Florida is not only the largest swing state with the most electoral votes up for grabs, but it has also remained one of the closest in the presidential polling. The latest PPP finds the state is essentially tied, with Obama technically having just a single point lead. From PPP:
PPP’s first likely voters poll of Florida finds that it’s likely to take its customary place as one of the most closely contested states in the country this year. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by the slightest of margins, 48-47, but Romney would take a small advantage in the state if he added either Marco Rubio or Condoleezza Rice to his ticket.
Speaking to the general discontent of the electorate this year Florida voters aren’t terribly enamored with either Obama or Romney. Voters narrowly disapprove of the job Obama’s doing, with 50% giving him poor marks to 47% who think he’s doing a good job. But they’re not terribly fond of Romney either, with 46% rating him favorably to 49% with a negative opinion. Still this parity between Obama’s approval and Romney’s favorability numbers is notable- Obama has tended to run well ahead of Romney on that front.
Obama and Romney are holding their party bases at basically equal levels, with 84% of Democrats supporting Obama and 83% of Republicans committed to Romney. Romney’s holding a 47-40 lead with independents. Obama’s up 51-44 with women, 61-34 with Hispanics, and 58-35 with young voters while Romney’s ahead 50-45 with men, 56-39 with whites, and 52-44 with seniors.
This is a large reason why you saw Mitt Romney recently travel to Israel as one of the few international stops in his trip. With the race so incredibly close in the state, how Florida’s large Jewish population breaks could make the difference between narrowly winning or losing its 29 electoral votes, which in turn could decide the whole election.