The Massachusetts Senate race is probably the most important — but so far least exciting — race of the year. Control of the Senate could easily hinge on this one race. But the contest remains completely tied according to PPP.
PPP’s newest poll on the Massachusetts Senate race finds it dead even, with Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown both at 46%. Warren’s now been at that exact same 46% mark in three PPP polls in a row dating back to last September. Brown’s increased his support from levels of 41% and 44% on those previous two polls.
Brown’s numbers have experienced a bit of a resurgence in the last few months. His approval rating is back over 50%, with 51% of voters approving of him to 38% who disapprove. He had been at 45/42 and 44/45 on PPP’s last two polls. Brown’s approval with independents who have an opinion about him is now better than 2:1 at 60/29. And he’s reclaiming some of his crossover support from Democrats with 30% approving of him, up from 23% in March.
What makes this race boring is that there seems to have been very little movement for months despite it being a high profile contest with several recent developments. Every single public poll for the past three months has found the race effective tied, with Warren and Brown separated by less than the margin of error, and it looks like that pattern should hold for awhile.
If the race still remains effectively tied going into November, I do think the advantage will be with Warren. The electorate of the state is extremely Democratic. In addition, very close races can often be decided by turnout, and in Massachusetts the Democratic party infrastructure is much more significant than the Republican party’s.