After his win in Wisconsin on Tuesday, Mitt Romney now holds a small five point lead over Rick Santorum in Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania according to Public Policy Polling.
Mitt Romney’s taken the lead in PPP’s newest poll of Rick Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania. Romney has 42% to 37% for Santorum with Ron Paul at 9% and Newt Gingrich at 6%. The numbers represent a dramatic turnaround from when PPP polled the state a month ago. Romney’s gained 17 points, going from 25% to 42%. Meanwhile Santorum’s dropped 6 points from 43% to 37%, for an overall swing of 23 points in the last four weeks.
Pennsylvania Republicans are expressing major doubts about Santorum’s viability both in the primary and the general election. Only 36% of GOP voters think Santorum has a realistic chance at the nomination to 54% who believe he does not. And when it comes to matching up against Barack Obama in the fall only 24% of Republicans think Santorum would provide their best chance for a victory while 49% think that designation belongs to Romney.
A loss in his home state would be the final nail in the coffin of the Santorum campaign, which already has basically no legitimate path to winning the nomination. More importantly, it would be a humiliating defeat for Santorum. Santorum has made Pennsylvania a must win and his firewall.
By doing surprisingly well this whole primary season, Santorum has significantly raised his profile and brand value with the conservative base. Santorum has good reason to not want to undo that by continuing a hopeless campaign seen as only damaging the Republican Party.
If more polls show Santorum losing Pennsylvania, I won’t be surprised if his campaign ended in the next few weeks, either before the Pennsylvania or soon afterwards.



18 Comments
Wow. Santorum can’t even win his home state? Bet he’s starting to wish he’d been born down in Mississippi or Alabama, where his hate and vicious vitriol would’ve been more popular.
I listen to R-money talk about the “issues,” and my head really feels like it will explode. Isn’t there a mic-takeaway from Mitt about how he “can be more flexible” after the election? Lordy. What a total mess.
I hope Rick won’t quit I hope he keeps driving Mitt even more Right right before the election so voters won’t forget
How Right Mitt is.
Also if Rick keeps running he can show enough Fundy support to Mitt and point out the obvious Mitt can’t win without high fundy turnout in GOP Fundy states and that Mitt can’t win those states without him.
If Mitt does not pick Rick as VP the Corporate Wing of the GOP gets all the blame if Mitt loses and next election the GOP will not elect a Fundy even as VP.
However if Rick is on the ticket and the GOP loses then Mitt a George Bush Corporate Wing and Rick a Fundy both share the blame and discredit both the GOP’s houses with a pox.
The pox of everyone knowing the current GOP agenda can’t win national elections in a year where no President has ever won reelection before with unemployment so high.
I expect that Trayvon Martin will be blamed for being the next Emmet Till and driving African American turnout as the GOP tries to save face.
However the GOP knew that Obama would get high African American turnout just based on his numbers when he beat McCain.
The pro Business GOP while blaming Obama for the economy was also swearing 4 years ago that the economy was going to get better in the business sections of the TV and newspapers.
If they where right about the economy getting better they should have had a message ready to counter Obama’s African American support.
perris agrees with tcu
right now what’s left for rick is the number two spot, vice president, which will help barack win I might add so that’s probably what’s going to happen
Sorry, this is completely OT (or, perhaps not, given our warmongering overlords.)
I found a beautiful anti-war song that brought tears to my eyes.
If Rick can’t win his home state then his political career is finished he will be lucky to get a fox news tv show after this. Also the Great Fundy hope of finding pols who can win running on their ideas outside of the South is over.
The Fundy message will be seen as limited to the South and toxic everywhere else. The Fundies will have to run as Compassionate Conservatives in National Elections that means Jeb Bush type candidates next election.
Outside of Jeb are there any GOPers who fit that bill after the Tea Baggers took out the *cough* GOP Moderates?
I hope Rubio has enough sense not to run as Mitt’s VP a loss by a Hispanic as VP could set back Hispanic Pols running for nationwide office just look what the last Woman to run for VP running with Mondale did for women. I don’t blame her for the loss Mondale ran the campaign but it has been decades and still no woman VP or President.
Yes I can’t think of a VP who can scare away more moderate voters than Rick can. Rubio sure would scare away GOP racist voters but I hope I can’t prove that Rick would scare away more moderate voters than Rubio would racist voters.
Until we get polling nothing is proven but I think my theory is sound.
Sadly, we forget that Rick lost his home State when he ran for re-election last time by some 18 points. It wasn’t just a loss; it was a repudiation then for all his ridiculous talk.
I bet, even if he loses PA, he won’t leave the race. He still thinks, kind of like the de-limbed knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail, that without winning a primary outside of the deep South he can force a brokered convention.
So add ‘delusional’ to his list of character traits.
While the GOP will blame Obama for using Trayvon Martin to boost African American turnout I bet they will remain silent on the GOP war on Women and Rush’s comments.
But women in general vote more than men. White Women vote more than Minority Women and White Women seem to be really pissed if Obama holds or comes within a few points of getting the Women vote especially the White Women vote despite the economy then the GOP has a huge problem.
A problem they cannot address because it would cost them the Fundy states. But a bigger problem than Hispanic and African American voters.
Light Hispanic and African American turnout gives the GOP elections in Purple States this year we are both pissed and should turnout but how much? We cannot count on the GOP being anti immigrant forever we cannot count on another Trayvon Martin to boost our voting.
But there is no scenario where the GOP wins Nationally without White Women voting GOP enough to counter the Dems lead with women. The trends for younger White Women voting more Dem were established quite well under Obama Rush and the GOP war on Women would continue that trend.
Once first time voters vote for one party it takes a lot to shift their voting pattern. Rush, Rick the GOP war on Women just may have created a Dem Century despite O having a Spine of jello.
New car sales are a problem for the GOP Rick expected Union support yes its quite strange for a GOPer but its true.
However the auto bailout kept jobs Obama boosting the MPG of American cars made sure that when gas went over %4 a gallon that America had many 30 MPG or more cars to sell.
Rick expected to tap into the Reagan Democrats the Union Blue Collar workers and people dependent on them buying stuff in their neighborhoods.
Ironically high gas prices while bad for the economy in general and great for oil companies that fund the GOP are also keeping Auto manufacturing alive and that means the Midwest likely Obama country.
If Obama had not raised the MPG of American cars we would be seeing a repeat of Carter vs Reagan. Unlike Carter the big three have cars that can compete this time against Japan not beat mind you but they are competitive and people are buying them.
The GOP plan to attack the economy depended on Union workers losing more jobs Rick aside from being a Fundy which gets all the attention here was the GOPer best poised to appeal to those voter the Reagan Democrats.
But as long as gas prices remain high Detroit can sell 30 MPG cars and keep those voters. As long as gas prices remain high GOP talk of invading Iran sure it gets NeoCon votes but it scares away tons more regular voters who worry about gas prices.
It tars GOPers who support oil company tax breaks in the next election and they won’t win anywhere but the oil producing states.
I’m not sure that Santorum dropping out is a net positive for Republicans. Lots of the R base like hearing what he says. Romney won’t say it except when forced to by Santorum. Once Santorum drops out, Romney will never court the base again. Seven months is a long time to be snubbed.
Once Santorum is out the news coverage switches from Republican infighting where most of the coverage goes to Republicans and their talking points to Obama vs. Romney. Romney will have to talk to people outside the base, and the more he talks the less they like him.
Romney has exactly no chance in the general and the establishment knows it. What they don’t want is a demoralized base that stays home and turns a competitive election into a Democratic route downticket. Romney is the worst presidential candidate since Bob Dole. Obama will make him look like a fool, not just once and a while, but nearly every day.
One detail folks forget is among the several reasons Santorum lost his Senate reelection bid in 2006 was it became general knowledge that Pennsylvania was no longer his “home state.”
He’d moved his family out of Penn Hills and over to Virginia for the duration, and defrauded Penn Hills out of tens of thousands of dollars by claiming his family lived in a house that in 2004 was reported as all but abandoned.
PA voters did not forget or forgive Santorum’s literal abandonment of his constituency. He’s not going to do well in the state.
Looks like I will have to take back everything I wrote yesterday about the value of Santorum keeping it in play. I STAND CORRECTED! Good catch re: Penna, Becca.
I’m going to disagree on Santorum’s future viability in the Republican Party. He was the most successfull of the Anyone But Romney Pretenders who flamed out starting with Perry and Cain. Santorum’s Christian Jihad might stir some of that Palin faux populist mojo but at a huge cost. pivoting away from an improving economy to the gush of anti contraception bills means that women will shun the republicans in huge numbers. Gone are the Security Moms who broke for Bush in 04 and don’t count on a repeat of 2010 when large numbers of women voted for Republicans to punish Obama
Plus Santorum comes off as a sanctimonious prick who almost seems to take some sense of Schadenfraude towards the post Greenspan Recession people who have lost their homes or livelihoods.
I think Michael Shur on the Young Turks said it best: “Every time Santorum opens his mouth I want to punch him in the face”.
that sort of Puritan Clint Eastwood shtick certainy cost him in several Midwest states. He’ll be great as another Culture Scold on Fux News but his candidacy now has ensured a severe gender gap for Romey in 12 and for the party beyond that.
Rubio not Santorum. Two Northeast jag offs on the ticket? a rich Mormon Vampire Capitalist and his stone age fundamentalist mouth breather? I don’t see it. They have to counter Obama with either a woman or minority or Romney is only going to win the Confederacy and the Mormon Triangle states of Utah, Idaho and Wyoming
Denial is a river in Egypt now controlled by those evil Muslim Bro’s
Michael Shur quote is perfect. Where’s Jason Bourne when you need him?