Florida and Ohio are again living up to their reputations of being the big presidential swing states. Two new polls show that in both states President Obama and Mitt Romney are currently tied.
A new poll from Suffolk University found that Obama holds only a single point lead in Florida
Suffolk University (5/6-5/8)
Obama 46%
Romney 45%
Other 2%
Undecided 7%
Refused 1%
While the race in Florida is extremely close the good news for the Obama team is that support appears to be moving in his direction. The previous Suffolk poll of Florida from January found Romney leading 47 to Obama 42.
Similarly, in Ohio Obama also has only a single point lead according to a new Qunnipiac poll.
Qunnipiac University 5/2-5/7
Obama 45%
Romney 44%
Someone else 2%
Wouldn’t vote 3%
DK/NA 7%
The state of the race in Ohio remained basically unchanged for most of the year in their polling. Obama always leads but mostly by the slimmest of margins.
The poll tested some possible VP picks and found that if Mitt Romney selected Ohio Senator Rob Portman as his running mate it would have almost no impact. With Portman on the ticket Romney gains only a single point making the race tied 45 to 45.



48 Comments
Portman is the WORST sort of GOP tool. His lips are surgically attached to anyone who can advance his career.
You folks think Boehner is bad, wait till you get a load of Portman.
Boxturtle (I think Obama would lose Ohio if the election were today)
As Cubans lose hope Rubio will be VP that should depress Mitt’s hopes there Florida is a must win state for the GOP sure they can win without it maybe but it would be very hard.
Its must win for Jeb Bush Jeb will have a harder time making the case to run in 4 years if Obama wins Florida and Jeb is a Power That Be if there ever was one.
He is bad but he is from a big State Mitt has to win does he have anything special to make Mitt want him as VP?
Might as well start preparing for a recount in Florida.
Come back with a poll six days before the election. Six months out doesn’t mean anything, other than to give the MSM 24 hour news cycle something to talk about. Obama’s team have already built up a great ground game in the so-called battleground states. The media would rather reflect on the horse race nature of polls. It’s part and parcel of their lazy stenographic nature in not having to do real digging. All the while the Obama people are doing the day to day grunt work building up to a massive get out the vote effort.
Ironically its the government regulation that Obama swears he hates that saves him in Ohio high fuel gas prices are making people buy small fuel efficient cars. Obama raised the MPG average for cars before gas prices went up.
People tired of paying $ 40 or more to fill their gas tanks are buying new cars and thanks to Obama they can buy American cars.
Tweedledum tied with Tweedledee.
I think Rubio is still #1 on the short list.
Give Mitt a little more time to BE Mitt and Obama more time to tell everybody all the good things he gonna do this time around and Ohio will prolly go blue.
The polls are good news for Obama yes they can change a bunch in 6 months but outside a huge scandal or much more likely more bad economic numbers well I don’t expect Mitt to be able to sell tax cuts for the rich or more military spending to voters.
I don’t expect Mitt’s Job plan to tax the rich less and they will create jobs to sell. Hispanics outside Florida won’t vote for Mitt.
Women well the war on Women might die down but It will still effect Mitt. Does anyone think Mitt can beat Obama in a debate and sell voters on his ideas?
As far as Obama’s game plan goes I thought he abandoned Dean’s 50 state strategy and was only targeting close states?
I thought Obama was micro targeting instead of using broad messages? Say what you want about Hilary as President but she did lose using Micro targeting.
Obama won with a 50 state strategy why change what worked?
We are down to the last six months of the two year race to INdecision 2012. The future of the corporate world and the elimination of the middle class and freedom of choice. Gotta give it some airplay. The Edwards trial and the Clements are real snoozers.
I know and I admit Florida is a must win for Mitt Rubio can give him that. Rubio can shield Mitt from some Hispanic anger he is still in the running but Rubio would cost Mitt the racist vote.
Even Sheriff Joe would have problems getting skinheads in AZ to vote for Mitt if Rubio were on the ticket. But I do admit Rubio is on the list.
What is the point — the value — of closely monitoring and “reporting” on these polls?
Obama won with a 50 state strategy why change what worked?
He did have a prety effective campaigh last time. But McCain was dragging around Bush AND Palin, two pretty big albatrosses around even a war heroe’s neck. Still, the “We Suck Less” slogan, although effective, could be problematical.
Let’s not forget that Romney’s “unfavorable” rating is still pretty high and ,as you said, “tax breaks for the rich and increased military spending” don’t resonate well with the 99%. And, after all, they make up almost 99% of the voters.
Additionally, let’s remember several other GOP “stars” don’t seem to be interested.
I find it inteeresting. Look at all the people it employs.
Absolute obedience to GOP orthodoxy and a rolodex that would probably impress Rove.
Boxturtle (And a certain amount of mindless butt kissing)
American Car sales will be a bigger factor than anything they both do. Unless Obama announces a plan to pay every police Dept cash to buy Chevy Volts to save them money in the long run an idea I have pushed cops drive allot the fuel savings would help state and local budgets and provide more jobs for auto workers.
As far as Mitt goes what else can he say after he tried to claim the auto bailout was his idea after he was against it? What else could Mitt possibly say to top that?
Obama needs to make that Mitt flip flop a tv ad. If Mitt can top that statement with something even more stupid to union Autoworkers I will owe you dinner.
I admit its possible but if Mitt says something worse then we have to start asking seriously the question is Mitt just to dumb to be President.
I thought Rubio was on that list?
He’s sure on the short list. But McConnell from WV is on the list as well.
If Rubio will serve, and that’s a big if, he’ll be in a most ncomfortable position. Many spanish speaking Americans will look at him as a sellout.
Boxturtle (Wonder if Mitt would consider Sarah? *snicker*)
Don’t bet on it, but don’t bet against it. This election in Ohio is still anyone’s to lose and rational sounding wingnuttery sells here.
Boxturtle (I think today, Mitt would win. $1M or so in TV ads, and Obama will win)
Rove’s blessing and Ohio is a must win might be enough also I don’t think big CEO ego types like being upstaged I don’t think Mitt wants a Sarah Palin type to get crowds moving for her and leave Mitt with polite applause didn’t the Who once refuse to go on after Jimi Hendricks?
I still think Mitt needs a Sarah Palin to excite crowds with hate to get his base motivated because Mitt is boring but will Mitt’s ego allow him to be the Who?
by the way I love the Who and Jimi.
Aside from nuzzling up to the 1% and continuing to expand the war machine (onwards to Iran), Willard has one major handicap – himself. He was a bully, a prick and a coward when he was 17 and he’s still one today.
Even the low info voter, when they wake up from their “all politicians are crooked” slumber after Labor Day will realize that Willard, on top of everything else he is, is also a phony.
It is going to be tight all the way. As Carville said, anyone who thinks it’s in the bag is mistaken.
I could have missed a memo.
You know how much I value your opinion. Thanks.
I’m sure he can change his mind Mitt has already changed his several times.
Add to that a liar, a panderer, two-faced dog-abuser who has a Swiss bank account, likes to fire people, rape and pillage American companies for his own gain, and has an elevator for his many cars.
You gotta admit, Romney and Rubio would make the most hanbdsome candidates since…..oh….. Carter and Mondale?
Ha! Everything you say is true, but I try to be pithy. Every other thing you said about Willard falls under the category of “prick.”
So, the Billions of dollars to be spent on the 2012 election are all to convince 2% of mindless swing voters in Ohio & Florida.
Unless there is another Republican election fraud effort currently operating in Ohio and/or Florida to eek a win for Romney, then the elite are happy with Obama and he will be re-elected.
It might be better if Romney won – with a Republican House and Senate – they could implement all the old conservative ideas (the same ones that led to the Hoover 1929 & Bush 2008 financial collapses). This would lead to the Romney financial crisis.
Except this time the bailout would not put the people in debt to save the wealth of the elite. This bailout would use the wealth of the richest country in the history of humanity to save jobs, provide education and healthcare, build infrastructure, and save retirements of the people.
Only 3% of liberals in Ohio & Florida could change their vote, resulting in a 6% voter swing from Obama to Romney. Obama would be history. These few liberals may be the last hope America has.
I like the concept, but I’ll bet the police would scream about performance, whether or not it was relevant.
But I’ve often thought about nat gas or electric cars for the rest of a municipalities’ fleet; why do the housing inspectors in the cities where I live & where I work tool around all day by themselves in a Crown Victoria?
What are they getting, 16 mpg at best?
Other than that, how do you feel about him?
The polling for the popular vote will be tight all the way, but the electoral college is lopsided now, and failing a major gaffe by Obama, will remain so.
And let me make clear, this is more do to with Willard being a terrible candidate than anything Obama is doing.
Box Turtle- Do you believe Romney would take Ohio because they just found out yesterday that Romney saved the car industry?
Two corrupt politicians have been sponsosred by the corrupt politicial partys to run for the presidency…
And the two lying frauds are tied in the polls…
Willard is 65 years old, how come he doesn’t have a gray hair on his head.
To complement his lies and enhance his phony creds he washes away the gray everyday.
I can be redundant sometimes.
I hear he is an excellent horseback rider.
Sounds kinda deprressing when you put it THAT way.
Paxil anyone????
There is a glaring flaw in your logic. Marco “Short Bus” Rubio’s appeal is limited to the Batista Cubans and his pick would alienate the remainder of the Hispanic vote. He represents a segment that is dying off and his affiliation with Jeb “Mammon” Bush is detrimental.
If I may. Rubio will, no doubt, cause some problems for Romney. But, just as with Palin last time for the GOP, THEY will make choices on his ADvantages. THEY think Rubio will attract Hispanic voters just like THEY though Palin would attract female voters to McCain. Some of THEIR logic will be flawed. But, I, and may smarter than me, feel Rubio will be the choice unless he turns it down. Several others on the short list have already expressed no interest in the VEEP job. It will become even less enviable if Romney appears to be unable to win.
Makes you wonder how these myopic advisers actually secure employment. Their political “calculations” are glaringly inept. Our country is in the hands of venal idiots.
RomBama…
The American people LOOSE… either way.
You can take all the medication you want…
It wont help.
It’s funny what you say about the “mindless swing voters” in Ohio. I’m much more concerned about the “Progressives” who sat out 2010 — 59% or so — and let Kasich waltz right in. I say this as someone who worked a phone bank for Governor Strickland for six weeks before the 2010 election, and found that even among intelligent “Progressives” (they MUST be intelligent because they’re not swing voters or Republicans, right?) there was a lack of interest in trying to stop the Tea Party wave that was crashing in. Well, now we’re awash in Tea Party nonsense.
And still people like you are making noises about “it might be better if Romney won”.
Isn’t Ohio Conservative Catholicism Central in the US? Makes it astonishing that Obama’s doing as well as he is there.
I keep thinking of how lucky we were in 1932. We could have gone the way of Germany, but we didn’t.