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President Obama still holds the lead in the swing state of New Mexico. According to PPP Obama leads 49 percent to Romney at 44 percent, but this is a serious drop from earlier in the year. From PPP:
PPP’s newest New Mexico poll finds the race for President there getting a lot more competitive. Barack Obama continues to lead but his advantage is down to 5 points at 49-44, a far cry from the leads of 14 and 15 points he had on our previous two polls of the state.
The big difference between now and April comes with Democrats. Previously Obama was winning them 85-12 but now that lead is down to 73-21. New Mexico is a state, like North Carolina and Pennsylvania, where any chance at victory for Romney is going to require winning over a significant number of conservative Democrats. Right now he’s doing a pretty decent job of that.
New Mexico still looks like a lean Obama state, but a surprise choice by Mitt Romney of Susana Martinez as his running mate could make the state a toss up. With her on the ticket Obama’s lead drops all the way down to 48-47. That’s a testament to Martinez’s appeal with Democrats. She would reduce Obama’s lead with them even further to 70-25. There aren’t a lot of potential VP choices who would make a big difference in their home states, but there also aren’t a lot with a 56/34 approval spread.
It it interesting to see that Governor Susana Martinez actually makes a real impact on the presidential race. According to PPP early polling, other possible running mate choices for Romney produced little or no benefit in their home states. PPP found choosing Senator Marco Rubio would only improve Romney’s relative performance in Florida by a single point. Even worse, picking Senator Rob Portman would actually increase Obama’s lead in Ohio by a single point.
Gov. Martinez is a female and Hispanic Most importantly, it appears she could actually help improve Romney’s prospects in a swing state. On paper at least she looks like a solid choice, although she has said she is not interested in the position.
31 Comments
SM is terrible, if the people of NM could wake up and smell the coffee. Her popularity is in part due to her attack on non-citizens getting driver’s licenses, a story that has been spun to her advantage, playing on anti-immigrant attitudes. Her grandparents crossed the river from Mexico, incredible.
She’s really mean, but she is an attractive Hispanic woman who can speak well. She is a former DA who, as Governor, has not been able to win cases she has brought to court on practically any issue.
She is mean, that is the main thing to keep in mind.
Any word on Jill Stein’s running mate?
Oh Suzana, won’t you lie for me?
Cuz I come from Massachusetts with a banjo on my knee.
Why wage unnecessary foreign wars when you can create a Civil War in the US?
Cheri Honkala.
http://my.firedoglake.com/rossl/2012/07/11/jill-stein-announces-cheri-honkala-as-her-choice-for-vp/
Chica’s chirpiness won’t play with the rest of the country. Lose.
Romney needs a serious running mate. But there’s not one out there. Not a single one. *Mwop-mwop*
RU inferring that Suzana is bird-like?
Darth. Or his evil spawn.
This is grest news, we could get rid of La Tejana and possibly affect Zero chance of winning.
Too good to be true.
Funny. No, I imply nothing. I just don’t think she can save his bacon, that’s all.
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which means there will be another “leak” from the corporatist camp that will renew support for their dog in office
Look, the U.S. public is nothing more than ignorant marionettes so it shouldn’t be surprising that Romney is catching up to a moderate Republican.
Yeah, the last time there weren’t enough rebels held accountable and look what that has spawned. The south should have been salted and rebels hanging from every tree.
The American people are smart to the extent they want to tax corporations and rich people, and get out of war.
But the Democrats and Republicans? Not so much. They’re tribunes of the oligarchs, which is why you should never vote for any one of them, ever.
Something about her smile doesn’t work for me.
Seems forced, or something.
There is also this.
Hard to hide the mean.
Any drop by Obama can readily be contributed to the abominable skills of NM’s Democratic Party. In a state where citizens overwhelming identify with what used to be called Democratic values, those who control the party simply cannot for their lives mount a campaign. Our resident Tejana Governor won because her Dem opponent did not campaign. Dems are so busy courting DLC’ers like Emanuel that they forget that they’re living in one of the most poverty stricken states in the country. They constantly thumb their noses at their natural constituency, if they even notice them at all.
It is the campaigns that are responsible. The Democratic Party has no resources in NM or anywhere else to mount campaigns. I learned this when my neighbor ran for Congress. The campaigns suck all the resources, the party has little to do with it. This is why all the grassroots platforms in the country add up to little. The party has little power, except at the national level, and even there, they can hardly compete with the dialing for dollars that goes on with each campaign.
But also, yes, some people are not good at or do not like to campaign. We have seen that. Too.
And to be honest, there is at least one group in the state that has raised money to defend statewide seats to try to help some Democrats keep seats or get to Santa Fe. That is something the party could/should be doing. It is true that the party is not particularly effective.
“Democrats And The Iron Law Of Institutions”
http://www.tinyrevolution.com/mt/archives/001705.html
You’ll recognize the human truth of this the moment you read it.
Shame on you Jon Walker, it is absolutely inexcusable that you refuse to mention Gary Johnson when discussing New Mexico. Objectivity? Fairness? Those words used to apply to FDL. Now? Here was yet another opportunity you turned away from to at least pretend to care about what you’re doing.
Gary Johnson was a 2 time Republican Governor in this predominently Democratic state. He’s socially to the left of Obama (who isn’t?) and he’s fiscally a lot more responsible than either Obama or Romney. (He vetoed more Bills as Governor than all our other Governors combined.) He’s running as a Libertarian because the Republican power structure is just as opposed to him as Obama and our Corporate Oligarchs are.
Like him or not, Gary John is a GREAT protest vote.
Where is he on abortion?
I’d like to know that too. I like a lot of his positions, but this (the following/below in quotes) is all I found at his (Gary Johnson) website re abortion.
“Government Must Be Neutral on Personal Beliefs”
“WE ARE A NATION OF MANY PEOPLES AND BELIEFS. The only way to respect all citizens is to allow each to make personal decisions themselves.”
“Life is precious and must be protected. A woman should be allowed to make her own decisions during pregnancy until the point of viability of a fetus.”
I’ll admit I don’t really know when is “the point of viability of a fetus.” Anyone?
I agree that Johnson could be a great protest vote, and he plays in NM where he is known, maybe a bit in AZ too. But probably not much nationally.
The article says he is not a spoiler to either party, but O has to worry about every percentage point.
Johnson’s percentages have shrunk slightly in this poll from a prior.
He’s never been definitive. His answers read like the typical have-it-all-ways political fudge. I would describe him as pro-life with some early, but circumscribed, wiggle room.
“If men could get pregnant, abortion would be a sacrament.” Florynce Kennedy
Curious. A Johnson campaign email from someone named Judge Jim Gray I recently received quoted a recent Zogby Poll (whoever that is) showed him climbing to 5.3% nationally.
Don’t know, but I know what Obama’s done on social security, medicare, HCR, for our mega-center banks, against whistle blowers, against Gov’t. transparency, against people’s right to privacy, for torturing Bradley Manning, for a Pacific trade pact that far exceeds NAFTA for turning power over to global corporations …. I also know no President can overturn Roe on his own and that our Dems. in Congress are more likely to fight for Dem. ideals if the Pres. working against them is from another Party.
Bottom line for me – Obama the Pres. is NOT Obama the ’08 candidate and cares nothing about American workers.
Both parties now throw us (the 99%) under the wheels with abandon , no matter what they say. The only diff. is the D’s still try and maintain the fig leaf of concern for us. The Reptiles hate us openly and would like to get as rid as many of us as possible before escaping to their domed and buried cities to sit out the coming runaway warming event. Maybe, the coming generations of them will Morlock fashion develop a taste for our flesh?
Agree about Obama, but Gary Johnson is not my alternative.