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With a large African American population and growing research triangle, North Carolina is seen as one of the Obama campaign’s top targets to “expand” the election map beyond the more traditional battleground states. That is why it was selected for the DNC national convention. Unfortunately for the Obama team, though, a new PPP poll shows Romney gaining serious ground in the state and now holding a two point lead. From PPP:
PPP’s newest North Carolina poll finds Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 48-46. It’s a small lead but still significant in that it’s the first time we’ve found Romney ahead in our monthly polling of the state since October.
Romney’s gained 7 points on Obama in North Carolina since April, when the President led by a 49-44 margin. Since then Romney’s erased what was a 51-38 lead for Obama with independents and taken a 42-41 lead with that voting group. He’s also increased his share of the Democratic vote from 15% to 20%, suggesting he’s convincing some more conservative voters within the party to cross over.
While Obama technically won North Carolina in 2008, it was by less than half a percent, and that was during a Democratic wave election. Almost no one expects Obama to come anywhere close to matching the overall level of support he had last time.
Obviously we are very far out from the election, but this another piece of positive news for Mitt Romney.
13 Comments
The Administration had to know that they would lose some of the conservative black vote over the marriage equality issue. And, they further had to know that holding the convention in Charlotte (a heavily black populated town) could not offset this loss, completely. They must not believe that they need North Carolina to win.
Blue
Its North Carolina shouldn’t the title be Mitt finally gets a lead in a Red State he should have had in his pocket the entire time:)
Unless the African American population is 51% we should not be expecting to carry this state the fact Mitt will have to fight for it is interesting.
I’m betting that Romney is going to win this election, mostly because the Democratic base is discouraged. Obama isn’t going to enjoy the fanatic level of support he got in 2008. All those students and unions and enviros and progressives who hit the streets and worked hard just aren’t going to make the same effort this time around. Plus, the GOP has had four years to rig the system and exclude a lot of voters from the electorate. And, Romney will probably pick a Latino running mate to tap into that demographic, he won’t be burdened with a loser like Sarah Palin.
C’mon, Obama–blow up some more innocent people with drones! Raid some more legal medicinal marijuana dispensaries! Give Wall Street more praise! That will make people feel good about voting for you, right?
The only possible good thing that could happen would be if Obama decides that since he’s gonna lose in November he might as well tell the truth. I’m not sure he has it in him, but I think the American people might respond to that, especially given the phony he’s been so far and the phony he’s up against.
Bulworth, anyone?
Im with you eagleye…..I think he is done. I don’t think the Obama people understand how many people who supported him last time do not intend to vote. No one is interested in either of the two candidates because nothing will be done for us and everyone knows it. Although the silver lining I see in all of this is that the bottom is going to tank and best it be that Romney is our courageous leader when it does.
I don’t think the Obama people understand how many people who supported him last time do not intend to vote.
I’m not totally sure Obama will lose, but it’s a real possibility. There are many, many people for whom Obama was the last hope that the political system can work for ordinary people. A few hifalutin’ speeches are not going to bring that hope back.
Your right PhilK and I was one of them
With Obama the question is not if Social Security and Medicare will be screwed – but when.
Heck – Andrea (wife of Greenspan) on her MSNBC show keeps selling the “financial disaster” that deficit reduction via Clinton Tax rates would be (she does not mention deficit reduction or Clinton tax rates – just says the financial disaster) as she demands the Dems cave early to anything the GOP want.
Who gives a damn about who wins in 2012 if the resulting effect on our lives is the same?
Obama has spent four years spitting on the people who worked their tails off to elect him. That, plus the Citizens’-United tsunami of money that will be behind Romney, should make the difference, not counting hinky variables like who wins the Diebold primary.
And according to the author of the Social Security book who did the book salon here a few Saturdays back, we’re likelier to save Social Security with Romney in, because the Democrats will magically remember they’re Democrats and will fight for SS if only to presrve a smidgen of brand identification, whereas they’ll follow President Zero over a cliff.
bluewombat–
I’ve always believed that, too. It makes perfect sense. When the President is a Democrat, too, Dems will give him cover (and have that as an excuse to their constituents), and vice versa.
I think back to how quick the Democrats were to stand up against Bush. I truly believe, now, that it was all about denying Bush and the Republicans the chance to destroy the social safety net, so that the Democratic Party could do it. All because they want to curry favor with the 1%-3% who truly run this country and finance their campaigns.
Blue
Many of us are voting third party. As someone on FDL pointed out some time ago you need to vote so that the message of why O loses (if he does) will not be misconstrued as apathy but as dissatisfaction with the D’s and R’s.