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The Massachusetts Senate race is probably the most important — but so far least exciting — race of the year. Control of the Senate could easily hinge on this one race. But the contest remains completely tied according to PPP.
PPP’s newest poll on the Massachusetts Senate race finds it dead even, with Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown both at 46%. Warren’s now been at that exact same 46% mark in three PPP polls in a row dating back to last September. Brown’s increased his support from levels of 41% and 44% on those previous two polls.
Brown’s numbers have experienced a bit of a resurgence in the last few months. His approval rating is back over 50%, with 51% of voters approving of him to 38% who disapprove. He had been at 45/42 and 44/45 on PPP’s last two polls. Brown’s approval with independents who have an opinion about him is now better than 2:1 at 60/29. And he’s reclaiming some of his crossover support from Democrats with 30% approving of him, up from 23% in March.
What makes this race boring is that there seems to have been very little movement for months despite it being a high profile contest with several recent developments. Every single public poll for the past three months has found the race effective tied, with Warren and Brown separated by less than the margin of error, and it looks like that pattern should hold for awhile.
If the race still remains effectively tied going into November, I do think the advantage will be with Warren. The electorate of the state is extremely Democratic. In addition, very close races can often be decided by turnout, and in Massachusetts the Democratic party infrastructure is much more significant than the Republican party’s.
9 Comments
So Warren is another Coakley?
and we care, why?
Even if Warren is the progressive voice she pretends to be, we already know that she’s a spelunker as she demonstrated by not fighting to head the consumer protection bureau she conceived. One more useless Obamabot in the US Senate won’t help the cause of the 99%.
We under-estimate Warren?
If you want to know about someone character, look at their enemies!
Bankers and other Rich People don’t really like Elizabeth Warren. “this makes her o-kay with me”
Elizabeth saw the trojan horse Obama in action, as he stabbed numerous progressives in the back.
Does anyone think Obama really wanted to put Mrs. Warren over consumer protection? anyone?
Let us not forget, Obama is currently working on a Trade Deal that some say is bigger than NAFTA! For God’s Sake! that will send more USA jobs off shore
thus the odd place USA citizens find themselves in? Obama and Clinton do NAFTA deals to kill the USA middle class, and Romney does any thing for an extra dollar to kill the USA middle class?
I don’t think we have a lesser of two evil situation? we have people running for USA president who hate USA citizens!
this race will not be close, Warren will win easily
The race should be a no brainer but half of the country doesn’t have a brain, just a nervous system, so it’s not surprising it will be close.
I cannot believe this race is tied – this is MASSACHUSETTS for heaven’s sakes….
There’s still time for Obama to show up and endorse Brown, as he endorsed his mentor Joe Lieberman over Ned Lamont in Connecticut.
Jon Walker, is it your job to post state-by-state horse race stats from now til November? Because you could just keep running the same post and save yourself the trouble: “The race is close, and goes back and forth in several states.”
“Bankers and other Rich People don’t really like Elizabeth Warren.”
Are you sure?
I am very far away from this race but I keep getting asked for money to support Warren’s campaign. Other than some seemingly anti wall street / big bank credentials, I keep hearing reports that she is not exactly a progressive on other issues.
It seems dismal and out of whack that any sort of democrat cannot poll a lead in Massachusetts when elsewhere on FDL we find an article showing Obama leading in OH, FL and PA.