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The number of young people who say they will “definitely vote” this November is very low compared with both other age groups and previous election cycles. Currently just 58 percent of registered voters under 30 definitely plan to vote in this election. From Gallup:
It is still early in the cycle so there is time for young voter engagement to improve. In both 2004 and 2008 the number of young people saying they planned to vote increased significantly from June to November.
That said, this year young voter engagement is starting from a much lower base. At roughly this same time in the 2004 cycle, 61 percent of this age group was definitely planning to vote, and in 2008 a full 69 percent of young voters said they were planning to vote in June.
Obama depended on strong turnout from young people to win in 2008, now it appears his campaign is going to struggle convincing them to come to the polls.
21 Comments
They are disenchanted.
I have a daughter who lives in DC. Got her BS in Political Science. Moved there, made a life and got her MA in communications. Has a great job, bought a condo.
My middle son who is 24 tried to work for the Obama campaign 3 years ago, and and a terrible experience. He finally found a job and is busy trying to make a life for himself.
I only know what I know. I can’t point fingers and say why.
Oh, that was my way of saying, I agree with you, Jon. And, thanks for pointing this out.
Maybe there’ll be some family discussions about this.
Who can blame them?
I certainly can’t.
Hi ‘Buzz.
Nice to see you again, Demi.
At last it’s becoming evident! The vast number of young people unaffiliated, unrecognized, uncounted, unacknowledged, who were energized by Obama’s promises and not only voted for him but eagerly talked him up in 2008 were so disappointed by his broken promises that they sat it out in 2010, which is why Democrats lost Congress. And if they sit it out in 2012, he is going to have a hard time being reelected. Something better change, and soon.
Usually someone points out that the evidence is suspect since young people tend to use mobile phones and not landlines. Still, you’re right: the trend exposes a history. And more, in 2004 there was a strong desire to oust Bush. That desire (along with Pagefuckergate) changed the make-up of Congress in 2006, and possibly heralded the momentum for the extraordinary 2008 support. So, Jon could as well have congratulated young voters for showing that they’re not insane like older voters.
From the link in Jon’s post:
Re young voters: They are disenchanted.
You can say that again. In 08, my middle son (just turned 24 and my daughter (about to be 23) were fired up to vote for change. My SO’s daughter (now 27) was also. Today all three of them are pretty much filled with cynicism that comes out as some version of “Why bother? We voted for change and this is what we got. Why should we vote for this guy again?”
I don’t discuss politics a lot with my kids or with my SO’s daughter, but when it comes up, they tell me that most of their friends feel pretty much like they do.
No idea what turnout in their age group will look like come November, but the excitement is long gone.
Interesting & valuable, thanks. I wonder about that 1000 random sample figure, although I’m familiar with its use in populations for extrapolations. Presumably it was valid when the population numbers were smaller, say, around 200 millions, and I’d like to know why 1000 continues to be valid for 300 millions. Any statisticians care to explain?
Rutgers University released a study in May that said only 51% of those that graduated college during the years 2006 through 2011 currently had full-time jobs and 11% were unemployed (sample size was 444 graduates). Further, the median starting salary for a first full-time job for 2006-2007 graduates was $30,000, but only $27,000 for 2009-2011 graduates.
This depression is doing long-term damage to wage scales and psyches.
Obama ignored what the liberal economists were saying needed to be done, and he will be out of a job in January. However, he’ll be cashing in millions of dollars in gratuities (as “speaking fees”) from the plutocrats soon after.
No knowledge of statistics on my part. Would be interesting to know a little more.
I am pleased to hear that young voters are disengaged from the American “electoral system”. This means that it is more likely that, through subsequent decades, reduced voter participation and general alienation will make it harder and harder for the very rich in the US to keep pulling the wool over everyone’s eyes.
When the turnout percentage of the population in a presidential year is 1% +/- .5%, we can all finally sit back and relax, because true progress will be right around the corner.
This exactly mirrors the responses/situation of my kids [age 26 & 24] and their friends.
My daughter in particular was an enthusiastic Obama supporter in ’08. Both voted for him & donated to him. This year: not at all.
The “OMG, the Republicans would be SO terrible” meme does seem to sway some of their friends, so who knows what will happen if they actually GET to the voting booth. But I think there may be an epidemic of hair washing and toilet bowl cleaning on election day. I feel bad about the down-ticket Democrats whom Obama has thereby killed.
For both of my kids and their friends — college grads in ’08 and ’10 — the lack of jobs has been a non-stop struggle. Why are they going to vote for a guy who won’t stand up for them, won’t speak out about unemployment or student debt. The LGBT issue is a winner, but I doubt it’s enough to win over these other issues.
Strangely, they don’t seem to care about the civil liberties issues or the war, like their parents.
But the Obama camp is nuts if they think they can just light a fire under these kids with a few pretty speeches. It’s gonna be hard to get ANYONE to believe in your promises when you have such a history of breaking them.
I’m wondering why, for ’04 & ’08, we don’t have the intenders-to-actuals comparisons; that would make the ’12 numbers more meaningful…
Was listening to a bit on the radio tonight that younger folks are much more engaged than they appear to be, just not in traditional political activities – more online, etc.
Sherrod Brown in Ohio is up by 11 points over the GOP idiot running against him, and the Rethug is outspending Brown about 8 to 1.
What this suggests to me, is that Brown stuck to his progressive ideals, backed up his words with actions and the voters in Ohio are responding.
I’m wondering if any of Obama’s genius political advisors are able to figure out how you keep your base of voters energized and ready to go to work for you.
Maybe Sherrrod Brown should conduct seminars for all the worthless Dems who can’t get re-elected. Every position Brown takes is supported by a majority of voters, it’s that simple. His attitude is screw the special interest money, things in America are so tilted towards the elites that he’s just going to work for the voters interest. And guess what. It works !!!
I am at the back end of this voter group; I will be voting this year; I voted in 2008 for Obama and will likely vote for the Greens in 2012.
I have a job thankfully, but worry about losing it and how long it would take to get a new one. My mother will be losing hers to offshoring sometime in the fall. I do not blame Obama for this; it is not his fault. However, it would make me feel better if I thought Obama gave a damn about regular folks, but it is clear to me by his actions that he does not.
Moreover, and worse, I think he and his campaign have made his supporters into meaner, nastier people. Obama constantly couches his “pivots” on gay marriage, immigration rights and other progressive issues as being “the right thing to do,” even though it takes him three plus years to get around them. And what do his supporters say? They cheer how “politically savvy” those moves are. A straight rejection of merits and principals-based decisions in favor of what is viewed at the moment as smart politics. It’s been a revelation how people who previously touted the “hope and change” promise of 2008 for gay and immigrant rights and other progressive issues have now come out very publicly in favor granting those rights only when they think doing so will have marginal political utility to their preferred brand.
Now with this election coming up, I get lectured about how awful the Republicans are and how any vote that is not for Obama and the Democrats will allow the Republicans to seize control and sh*t on my shoe. Okay, but Obama and the Democrats are currently p*ssing on my other shoe. That’s not a “better” choice. It’s strictly an appeal to tribalism. Forget that!
Thank you for a powerful statement. Much appreciated.
I hope you’ll continue to comment here.
I agree with Mauimom. Your comment, nik12, is powerful, exceptionally well-presented, and reflects both compassionate consideration and, as well, stellar “advice”, should certain people care to open their minds, and hearts. Your willingness to consider alternative possibilities suggests that the voter group, of which you are part, has within it those who will dare to think, and act, outside of the confines of a political “philosophy” which has permitted, even encouraged, the “off-shoring” of jobs, such that this nation can no longer provide what it needs, for itself, by itself … as well as removing the possibility of worthwhile endeavor from its people, both of these things undermine the well-being and true security of “the people” and the nation. Further, the economic depredations of the economic “elite” which were subsequently “allowed” and encouraged to the dire cost of the people, especially impacting the voter group, of which you and all of my children are part, were made possible by those who embrace that very same political “philosophy” … which is, in fact, nothing less than a greedy, self-serving pathology of privilege … one which deliberately undermines civil society and intentionally destroys the Rule of Law.
Thank you, nik12, for your steadfast courage and your demonstrated capacity to clearly state the obvious … when many people in this nation would prefer, apparently, to remain oblivious about and callously aloof from the consequence befalling their fellow human beings.
DW
Young voters are unhappy because they feel betrayed by a guy who from their pt. of view has ignored their “needs.” The stagnant economy and high rate of unemployment are just one disappointment they feel Barry hasn’t made any effort to fix. The overt war mongering , spying, torture and general belligerence of this regime are grating. The worst thing however, is that Barry has turned out to be just another self interested egotist and liar and he’s arrogant about it as well. What does he expect after 3.5 yrs. of kicking the shit out of his own base? Many of us older voters are used to holding our noses and doing the lesser weevils dance, but these kids aren’t. They expected him to deliver and he let them and the country/world down big time. You don’t campaign on Hope and Change and then don’t deliver or worse deliver more of the same old Corp. centered BULLSHIT and do it with a shrug and an attitude like “what did you really expect kids?”. That he drew another GOP empty suit like Willard to run against was a lucky draw and if he wins it’s only because even Willards base can’t stand the guy. It’s a very unhappy electorate that will go to the polls this Nov. Nobody is happy with either of these two.
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