Obama’s Swing State Lead Drops to Near Tie

Now that Mitt Romney has basically secured his party’s nomination, the race for the presidency has gotten a lot tighter. Last month President Obama had a nine point lead in the 12 swing states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin) according to Gallup, but this month Obama and Romney are effectively tied. From Gallup:

Trend: Presidential Vote Preferences in 2012 Swing States

The one piece of good new for Obama is the voter enthusiasm numbers. Obama supporters are more enthusiastic than Romney’s supporters, and enthusiasm for Obama appears to be growing while is it falling for Romney. From Gallup:

Obama’s swing-state prospects also look a bit brighter than Romney’s on the basis of voter enthusiasm. More than half of Obama’s supporters, 55%, are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting in this year’s presidential election, up from 49% saying this in March. By contrast, 46% of Romney’s supporters are extremely or very enthusiastic, unchanged from 47% in March. Today’s figures reflect a reversal from January, when 55% of Romney voters were extremely or very enthusiastic, compared with 50% of Obama voters.

Better enthusiasm won’t make up for a large polling deficit, but having your base turn out in higher percentages can make the difference in a close election.

Comments are closed.