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The Romney campaign has been making noises about how they could make a play for Michigan, given Romney’s family roots in the state, but a recent poll shows he would face a serious uphill climb. PPP found Obama with an incredible 14 point lead. From PPP:
Barack Obama won’t have to worry too much about holding Michigan for the Democrats this fall- he leads Mitt Romney 53-39 there, a lead little changed from PPP’s last poll of the state in February when his advantage was 54-38.
Romney just doesn’t have much of a home field advantage in the state. Only 24% of voters consider him to be a Michigander to 65% who do not. And only 35% have a favorable opinion of him to 57% with a negative view.
It’s not just Romney’s unpopularity helping Obama in Michigan though. Obama’s own approval rating is at a record high in our polling of the state with 53% of voters giving him good marks to 41% who disapprove, including a 50/43 standing with independents.
In two month or so we will see if Romney’s internal polling is finding something similar when they are forced to start really spending money on a ground operation and advertising. While Michigan’s 16 electoral college votes and large white blue collar population always seems like a potential target for Republicans, in the end I don’t think Romney will make a serious effort to win the state. The state’s slight Democratic leaning combined with success of the auto bailout will likely make it not worth the investment for the Romney team.
11 Comments
Sorry Jon Mitt is a big ego CEO who likes to fire people especially I suspect if they tell him No! Mitt has publicly said many times he can win Michigan. The book “King of the Mountain ” suggests that the more power a Leader has the less likely they are to admit they are ever wrong.
Case in point Bush upon being asked what was the biggest mistake of his Presidency and he could not think of a single mistake.
I expect Mitt to throw tons of cash at Michigan and flip flop on any issue that polling says Michigan finds popular.
It should be mentioned that Michigan like Ohio and Indiana are all in the top ten biggest electoral states win any 6 of the ten and its almost impossible to lose the election.
Michigan like Ohio and Indiana are all getting better because Obama bailed out the auto industry. Plus Obama raised the Miles Per Gallon of new cars.
With high gas prices forcing people to buy new cars that get better MPG the American car companies thanks to Obama actually have cars to sell them now.
A Consumer Reports survey found fuel economy is the No. 1 concern of buyers. Thirty-seven percent of people shopping for a new vehicle said mileage was the top issue, 17 percent said quality, 16 percent safety, 14 percent value and only 6 percent performance.
That’s a major shift from the days of cheap gasoline when horsepower and 0-60 mph times ruled, and fuel efficiency was an afterthought.
The survey showed two-thirds of vehicle owners expect to get better mileage in a new vehicle.
Fuel economy of all new vehicles sold in the United States hit 24.1 mpg in March before slipping to 23.9 mpg in April, the University of Michigan’s Transportation Research Institute said.
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2012/05/27/Auto-Outlook-Drivers-wanting-better-mileage-look-to-foreign-cars/UPI-98951338111000/
The Big three still need tp work to recapture market share from the Japanese who still lead in fuel efficient cars. But if Obama had not raised the MPG average of every car produced the Auto Bailout would have likely failed.
The Free Market types who said Government should not mandate higher MPG for cars and should not bailout the auto industry have been proven wrong.
The big three executives who for decades said America could not make money selling small cars have also been proven wrong. (Maximum Bob of GM fame comes to mind)
Once again the Left is right:)
> In two month or so we will see if
Oh God, yes! Don’t deny us a comprehensive seven-part state-of-the-horse-race poll investigation in July for the November election! Use ALL of your powers of observation and analysis to fully inform us of what may or may not be happening and what might possibly happen, or maybe not, at that crucial point in time only four months before that election! Please baby, please! Baby baby please! Baby please, baby!
If we get lucky I will be right about Mitt trying to protect his ego will and win Michigan even if it means spending tons of resources.
Mitt knows if he can win autoworkers in Michigan he can get autoworkers in Ohio and Indiana that 3 of the top ten states with the most electoral votes.
This will likely force Mitt to campaign on his flip flop that he supported the Auto Makers bailout and that it was his idea in the first place.
Auto Workers however know this issue even better than the political junkies at the Lake and are therefore more likely to get pissed the more Mitt lies and tries to buddy up to them even as he keeps attacking Unions.
Mitt’s Michigan, Ohio and Indiana campaigns I am sure will be pass the popcorn events.
Yes because Mitt is such a great candidate people love his ideas to give the rich tax breaks because they create jobs. People love Mitt’s firm stands on issues like the Auto Bailout and Abortion we all know how Great a debater Mitt is from the GOP debates and Mitt’s people skills are legendary
Ideas, Cred on the issues he now claims to support, debate and people skills Mitt fails with voters.
Obama is suffering in the polls because he did not go FDR and create as many jobs as economists said was needed to stop the depression.
However Mitt heck the entire GOP field sucked GOP polling numbers went down the more the GOP debated.
If anything Jon’s numbers I think are too rosy for Mitt.
Must you make a mockery of my mockery? ;)
Sorry :)
I would hope that folks in solid red or blue states would vote third party, and that in swing states they work hard against the GOP.
I’m disappointed and sometimes angry with Obama, but he doesn’t frighten me. The GOP does.
Don’t worry the third party movement is still strong and will keep getting stronger even if Obama is elected because while Obama is better than Mitt Obama still is not fixing the economy enough.
It is funny though that the one time Obama went against his free market principles bailed out the auto industry and then forced them to make more high mpg cars that that would be his best ticket to reelection.
Obama thought his Healthcare Comprise would be his big ticket but compromise is failure and its probably the biggest issue now working against Obama.
More meaningless Dem party drivel about another meaningless election.
Michigan, home of the Reagan Democrats. The “working class” can be bought off with a few catchy slogans and a mind numbing repetition of slick political adds.