Several months ago many of the economic indicators were showing improvement, albeit very small and insufficient to make up for the depth of our current crisis. The important thing politically was it at least looked like things were moving in the right direction, which is critical for an incumbent President heading into an election. In the past month, though, there are signs that any growth we were experiencing has potentially stalled.
The newest weekly initial unemployment claims was 388,000. The four week average for initial claims has increased for three weeks straight and is now the highest it has been this year. Initial claims had been pretty much trending downward steadily for almost a year but it looks as if that trend may have stopped. In addition, Gallup had found economic confidence had been trending steadily upward since October, but in the past month it has remained basically flat.
Although a few data points do not make a trend, there are some potential worrying signs. Recent statements by the Federal Reserve make it clear they are not going to take action at this time to try to boast unemployment. In addition, with Europe slipping back into recession because of their misguided obsession with austerity, the United States can’t expect them to provide any much needed boost to our own economy.
While the news has been recently flooded with a huge number of horse race polls, seven months out from the election I would recommend paying more attention to the job numbers than the poll numbers. Overwhelmingly, the top issue for Americans is jobs/economy and the voters will judge Obama on how he seems to have handled that issue.



47 Comments
Thanks for the post Jon.
So everyone will cast a ‘not at all’ judgement? Step back and take a look at the past 3 years and 3 months. Barack Obama hasn’t done a single thing to actually increase employment in the United States.
If I’m wrong someone please show me where.
Hi Jon,
I suggest you check this article out. From the mouth of one of few real journalist back in the 30′s and applies pretty much to today. be great if you could look at it and post a story about it.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-hl-mencken-was-right
In In particular before you feel the need to do another O vs R, or the Poll say consider this
H.L. Mencken understood the false promises of democracy 80 years ago:
“Democracy is also a form of worship. It is the worship of Jackals by Jackasses. It is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”
Then ask yourself would you and us here at FDL be better served discussing the questions Mencken raised and others have raised or should we just keep reading posts churning out the same topics over and over again and therefore taking us nowhere but the same old places.
I am not saying don’t cover these topics but they could be a few lines in the context of a much bigger picture a picture which needs the light shone on it brightly and make all of us having to ask some important questions.
thanks
Can I get back to you on that????
Couldn’t agree more!!! It seems the Jackasses are getting just what they deserve for trusting the Jackals.
n informed, interested, questioning public would be a danger to the government as described by H.L. Mencken:
“The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out … without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, intolerable.”
So, we have a choice between an incumbent President whose administration has done the bare minimum to re-start the economy, and a presumptive GOP nominee who has committed himself to policies that would crash the economy again, perhaps all the way into a new Great Depression.
I’m voting for Rocky Anderson.
It actually looks like Europe may be changing its mind about austerity. There is talk about raising the deficit limit above 3%. That could stimulate their economies.it would be weird if Europe relaxes austerity just as obummer adopts it.
as Mencken noted during his time:
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”
The purpose of those who wield power is to keep the masses dumbed down and paranoid regarding terrorist threats and artificial enemies. By convincing the dense public that acquiring material goods on credit was a smart thing to do, they have trapped them in a web of debt. By making life an inexhaustible bureaucratic nightmare or rules, regulations, forms, ID cards, registrations, and red tape, those in power maintain control and accumulate power. H.L. Mencken would be proud:
“Democracy is a pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance. No one in this world has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.”
“An informed, interested, questioning public would be a danger to the government..”
——-
Lucky for our current government in DC that’s not a threat. /s
In keeping with that the gummerment announced today that a terrorist attack is possible on the 1st anniversary of Osama’s death.
When you put it THAT way it sounds depressing. :-)
I hope that doesn’t interfere with MY party. I already bought a bunch of tiki torches.
Don’t you like how all U.S. politicians pander to the masses, claiming their inherent “intelligence” and “decency” and the “reverence” they have for the “Founding Fathers?” If the Founding Fathers were so brilliant they would have instituted a parliamentary system, a system more responsive in a timely fashion to the people.
Tiki torches may one day be classified as a weapon of mass destruction.
WOW! I’m not well read on the subject of Mencken, but it appears to me that the currrent bunch in Washington read his book and is following his “advice” to the letter.
I’ll be careful.
Neither Obama or Romney care about jobs, at least creating them here anyway. The only JOB they care about being ( Romney ) or staying( Obama)is Pres. The ONLY reason I can see to vote for Obama is the SCOTUS. Even that is only a marginal reason, since any nominee he puts up will still be a rock solid Corporatist.
Never happen in the U.S.. The media and the politicians will not allow for an alternative story line.
Humph, pretty smart fella.
Unemployment numbers are not job numbers, and while employment is slowly increasing, the increases are not keeping up with the population increase. Also the quality of the employment is important.
If O is reelected and has the opportunity of filling a vacancy on the SC he’ll likely select, in the spirit of bipartisanship, a conservative.
Agreed!
You mean there is a qualitative difference in flipping a burgher and teaching in a school? According to the politicians a job is a job.
See Elena Kagan…
I demand an answer now.
Now don’t say that. I need to hold on to something here.
Not that I endorse him but didn’t a fellow recently say, it’s the economy and we’re not that stupid!
Obama is hoping his singing, reducing student loan interest rates (gotta keep the kids in debt regardless), and flat out lies will trick the masses again. He certainly thinks we’re that stupid.
A lot depends on whether or not Obama feels he needs to be seen as “doing something”, or if he needs to signal to his bankster owners that he’s okay with dismantling the economy.
Romney, of course, feels no such conflict.
With the number of people looking for jobs, they are bidding wages and salaries down. If you are an employer, why pay more?
Still if we ever get back to full employment, you can expect some wage inflation. Already, some are talking about inflation is heating up and we need to tighten up, aka, we are at full employment. If we are afraid of inflation, we will likely never,get to full employment unless we move to some other system of employment, like government jobs.
From the perspective of our 1% Overlords, who run both Rmoney & Dmoney, the only *brighter* “employment stats” would be HIGHER unemployment, not less…
Obummer’s not going to be even marginally “better” than Rmoney should Obama “win” (which I predict he will… not that I want him to; just think the 1% don’t feel like changing horses in mid-stream yadda yadda). Let’s face it: with a 2d term, Obama doesn’t have to do even minor bupkiss to make is *seem like* he’s “doing something” for the 99%.
That’s my story, and I’m sticking to it.
Thanks for the post, sad as it is.
Jimmy Carter Tells MSNBC He Would Be ‘Comfortable’ With A Romney Presidency
okay with Jimmy okay with me
by Noah Rothman | 11:37 am, April 25th, 2012
Former President Jimmy Carter appeared on MSNBC’s Jansing & Co. with Chris Jansing on Wednesday where he weighed in on the 2012 presidential election. Carter told Jansing that he believed President Barack Obama would win a second term in November, but he would be “comfortable” with a Mitt Romney presidency and that “Romney has shown in the past in his previous years as a moderate – a progressive – that he was fairly competent.”
The next administration, whether it is O or Rmoney, will continue the bullshit newspeak. All the numbers are skewed, bent, or outright made-up to further the propaganda war on truth. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. I contend we never ended this Redepression. I see the lower and lower middle classes struggle every day. There is 20+% unemployment and a statistically significant group of people underemployed. Lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics.
Carter is just hedging his bets. He know both are owned by Corp. America, so it doesn’t really matter all that much anyway.
The government has been redistributing the wealth to the richest since Reagan. It doesn’t bode well for the poor.
In case of terrorist attack, extinguish the tiki torches and save them for the next local pitchfork mob. Times are tough, so it’s smart to reduce, reuse and recycle.
The difference between the repubs and dems is that the repubs are open and honest that they only care about themselves. The dems on the other hand lie through their teeth that they are for the people when in fact they are even more about themselves.
Personally id prefer romney although i really think obama will get reelected. It really doesnt matter though because nothing is going to change in this country for a long long time.
that is how i feel,black mittens,white mittens
“Boast” unemployment?
Is that a typo or just more economic mumbo jumbo?
Damn……this is proving to be whole lot harder than I thought.
I agree with almost everything Carter said except the last word…”competent”.
I am now of the opinion that there would likely be little difference between the two.
Ya’ know. Lots of people liked Carter. He just wasn’t a good president. BUT, he coulda done a whole lot more than build some houses for poor people IF he woulda been the FORMER president we needed during the Cheney/Bush dismantling of America, her constitution, and destruction of the middle class.
You are always insightful. I Just hope you are not prophetic. BTW, I’m saving ALL my Twinkies and toilet paper as you suggested the other day.
I thkink “boasting” is mostly waht they’ve been doing.
Obama rolled the dice that all his timid half assed measures would bear fruit in 2012 upward momentum considering how low he started at. But looks like he shot his wad too early.
He might kicking the can all the way back to Chicago in 2013
I imagine boast should be boost. Damn auto correct
It would be interesting to see a “critical” analysis of government debt from a variety of opinions and including historical perspectives. Can we as a sovereign nation with it’s own currency endlessly print money without consequence? If there are consequences, what are they, at what level of debt do they occur, and how do they impact everything else such as education, the military, healthcare, etc.
What is the actual breakdown in government spending (military, medicare, etc.) and does it best reflect the interests of the citizens? What are the revenue sources for the government? Is our tax system fair? Are the wealthiest among us and corporations receiving benefits and subsidies in the form of tax credits which unduly drive down revenues?
When, if ever, does morality enter the picture? Should the federal debt be a primary concern when millions of people are unemployed and more people are moving into poverty daily? Is our current form of government working for the citizens of this country?
Wasn’t me. Only reason I’d encourage anyone to eat a twinkie is to save their surviving family on embalming costs.