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In the past month Mitt Romney has significantly gained on President Obama in several key swing states, according to Quinnipiac polling. Currently Obama has the lead in Pennsylvania but is effectively tied with Romney in both Florida and Ohio. From Quinnipiac:
Florida: Romney with 44 percent to Obama’s 43 percent, too close to call;
Ohio: Obama with 44 percent to Romney’s 42 percent, too close to call;
Pennsylvania: Obama tops Romney 47 – 39 percent.[...]
This compares to the results of a March 28 Swing State Poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing President Obama ahead of Gov. Romney 49 – 42 percent in Florida, 47 – 41 percent in Ohio and 45 – 42 percent in Pennsylvania.
Not surprisingly, part of the reason Romney is doing well in Florida and Ohio is that he is winning on the issue of the economy, which dominates this election. In Florida, 49% think Romney would do a better job with the economy while only 40% think Obama would better. Similarly, in Ohio it is Romney 47% to Obama 43%. In Pennsylvania, Obama barely leads on this question – 44% to 43% for Romney.
The only real piece of good news for Obama is that his lead has increased in Pennsylvania although I personally don’t think that is very important. The idea that Pennsylvania might be a swing state tends be recycled every election, but I found it hard to believe the state could be decisive. It is possible that Romney in a big wave election could carry Pennsylvania, but I suspect several other states would put Romney over the necessary 270 electoral college votes first.
55 Comments
Wait how is Romney closing the gap on the strength of the economy question. He hasnt put forth any idea for getting the economy on track besides lowering taxes for millionaires and firing all the gay people!! WTF!
I’m not sure he can take MN again. McCain did not lose by that many and we have a great deal of anti-war people in MN who don’t buy Obama’s lies.
The evil of two lessers. If there were a ballot choice None of the Above, I suspect it would win.
I’d vote for “NOTA”. Ooooh. The NOTA Party. That could be a cool name for my new “third party” movement.
Do you like it better than “anti-republicrats”????
“Not surprisingly, part of the reason Romney is doing well in Florida and Ohio is that he is winning on the issue of the economy, which dominates this election…The idea that Pennsylvania might be a swing state tends be recycled every election, but I found it hard to believe the state could be decisive.”
Of course he is, they are 2 of the proverbial “swing” states. How many elections cycles must pass before this gibberish is finally seen for what it actually is, gibberish. This is just more of the illusion of a democracy. The majority of political reporters have a template of stories they run every election cycle. The “hotly contested battleground/swing state story”, “the how much richer than the other guy is running story”, the candidate did a flub,flip-flop or generally said something they shouldn’t have said story” and “the how much more money/support one candidate is getting over the other story.”
These are nothing more than distractions from the truth of the duopoly that is the fascist government of the U.S.
I saw Rocky Anderson speak out here in LA a few weeks ago. President Obama isn’t the lesser of two evils, he said; he’s the more effective of two evils. I thought that was a shrewd and insightful thing to say.
I do like it. I think it’s NOTA bad idea.
For Obama this is awful news. He hasn’t made any big gaffes or mis-steps, the economy is still “improving” (if you listen to the media and don’t buy food or gas or pay for medical care, etc…)
Meanwhile, Romney hasn’t done ANYTHING to erase the stigma of being the last asshole left in the clown car, and
here he is, still gaining on Obama in two of the bellweather states, without which Obama probably can’t get re-elected.
Is it going to get better for him?
How?
I’m calling Ohio for Romney. Governor Kasich’s massive voter supression efforts will bear fruit. Factor in the lack of motivation amongst leftie voters and Romney will takle it handily. Probably won’t even need a recount.
“The evil of two lessers…”
:o) :o) :o)
When a difference that makes no difference is the only choice available, statistically it will break down to 50/50.
It is way too early to look at poll numbers. The TV Ads have not even come out yet. People don’t pay attention to politics until the latter part of August . Also consider this. Who are these pollsters talking to ? Land line phone owners and who are they??? My kids don’t own Landlines . I can barely get ahold of them so I know a pollster will not reach them and they are voting and it ain’t going to be for Romney (not that they are thrilled by Obama). I think these pollsters get the same results over and over because they are talking to the same people with Land Lines.
I’m thinking about having a few bumper sticker made up: OBAMA ROMNEY across the top and None of the Above beneath. White background, red Romney, blue Obama, alternate red and blue None of the Above. Or maybe green? What do you think? How much are bumper stickers and where’s the best place to buy them?
http://blackagendareport.com/content/why-barack-obama-more-effective-evil
this is where Rocky got this from. great article
Very clever. I like that!
Look, Romney is making it very clear that he is running to take care of the “haves”. Who the hell knows who Obamas interest are. We have not figured it out in the 4 years he has held the Presidency. But I do know this….this election is very clear in that if the people in this country like what Romney stands for then they deserve what they are going to get.
It’s an oldie and I don’t remember which cartoonist did it. I should rummage around the net and see what I can find. My all time favorite was LBJ as a WWI fighter pilot, goggles, leather helmet, fur collared fighter pilot jacket, and scarf, leaning out of the cockpit and looking down, “T’is better to have bombed and lost than never to have bombed at all.” Hilarious. And devastating.
Point taken, and made by a number of commentators.
‘NOTA’ bad idea.
Excellent!
Interesting.
“We have not figured it out…”
then, I would say, you haven’t been paying attention.
“NOTA” — isn’t that the anglicized pronunciation of the Spanish “nada” — nothing?
Black Romney/ White Obama, the choice is ours to make.
Love your idea.
I have all our printing done by the Chinese. They’re pretty good a way cheap. Couple cents a piece.
I’ll bet thoise early American settlers who dressed up like Indians and threw the tea into the damn harbor started out just like this.
Dear Metro:
which “new” preznint, Obama or Romney, do you think will be most likely to–post election–pull the trigger on Iran?
And why?
Have at it. :o)
NOTA Party it is!!!! With maybe “anti-republiucrats” in small print.
No….long “O”, hard “T”.
Can I answer too?????
I think Bush
I didn’t realize that. Maybe Rocky should have acknowledged his source, if that’s where he got it from.
Obama is such a better campaigner than Romney, it’s hard to see how Mitt can lay a hand on him. Obama is going after the soft suburban Republican vote, and to do that he is going to force Romney back into his fundie base, whom the better sort of Thugs despise. This has been the strategy from the get-go and is the reason (apart from idealogical pref erence) that he is screwing over the Left every chance he gets. The general election is effectively a Republican primary in a one-party state.
Keep in mind that Romney needs Florida AND Ohio AND Pennsylvania AND Virginia AND North Carolina. That’s a pretty tall order.
Romney will have to talk, and respond to reporters, he can’t just hide for six months. Every time he opens his mouth he loses votes.
Re: metro222
ME! I’ve been polled by PPP twice since the first of the year and I don’t usually answer the phone.
Interesting angle.
I’m at crlbchr@aim.com. Let’s discuss.
“Elections are held to delude the populace into believing that they are participating in government.”-Gerald F. Lieberman
“Do you ever get the feeling that the only reason we have elections is to find out if the polls were right?”-Robert Orben
Right.
Obama has spent three years now ignoring the unemployed. Oh I know, he has had sound bites and makes nice speeches. But, forget the official unemployment rate of 8.2%. There are over twenty million out there who want a job.
I can accept the ACA ,but this guy has been making bi partisan plans to cut spending in the middle of a recession. I think of unemployment as a fucking cancer. And this guy doesn’t give a shit. He wants nice plans to cut the safety net.
Good luck with that asshole.
Ahh yes, but you know wars is us. No matter who gets in. This is big business. the only things we do these days is let’s see, bail out banks, pay the health care industry and oh yeah, the MIC.
Can we get a few more hundred thousand words on all the polls you chose to ignore in this post? Or do we get a separate post for each poll? Personally, I’d prefer that all this horse-race horseshit be concentrated in one post so I don’t have to make my dumb “needs more horse-race bell” joke for every one.
I just basically wanted people to see that article. I don’t have a problem with Rocky saying it. It is so true.
Knut, I agree with most of what you said, but this time around, I don’t think campaign slick is going to get it.
The contest is going to be about Obama and the dems and what they’ve done for Joe and Jane six-pack, and that’s been piss-little and I think most of the voters feel that way. It boils down to Obama hanging on to the swing states, and I doubt he can do that.
Bottom line: even if he does, the repubs will surely keep the House and have a decent chance to take the Senate. Even with just the House, Obama will be hamstrung, just like he’s been hamstrung all along. Of course, he seems to have no serious objection to being hamstrung, in fact, he appears to like it just fine.
You got it, blue.
It’s called “protecting the status quo.”…clearly, it was Obama,s priority when he took office.
In my lifetime I wish I had been so sure of things as you are.
If the Republicans win a Congressional majority and Obama wins the presidency, he may finally feel safe openly declaring his conventions. He will, at the least, be delighted to throw himself into the (metaphorical) arms of the Republican legislative agenda.
I really don’t know the answer to that. I hope neither one.
I have been politically active for 32 years and have been polled twice. I work at an airport and talk to people all day long and the what I am picking up on is no one wants to vote . But I will tell you this and I am surprised by the response. The kind of people you would expect to vote for Romney cannot stand him. Disappointed with Obama but really hate Romney and his money. Maybe his people will stay home too. Oh and I have had the same Land Line for the last 32 years.
Your last sentence is just as true if you substitute “Obama” for “Romney”. I’ll likely vote for neither.
If your response to this were: we’re f’ed either way, we’d have some common ground. But I doubt that.
If you think they don’t want to vote now, wait until they suffer through $2 billion in attack ads over the next six months.
One interesting data point from Montana polling yesterday, when they add Libertarian to the question (IIRC the Libertarians are on the ballot in all states this time) it went from Romney +5 to Romney +2. Rather than staying home I suspect that a lot of Republicans, particularly evangelicals who make political decisions based on a candidate’s faith, may vote Libertarian and straight Republican for the rest of the ticket.
In order to get a good answer, you have to ask the right question, and O vs. R may not be the right question this cycle.
As to being polled, that’s just what I’ve gotten so far this year. I must have been polled a half-dozen times in 2008, and I got at least one last fall. Land line, rural area, they keep pretending Colorado is a swing state, and I’m a registered Green which translates to pollsters as “swing voter”.
I also don’t know which of them would be more likely to risk a mid-east war…which, if you think about it, is a much worse indictment of Obama than of Romney, and that confounding of the two of them is going to work more against Obama than against Romney.
As for being sure of myself, I think the people who, at this point, are unsure of Obama and his…purposes…are the ones who are emotionally incapable of looking at reality. They share that, to a sad degree, with the bush supporters.
I have to just make this point to you 4cdave. I was hired by our Legislature in 1986 to help win the majority back from the Republicans. I was assigned to a candidate that the political powers that be were so sure would be the one candidate that would take us over the top back into the majority because the very experienced pollsters that they hired told us it would be a dead even race between the two parties. On election night we won so big we were stunned. We even brought in our sacrifice candidates that we ran in districts we never thought we could even have a meeting in let alone win the district. I have never forgot that stunning result so I am really careful when it comes to polls. You never know what these voters are going to say or do. Just want to tell you this.
Ok point taken…but I can assure you that I am emotionally very capable. I just am willing myself to look at life a little more positively these days because I feel I don’t have a choice.
PLease see #4.
NOTA Party. We’re recuiting……:-)
Two crooks running for president…
And they are tied in the polls…
The time has come to end the corrupt two party scam… the two party system has FAILED.
WRONG…
We know EXACTLY who Obama represents… that would be the exact same people Romney represents.
I’m with the Hispanic group that declared themselves off the Obama train. They said they had survived eight years of Bush, they could survive four years of whomever.
Hmmmm…I’m interested. Tell me more!
I understand your desire to be positive. I would prefer that, myself, but watching Obama come into office with one hell of a mandate for real change, and then seeing him lay down for the republicans like a cur dog, makes it hard for me to be that way.