In the past month Mitt Romney has significantly gained on President Obama in several key swing states, according to Quinnipiac polling. Currently Obama has the lead in Pennsylvania but is effectively tied with Romney in both Florida and Ohio. From Quinnipiac:
Florida: Romney with 44 percent to Obama’s 43 percent, too close to call;
Ohio: Obama with 44 percent to Romney’s 42 percent, too close to call;
Pennsylvania: Obama tops Romney 47 – 39 percent.
This compares to the results of a March 28 Swing State Poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing President Obama ahead of Gov. Romney 49 – 42 percent in Florida, 47 – 41 percent in Ohio and 45 – 42 percent in Pennsylvania.
Not surprisingly, part of the reason Romney is doing well in Florida and Ohio is that he is winning on the issue of the economy, which dominates this election. In Florida, 49% think Romney would do a better job with the economy while only 40% think Obama would better. Similarly, in Ohio it is Romney 47% to Obama 43%. In Pennsylvania, Obama barely leads on this question – 44% to 43% for Romney.
The only real piece of good news for Obama is that his lead has increased in Pennsylvania although I personally don’t think that is very important. The idea that Pennsylvania might be a swing state tends be recycled every election, but I found it hard to believe the state could be decisive. It is possible that Romney in a big wave election could carry Pennsylvania, but I suspect several other states would put Romney over the necessary 270 electoral college votes first.