Florida is not only the largest swing state with the most electoral votes up for grabs, but it has also remained one of the closest in the presidential polling. The latest PPP finds the state is essentially tied, with Obama technically having just a single point lead. From PPP:
PPP’s first likely voters poll of Florida finds that it’s likely to take its customary place as one of the most closely contested states in the country this year. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by the slightest of margins, 48-47, but Romney would take a small advantage in the state if he added either Marco Rubio or Condoleezza Rice to his ticket.
Speaking to the general discontent of the electorate this year Florida voters aren’t terribly enamored with either Obama or Romney. Voters narrowly disapprove of the job Obama’s doing, with 50% giving him poor marks to 47% who think he’s doing a good job. But they’re not terribly fond of Romney either, with 46% rating him favorably to 49% with a negative opinion. Still this parity between Obama’s approval and Romney’s favorability numbers is notable- Obama has tended to run well ahead of Romney on that front.
Obama and Romney are holding their party bases at basically equal levels, with 84% of Democrats supporting Obama and 83% of Republicans committed to Romney. Romney’s holding a 47-40 lead with independents. Obama’s up 51-44 with women, 61-34 with Hispanics, and 58-35 with young voters while Romney’s ahead 50-45 with men, 56-39 with whites, and 52-44 with seniors.
This is a large reason why you saw Mitt Romney recently travel to Israel as one of the few international stops in his trip. With the race so incredibly close in the state, how Florida’s large Jewish population breaks could make the difference between narrowly winning or losing its 29 electoral votes, which in turn could decide the whole election.



12 Comments
Barry is going to lose because he doesn’t want to win and Willard does. God help us after Bishop Willard of Mt. Meadows becomes our Savior in Chief.
I’m a little surprised by this. Retired Jews supporting a Mormon??? A Mormon like Romney?
OTOH, it’s likely that Romney will have to win FL, VA, OH, and Mich to get enough electoral votes to win. THis could come down to the debates llike the ’60 election. For those of you who wewren’t around, Nixon sweated during the debates, looked “sinister” (not my description-voter’s responses) and Kennedy was, well……er…..”Kennedyesque”. Romney looks like a president but he talks like an idiot.
Romney looks like a
presidentplastic ken dollbutand he talks like an idiot.Couldn’t help myself.
This also explains why Gov. Rick Scott has been working overtime this year to disenfranchise as many of the voters who favor Obama as he can. Florida still has deep pockets of racist white men, wealthy retirees, and they always vote. Women, hispanics, and young voters will join African American voters on the rolls of the disenfranchised in great numbers in Republican-controlled areas of the state.
Jon, is there a path to the Presidency for Romney where he doesn’t win Florida? I don’t think there is.
Conversely, I can think of a couple for Obama that don’t include Florida.
Just saying I believe the state, like Ohio, is a MUST WIN for Romney and a clincher for Obama.
shows you 2 things.
how bad obama has been.
and how stupid the people are.
WOMEN? support romney while they are under attack from the republican party?
SENIORS supporting romney by that margin??
dont they know what will happen to SS and medicare under romney?
of course these numbers really are all about racism.
and of course these numbers are close enough where enough votes could simply be thrown away to give romney the win.
and anyone with a brain knows elections in this country long ago stopped being decided honestly.(BRAD blog).
america IS a banana republic.
held together by a corrupt government that wages non ending war and repression.
you think the people are still allowed to control that government with voting??
Who are they calling in this polling ??? I have believed for sometime that Romney would win by a squeaker simply because people will not vote because they don’t care for either one of them. However, I never get a call from a pollster and people are dropping land line phones for cell whose numbers are hard to get. So who has Land Lines…..elderly voters and they are definitely Romney supporters.
It seems to me there’s something wrong with these polls . . . If in Florida the actual voters that turn out to vote are evenly split between Dems and GOP, lets say it’s 37% each, and the other 26% are independents then according to these poll numbers shouldn’t Romney be winning by about 4%?
I guess what I’m saying is turnout is all that really matters!
I’ve seen quite a few polls say the GOP is very energized to vote and the Dems are only mildly enthusiastic to vote this time around, but I think all the polls are still using the 2008 formula that Dems will out number Reps by 4% to 6%, which just doesn’t seems possible this time around.
I don’t think that it is all about racism. Obama has really been a poor Democrat at best. He has never adhered to the liberal-progressive principles that the erstwhile Democratic used to be about. Obama took real pleasure in bashing his base (of which I used to a part. Obama’s current electoral woes in FL and VA are truly self-inflicted for the most part. But, so are Romeny’s gaffes. I have to acknowledge that Obama and Romeny are the worst respective Democratic and Republican candidates in a generation.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/07/obamas-second-term-agenda-cutting-social-security-medicare-andor-medicaid.html
The sad truth is that we may be able to stop by Congressional gridlock A president Rmoney from gutting and ultimately privatizing SS and Medicare.
If Oilbomber is reelected he’s got his Party on-board to make the cuts.
Both Legacy Party Candidates are the worst I’ve ever seen.
My thoughts exactly hackworth. I think we are in better shape to stop the hacking of SS with Romney. Obama really scares me when it comes to SS and Medicare.
I also agree, which is why I’ll be voting Green and not for the lesser of two evils. Of course, I’m in CA and I think Obama will still clobber Romney here, so even if I voted directly for Romney it wouldn’t matter.