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President Obama holds a significant lead in the three biggest swing states this year: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Together these swing states hold 67 electoral votes. New polling from Quinnipiac found Obama leading Mitt Romney by more than each poll’s margin of error. From Quinnipiac:
| 1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? | |
FL OH PA Obama 45% 47% 45% Romney 41 38 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 DK/NA 9 9 10 |
Not surprisingly Romney is closer to Obama in Florida, whose voters are slightly older and more Republican leaning. Florida is also unique in having a large pro-Republican Hispanic community.
What is interesting is the size of Obama’s lead in Ohio. Although a PPP poll this week showed only a three-point lead, this poll’s nine point lead is substantial. While Obama could easily win even without Florida, it is hard to picture many potential paths to victory for Romney without Ohio.
One of the problems for Romney is that he is still not liked by voters. His favorability rating is net negative in all three states but is particular bad in Ohio. In Ohio just 32 percent view him favorably while 46 percent view him unfavorably.
5 Comments
I’m sure Obama is favored by the PTB as well. He’s been an exceptionally productive whore. Also some GOPers will vote for Obama. They’d be fools not to.
There are some things that have to happen before the election in order for Obama to get the support he needs to win the election, “I believe”. Every thing involving the Democratic Party is not on the front page.
Claire McCaskil, Democratic Senator from MO announced that she would not attend the Democratic convention. That’s not a defection; she is voicing her dissatisfaction with Obama in a manner to reach Democrats only. Her excuse for not attending the convention was quite plausible.
If others announce they can not attend the convention, he might get the message. Obama’s problems will not be revealed in the polls.
I doubt the polls tell us much just now. First bc they are not blow outs and secondly, it is just too far out. There are several more months on economic reports, etc.to come.
Are we expected to be overjoyed that the Puppet-in-Chief is ahead of the Puppet-Wanna’-Be-in-Chief in the polls? A pox on both their houses, since we’ll continue to suffer either way.
I’m surprised about OH & PA.
1) My in-laws live in OH, and we got together with them last weekend. They cite the Republican control of the governorship and the Secretary of State office, recalling what happened in OH the last time this occurred: wide-spread voter suppression, or, suppression of Democratic votes. E.g., insufficient number of voting machines in Dem-dominated areas. Plus the usual Republican “vote-counting” shenanigans.
2) I was just in south central PA and amazed at the right-wing media: “editorial pages” in the local papers filled with the usual RW nuts; non-stop tv ads courtesy of the CofC, Karl Rove, et al. [I should note that VA is blanketed with these as well, dumping on Tim Kaine in his race vs. George Makaka Allen.]
Finally, I’m wondering when ANY of these clowns are going to wake up to the fact that “we suck less” is NOT going to work on hoards of people who voted for Obama in 2008. They’re just not going to come to the polls, no matter how frightening the picture Obama & Co. try to paint of what a Romney presidency would look like.
Former Obama supporters aren’t donating, aren’t volunteering. What makes these clowns think they’re gonna vote?