With less than two weeks until the recall election in Wisconsin, it appears Republican Governor Scott Walker currently stands a very good chance of surviving the effort. Two new polls out today confirm Walker leads Democrat Tom Barrett in their rematch. A poll for Wisconsin Public Radio has Walker leading by five and a poll for Reason has him up by eight.
St. Norbet College/Wisconsin Public Radio (5/17-22)
Scott Walker (R) 50%
Tom Barrett (D) 45%
Not sure 5%
Reason-Rupe poll by ORC International (5/14-18)
Scott Walker (R) 50%
Tom Barrett (D) 42%
Don’t Know 6%
Refused 3%
Although the race remains relatively tight, all the recent polling constantly shows Walker with a small single digit lead. While polling special elections is difficult because so much depends on what could end up being very unusual turnout, at this point Walker is a strong favorite to maintain his office.



57 Comments
This is disastrous, and can be directly laid at the doorstep of the Democratic party, who pushed an uninspiring anti-union candidate over a progessive. I’d love to get Norske’s take on this. We haven’t seen him in ages.
Nothing will take the wind out of the revolution like a defeat here in Wisconsin. I don’t understand this. Wisconsin had been a “good state”. Mostly blue, well fed, pro-labor, common-sense Americans.
At this point, I see only one option, send in the BIG guns…..Brad, Angelina and Oprah.
How can the Democrats blow this? How can they possibly blow this? It’s a classic example of the Democrats taking the hopes and aspirations of the middle and working classes and the poor and harmlessly diffusing them.
I wonder if Feingold, months ago, thought his presence wasn’t needed for a win. If that’s so, can he sleep at night now?
If we had a president or Dem leaders who had any spine they would have gone there and worked for the Dem candidate. But, of course, that would not have been bipartisan and might have hurt the feelings of the Republicans. What a bunch of losers.
Is there any hunch on the Senate?
One poll is within the margin of error. The other tilts to Walker. How many will be motivated to go out and vote just to save Walker?
How many will be motivated to go out and vote to dump Walker?
It seems to me that those who wish to dump him would make a greater effort to get off their asses and vote (even if they have to vote for a stinky DINO).
After all the fan fare. this is depresssing.
Anti-union forces are going to shout this from the rooftops once Walker is re-elected. Better to not recall at all than have this happen (recall & lose). Total fail.
Just one BIG disappointment after another from this administration and the party.
Too bad the dems are such pathetic whipped (or complicit) losers they didn’t even have a ‘roided has-been adulterous sex-harrasser movie star to step up to the guvship like the pukes did in CA.
Srsly, can anybody here play this game? Clearly not.
Heh, how can they blow this? Well that’s obvious for someone who has seen outside the Hegelian Dialectic; the Democrats are just as corrupt and amoral as the Republicans, duh.
Being formerly a supporter of Democrats myself (till Obama, it’s kind of amusing looking inside the bubble from the outside and seeing all the fish-like Democrats flailing around, unable to see why they are still getting creamed by Republicans despite being the “good guys who stand up for the little people”, hah.
Christopher Hedges said that when he attended Harvard Divinity School all the great liberal students and faculty there who loved poor people so much still couldn’t stand the smell of them. Understanding that quote would go a long ways towards understanding why the Democratic Party is imploding, and why it deserves to implode.
The whole problem here is Barrett.
If the Democrats had chosen, oh, I dunno, say RUSS FEINGOLD, and let him go out and make a populist case after Walker’s bullshit, I’d bet dollars to donut holes that Feingold would be up 10 points. And all the money in the world wouldn’t help Walker.
But when you’ve got someone who can’t even at least TALK a good game, it’s over. I know Russ has made errors (I believe we ALL have) but I’d bet he would be mopping the floor with Walker’s ass right now.
Or, really, anyone that could at least talk a good progressive game. Hell, Obama would beat the shit out of Walker. And Obama is about as progressive as Ronald Reagan on a conservative day. But he at least can talk a good progressive game.
That’s ALL it would’ve taken for the D’s to accopmlish this. Instead, they put forth, the one candidate who can’t/won’t talk a good progressive game.
Almost sounds like they didnt want to win, doesn’t it???
Raise your hand if you think the flipped voting won’t be in effect, and if it’s eligible for a recount, that will also be honest.
I imagine the vote-flipping algorithms are a few light years advanced from whatever the investigators had cracked before. This will be an important proof-of-concept dress rehearsal for November.
Wrong. Polling has been pretty consistent on this–it didn’t matter who ran against Walker. Walker was up in every hypothetical match-up against any candidate that the Dems could run. WI isn’t nearly as Progressive as you want to believe, and the Democratic Party could see the writing on the wall from the very beginning. Conservative Super PACS were going to throw everything it takes into this race, and as much as we would like to believe that voters won’t fall for their message, they will. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if the Senate swings to the Cons this election because of the money that is going to be spent, and in spite of the optimistic predictions about the war chest of the Dems, I think they and the Progressive movement are in deep, deep trouble. Remember the Golden Rule — Those with the Gold, rule. If this is the outcome on a national scale this country will slide backwards to the 1800s, only it will be as though the South won the Civil War and will become unrecognizable. More attacks on Roe v Wade, the “Welfare State” and the environmental movement. Has anyone seen the TV spot by the coal industry attacking EPA regulations and blaming the EPA and environmentalists for high gas prices? You ain’t seen nuthin’ yet.
The WI Dems went with Barrett because he polled better than Falk against Walker. If Falk had been the nominee Walker would have a fifteen-point lead.
If you really want to blame someone, blame Feingold and/or Kohl. Walker has millions in lie-filled ads pounding the airwaves 24:7 here. In contrast you see around 1 Barrett ad per day, if that. And to be honest, Barret’s ads are terrible. Falk’s ads were even worse and she would be losing right now by double digits if she had won the nomination.
The reality of the situation is that Feingold, Kohl, and Barret’s campaign could obviously give two shits whether or not Walker loses, and it shows.
Oh, and after we find out that the turnout for the 18-29 demographic is around 20% you can blame them too.
Elections are not the answer. We are just going to have to find other ways to enact “recalls”
Methinks that the democrats have forgotten the line in the TV show West Wing where president Bartlett says that we do not only fight the fights that we can win but we fight the fights that are worth fighting for.
The Dems appear to have forgotten that principle. If Walker wins, then he becomes a Manchurian candidate for president in 2016 (sponsored by the Koch brothers).
It’s get out the vote, same as it ever was. Ditching Dean’s 50 State Strategy just because Rahm wanted to stick it to him and deflating those organizers with the top down OFA bullshit has more to do with this than the Dem primary voters picking Barrett. Our elites don’t really give a damn about anything other then their egos and their future millions in the “private sector.”
H.L. Mencken: When a candidate for public office faces the voters he does not face men of sense; he faces a mob of men whose chief distinguishing mark is the fact that they are quite incapable of weighing ideas, or even of comprehending any save the most elemental — men whose whole thinking is done in terms of emotion, and whose dominant emotion is dread of what they cannot understand. … All the odds are on the man who is, intrinsically, the most devious and mediocre — the man who can most adeptly disperse the notion that his mind is a virtual vacuum.
There’s a good NYT article on this: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/27/magazine/how-did-wisconsin-become-the-most-politically-divisive-place-in-america.html?_r=1
The real action is going to be in the Senate recalls — which if successful will deprive Walker of his 100%-GOP-controlled state legislature:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisconsin_Senate_recall_elections,_2012
They don’t have the money, Bobster. They simply don’t have the money.
You need money to be on TV, on the radio, in the newspapers. Especially in this post-Citizens-United era, because the forces of evil have literally twenty to thirty times as much money to spend:
It reminds me a lot of what happened with Scott Brown and Martha Coakely in MA. Field a lackluster (in Coakley’s case, somewhat repugnant) candidate and put in a weak fight at the last minute.
(in reply to OFG #13)
A surplus of caution is nowhere to be found in progressive DNA.
Yes, and the Dems are likely to get 2 of those Senate recalls, so that is some good news. Walker’s victory is still going to have the Koch-suckers shouting from the rooftops (as another poster mentioned) and Walker can still do damage even without control of the legislature.
What you say about Dean’s 50 state strategy and the newDem response to it is true, but you are going to be raked over the coals here because that 50 state strategy is what brought and kept so many Blue Dogs in the Dem party for so long. What a lot of people on this list don’t seem to understand is that the Cons strategy is to use the law to kill the Progressive movement. They’ve already packed the lower courts with Heritage Foundation judges and now their sights are set on the Supreme Court so that they can control the country’s direction for generations. In order to do that their goal has been obvious from the outset, with the stage set 30 years ago when they turned their attention to city, county and then state and federal elections. Gain the power, appoint the judges and then control and dominate by making dissent impotent and nearly impossible. They’ve been very successful and I think they are on the verge of having total control.
I don’t think you should blame Democrats, or a poor candidate.
If you follow the link and read the poll, blame the voters of WI.
The Reason-Rupe poll finds voters overwhelmingly support many of the key changes Gov. Walker and the legislature implemented on public sector pensions and health care last year. Reason-Rupe finds 72 percent favor the change requiring public sector workers to increase their pension contributions from less than 1 percent to 6 percent of their salaries. And 71 percent favor making government employees pay 12 percent of their own health care premiums instead of the previous 6 percent.
The public supports asking government workers to pick up more of the tab for their own retirement benefits, as 65 percent say public sector workers receive better pension and health care benefits than private sector workers.
When asked what state and local officials should do if pensions and health benefits are underfunded, 74 percent favor requiring government employees to pay more for their own health care and retirement benefits.
With all that said, the polls could still be incorrect and Walker could still lose. I suppose it will come down to who actually votes come election day.
Government unions is something Obama does not like, but will not say so until after the election. He carefully avoided both WI and that issue. Government workers are the only sector to have maintained their salaries and pensions while the private sector (airlines for example) had their pensions thrown into the company pot to pay the CEO’s their millions. Walker fat cats have spent 25 to 1 in WI. Like the election in November, this one depends on the vote. Teachers are being attacked in WI. One school district published teacher names and salaries. Charter profit schools will replace public education. Forget becoming a teacher in the future or a government employee if you want a living wage and perks.
You have to wonder why the DNC decided that this fight wasn’t worth fighting. Maybe they would rather have a whipped and demoralized populace, too.
And that, too, is part of the Con strategy. They wrecked the pension and health care plans of private sector workers and that left the public sector workers as the only ones that still had good plans. Now they are going after them and saying, “Look how much better they have it than you”, to the citizens. Never mind that a few years ago the private sector workers made higher wages than their counterparts in the public sector and had the same, and sometimes superior, benefits to what public workers had. The Cons have pitted one segment of the population against another, the strategy has been successful, and we all are sliding backwards down the economic scale. Except for the richest, that is, who have actually increased their wealth during this time.
Why in the world would or should they vote for a DINO? Doing so is exactly how we got to where we are today……complaining there is little difference between the 2 parties.
Our Russ wasn’t chosen because he refused to run in the primary. He still has national aspirations and understands that a loss would end any future in politics.
For those who think Feingold would have made a difference remember he lost to an unknown for the Senate less than two years ago.
If you’d like a more in-depth analysis of the upcoming Walker recall fiasco, Alan Maki had a great post here yesterday or the day before. I’m sure you can find it.
There will be no one to blame for this if Walker wins but the people of Wisconsin. The Koch Bros are showering the State with money while Walker has made it very clear that his interest is not the working class of that State. The choice is clear over there. If Walker wins then it will be a mandate for big money . Wisconsin voters will lead the charge in telling the world that the American voter will vote against their own interests in favor of candidates with lots of money and this will be the deciding factor in choosing political representatives in the future.
Not one WI Senate seat will flip. The only close contest is Van Wanggaard’s seat in Racine and he will win against John Lehman who he beat 2 years ago.
Do any of you guys actually live in Wisconsin and understand what is going on there?
Thanks for the correction. It’s worse than I thought and as bad as I feared. I think you are basically right about where we are heading, but it’s a big country and there is always a new generation coming up. It looked pretty grim under Brezhnev, too. The key thing is to keep them from burning the books.
Not to worry. Obama will be there soon to save the day and show his solidarity with the working class. He just needs to locate his work boots.
Feingold has shown his true colors. His organization Progressives United, or PU, is backing the Charlatan-in-Chief Obama.
Doesn’t Wasserman-Schultz head the DNC? That would be the same Wasserman-Schultz that just took a large corporate contribution to back the creation of a large private detention complex in Miramar, FL despite her constituency’s objections. Does that answer your question?
Spending wasn’t really 25:1.
More like 25:25 if you take union funds into account.
Good news….
Walker is down by three points
In UNION households
Turnout
Like OMG.
Every teacher’s salary in the state of Wisconsin is online: http://dpi.wi.gov/lbstat/newasr.html
Where is the DNC. This is just like 2010. They abandoned the States. That is why we have Walker in the first place. That is why we Kasich in Ohio. It is why we have the largest medicare fraud charge Scott in Florida. They are not wanting to spend money on State issues. I am sure they will show up after the election for a fund raiser. I believe Debbie Wasserman Schultz tweeted that.
Ok tell us !!!
I am glad to hear that the unions have been pumping money into WI. They need to do that. The 25-1 I’ve been hearing was on the Ed Show. He has been pounding the DNC for money. I think it will be close and depend on the vote.
Do you mean that the name of the teacher and their salary is on-line? Wow. I wouldn’t like that if I were a teacher.
A Walker win is the fault of those multidimensional chess players congregating @ 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
alan – you’ve got to stop getting your phony math from Fox.
Walker’s big spenders are dwarfing anything in the Dems camp.
http://www.prwatch.org/news/2012/05/11526/wisconsin-newspapers-create-false-equivalency-recall-spending
Geeze
Hardly surprising when one considers the intelligence of the “average” voter, awash in propaganda and indoctrination and with a face full of Cheetos.
For those of you that had hopes that the dims would actually accomplish something in the voting, I think that this will be a big disappointment. My own view is that this can be chalked up to the uniparty system. 0 has no intention of rocking the boat by trying to actually win something beyond his own re-election. You can see that the dims have no interest in fighting a good fight because they are as corrupted as the repugs. It probably doesn’t matter who wins in WI because the outcome for the people will be about the same, just as it will for the pres election.
Sounds like we are just SOL on Wallker.
Please, people, simmer down now. Everyone in President Obama and Debbie W-S’s DNC, and every other blue dog and Republican, will testify that they’re doing a SUPER job for America. But that’s no reason to think the Dems will inevitably cruise to an easy victory in this year’s elections as they always do — so donate harder! Or else — the lesser evil will be forced to get less lesser.
I believe that the Democratic Party likes Blue Dogs more than they like progressives like Kucinich and Feingold. I believe the Democrats conspired with Republicans to redistrict Kucinich out. I know a couple of people who have worked on campaigns and the Party did not help them at all. I believe the candidates were too progressive. I believe the Dems love the big money pouring in to the Party and I do not believe they will ever run on real issues and forgo the big bucks. The real debates run by the League of Women Voters years ago were abolished in favor of a no issues debate run by the parties themselves. The Obama and Clinton administration stooges are now a permanent fixture in the Democratic Party.
Enthusiasm and boots on the ground could change the result.
There is hope. Remember, it’s not who votes, it’s who counts the votes.
Per your link:
As I said, the Union’s backing of Barrett is not included in his fundraising.
fearmongering: “we’ll become the less lesser”
Good one
Given all this, I don’t understand why anyone trusts Dems any more than Pubs