The Romney campaign has been making noises about how they could make a play for Michigan, given Romney’s family roots in the state, but a recent poll shows he would face a serious uphill climb. PPP found Obama with an incredible 14 point lead. From PPP:
Barack Obama won’t have to worry too much about holding Michigan for the Democrats this fall- he leads Mitt Romney 53-39 there, a lead little changed from PPP’s last poll of the state in February when his advantage was 54-38.
Romney just doesn’t have much of a home field advantage in the state. Only 24% of voters consider him to be a Michigander to 65% who do not. And only 35% have a favorable opinion of him to 57% with a negative view.
It’s not just Romney’s unpopularity helping Obama in Michigan though. Obama’s own approval rating is at a record high in our polling of the state with 53% of voters giving him good marks to 41% who disapprove, including a 50/43 standing with independents.
In two month or so we will see if Romney’s internal polling is finding something similar when they are forced to start really spending money on a ground operation and advertising. While Michigan’s 16 electoral college votes and large white blue collar population always seems like a potential target for Republicans, in the end I don’t think Romney will make a serious effort to win the state. The state’s slight Democratic leaning combined with success of the auto bailout will likely make it not worth the investment for the Romney team.