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It looks like Democrats will manage to hold on to Arizona’s 8th Congressional district, the seat once held by “Gabby” Giffords, according to a new poll by Public Policy Polling. The firm found that Democratic candidate Ron Barber holds a commanding 12 point lead over Republican Jesse Kelly.
A special election is taking place tomorrow as a result of Gabby Gifford’s decision to resign after sustaining serious injuries from the tragic shooting incident. From PPP:
Democrats are headed for a victory in tomorrow’s special election to replace Gabby Giffords in the House, but the relevance of the result in Arizona to much of anything else appears limited.
Democrat Ron Barber leads with 53% to 41% for Republican Jesse Kelly, with Green Party candidate Charlie Manolakis polling at 4%. Barber is well liked by voters in the district, sporting a 54/38 favorability rating. Kelly, meanwhile, has very high negatives with only 37% of voters rating him positively while 59% have a negative opinion.
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Barber appears to have the race pretty much already locked up. 57% of voters say they’ve already cast their ballots, and with that group Barber enjoys a 21 point advantage at 58-37. People planning to vote tomorrow are much more evenly split with 46% for Barber and 45% for Kelly.
This is positive news for Democrats, since natural political leanings of the district should theoretically have made this a close race.
Given the very unusual circumstance of this particular special election, though, I would caution against trying to extrapolate national implications from the vote tomorrow.
4 Comments
I know it’s constitutionally required, but this is one of those times when it just makes you shake your head. The taxpayers of AZ are going to pay for an election tomorrow, and then another one in less than five months for this same seat.
The cost of elections aren’t so high as to make one worry too often, but jeebus, less than five months does seem like whatever is spent could’ve been spent a lot better on something else and some other way of dealing with this for five months be found. (okay, technically, more than five months since the winner tomorrow will be seated in the lame duck session, but if some sort of “adjustment” could be made then when the winner in Nov. takes this seat could be “adjusted” too).
I dunno, just saying it seems like a waste of resources and that there should be a better alternative.
YMMV
“Positive news for Democrats”; the other Republicans.
It’s been very helpful that Republicans had their candidates for this race pose with guns. Nothing screams louder “Would you vote for an A-hole like this”? Brilliant strategy TeaTards.
Well, if “holding” the seat for the Dems is a good thing, it is not a bad thing that he will (if he wins) have those months to seal the deal and go on to a lasting (2 yr) victory in November.