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(image: Cain and Todd Benson / flickr)
It seems almost every day there are new presidential polls of swing states showing the race is tight but with the advantage for President Obama, today is no different. New Marist-NBC News polls show Obama has a small lead in Michigan and is effectively tied with Romney in North Carolina and New Hampshire.
Michigan
Marist (6/24-25)
Barack Obama 47%
Mitt Romney 43%
Other 1%
Undecided 10%
North Carolina
Marist (6/24-25)
Barack Obama 46%
Mitt Romney 44%
Other 1%
Undecided 9%
New Hampshire
Marist (6/24-25)
Barack Obama 45%
Mitt Romney 45%
Other 1%
Undecided 8%
The fact that the race is tight in North Carolina is expected, but I was surprised to see the poll showing the race in New Hampshire completely tied.
Back in 2008 Obama actually won the state by a respectable 54.1% to 44.5%. It was one of his strongest “swing states” that year. He preformed better in New Hampshire than he did in other swing states like Virgina, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Colorado. I would find it rather surprising to see Obama lose New Hampshire but win North Carolina.
On the question of who would be better able to handle the economy, voters in these three states are split almost perfectly down the middle, tied. That is relatively good news for the Obama campaign. The economy is basically the core of the Romney message, so if he is not clearly winning on that issue, he doesn’t have much else going for him.
10 Comments
I wonder how much “Second Home State” advantage we should ascribe to New Hampshire voters for Romney. They are his co-citizens of New Hampshire, after all, as well as being served by the then-fawning Boston media during his governorship.
I don’t think Romney has anything to run on beside the economy.
Personal warmth?
Understands people like me?
Has similar hobbies and activities?
Nope.
Are there margins of error on those polls?
Likely NC really leans Romney at this point – unless the racists and anti-Mormon bigots who are lying or refusing to say balance out. Those percentages split an estimated 4.7 million votes. For a third party to pull 10% requires 470,000 votes. So Greens, Libertarians, other third parties that are declaring in the poll have a population size of only 47,000 or so total at the moment. Some of the 9% undecided might really be third party supporters or folks sitting out.
Right wing Superpacs have been running anti-Obama ads for the last 12-14 weeks. Their “message” is obviously having an impact.
Who cares and what does it matter? After today’s disastrous SCOTUS rulling, it’s clear that we’ve been delivered into fascism. All that that remains is to fill in some details. And as for that talk about the evil people Romney would appoint to SCOTUS, hell, it was John Freaking Roberts who cast the deciding vote on the ACA.
Sure, he can try to run on the economy. Of course, he is a corporate raider who bankrupted companies and put people out of work, so maybe that platform is a bit iffy.
Sad to have to say it, but he can also run on the “I’m not black” platform.
Obama needs to do very well at the Debates
the USA economy is going no where, and may be worse by nov 2012
if Obama can develop more super lies, about how he cares about the USA middle class he has a chance
North Carolina is going to be tricky, he is going to need blacks and hispanics to turn out like did in 2008 to have any chance, and this may not happen
New Hampshire may just go Romney, due to the fact Obama = Romney, and a lot of people in New Hampshire know this. “Obama needs to draw more imaginary lines in the sand, at the debates tricking people into thinking he is JFK and not Bush 3.
Michigan = Union country, and Obama better hope a lot of Union member hold their noses and vote for him, because most Union members consider Obama to be scum.
What may happen and this has a strong possibility of happening is the US House goes Dem, and Senate goes Dem, and the White House goes Romney.
A lot of real progressives would like this outcome and they may get it.
because if Hispanics, Blacks, Single Woman come out to vote for OBAMA in huge numbers, and Real Progressives split their votes by not voting for Obama, Obama will probably lose. “Obama is going to need every vote he can find to win in November.
If I was Romney I would hang the Individual Mandate around Obama neck!
Most dems are going to scream and lie about how they are for the public option, single payer, etc. Obama will not be able to do this.
Obama needs to keep lying to win! this is his only hope.
Going by the gut, I would have expected Michigan to be the wild card of the three, but I claim no expertise on it.
And my gut says Amendment One speaks for North Carolina, not that it’s surprising from a Southern state. I just would have given it the benefit of more intelligence until that travesty.
As for New Hampshire, I’m surprised that anyone is surprised, speaking as a New Englander. New Hampshire has a lot of things about it that I respect but it can be rabidly conservative. The Connecticut River serves as a divide between NH and VT in more ways than geographic.
Vote for Jill Stein.
This is why we can’t have nice things.
It may be easy to be a financial 1%er, but it sure sucks being the “Other 1%”er that sees both parties whoring themselves out to the corporations while watching republicans mindlessly cheering their rights away while democrats severely chastize principled liberals for not supporting the corporate whoring regime.