President Obama holds a significant lead in the three biggest swing states this year: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Together these swing states hold 67 electoral votes. New polling from Quinnipiac found Obama leading Mitt Romney by more than each poll’s margin of error. From Quinnipiac:
|1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?|
FL OH PA Obama 45% 47% 45% Romney 41 38 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 DK/NA 9 9 10
Not surprisingly Romney is closer to Obama in Florida, whose voters are slightly older and more Republican leaning. Florida is also unique in having a large pro-Republican Hispanic community.
What is interesting is the size of Obama’s lead in Ohio. Although a PPP poll this week showed only a three-point lead, this poll’s nine point lead is substantial. While Obama could easily win even without Florida, it is hard to picture many potential paths to victory for Romney without Ohio.
One of the problems for Romney is that he is still not liked by voters. His favorability rating is net negative in all three states but is particular bad in Ohio. In Ohio just 32 percent view him favorably while 46 percent view him unfavorably.