Now that Mitt Romney has all but secured the GOP nomination, focus turns to the general election where currently Romney has some serious problems. Over the past six months independents living in swing states have turned sharply away from Romney and toward President Obama, according to Gallup.

Looking at the internals, the biggest swing from Romney to Obama comes from women. Since October there has been a 12 point swing to Obama among independent men but a 19 point swing among independent women. Democrats really pushing the narrative that the GOP is waging a “war on women” seems to be working.
I think there are two main factors at play here and they are both bad news for Romney. The first is that the more people have gotten to know Romney, thanks to the Republican primary, they more they dislike him as an individual. His favorability rating has been eroding for months and is currently terrible. Most polls show a majority or at least a significant plurality hold an unfavorable view of Romney.
The other important factor is the modestly improving economy which tends to make people view the incumbent more favorably. The official unemployment rate, while still very high, is down noticeably since October and economic confidence has increased significantly.
In the past few months Obama has become a stronger candidate and Romney has gotten weaker. The net effect is bad news for the Republican Party, but of course it is still early.



23 Comments
No surprise, what with their war on wymins.
Looks like Romney will have to pick Condoleezza Rice as his running mate.
When do we get to see a poll showing what the majority of Americans want when it comes to getting out of war, raising taxes, cutting defense, starting a jobs program, bailing out Americans rather than the crooked banks?
And stick on there what both Obama and Romney will do or HAVE DONE.
I think the results will show that both Obama and Romney DON’T represent the will of the majority of the American people.
It will be a close election.
There have been many such polls. Most Americans want an end to the imperial wars, affordable education, affordable health care(NOT insurance, there’s a big difference and most people know it), higher taxes on the rich, living wages, and decent retirements.
Neither Obama nor Romney want any of those things for most Americans, for they are both members of an oligarchy that profits from the legal exploitation of the rest of us.
Gallup are TOOLS for the corrupt political partys…
Notice they only asked about candidates from the two corrupt political partys…
Notice….they DIDNT ask or give the option of ‘neither” or ‘somone other than these two”… even though ALL voters have that option… they act like it doesnt exist… even thugh it does… of course… they are tools for the corrupt political partys.
It increasingly looks like the job of dismantling what’s left of the Constitution and the middle class will fall on the capable shoulders of Barack Obama.
Which is why turnout for Obama v. Robamney will be low. Tweedles both (given our ‘beyond the looking glass’ world).
And the Shaft will continue to come down.
I wonder:
a) whether the current swing among women voters will last through the election, or will it blow over?
b) if the current swing among women voters were to return to “normal”, what would the O vs. R numbers look like?
The War on Women framing seems to be effective. Obama will have plenty of money to push it. The Republicans don’t seem to be backing down and their counter-offensive of “religious freedom (to be at War with Women)” seems to be a big fizzle. So maybe women will remain pissed. If so, I would imagine that it would extend to down-ticket races. This isn’t Romney’s War on Women, it’s the Republican Party’s War on Women.
Seems like voting for President has been turned into picking the jailor that abuses you less.
I was a +35 year Democratic voter, but now, I’m going to vote for the person/party that represents my views, and acts on them. And that’s not Obama.
Agreed. And I don’t think we will even have a preliminary read until Romney is the “official” nominee for a few weeks. Romney is just beginning his presidential rollout and we’ll have to see whether it works. I think it will so I’d say the election is still about 50-50. But there is more downside risk for Obama than Romney from here out. After all, Romney’s most difficult job was navigating the insane GOP primary: he took some damage but I think he is largely intact and now he can start attacking Obama. Obama, OTOH, will be held responsible for just about anything that goes wrong between now and November and there is PLENTY that might go wrong.
agree -
The key is the fact that the Romney 10 point drop has not produced a 10 point increase to 51 for Obama – he is stuck at 48.
It’s too presumptuous to conclude that a turn away from Romney by Independents, plus a rise in interest in Obama, has any organic relationship with each other. That underestimates the Independent mind.
I like Andy Humm and Ann Northrop’s Gay USA news program for a perspective on liberal, independent, and progressive politics. They let you know who’s faking their liberal biases and I recommend the program regardless of interest in fine tuning a grasp on LBGT news.
Anyway, I got the giggles over a recent broadcast in which both of them were wildly surprised at the results in New Hampshire on the rejection of anti-equality efforts. After all, N.H. is heavily Republican.
But it’s even heavier in independent thinking, regardless of party. Living in an adjacent state, I was not surprised at all.
I think the best line I’ve heard in a long time from Democrats is “This Republican Party is not your father’s Republican Party”
I do not think that this is just about the NATIONAL election. First, let me state that I am a male voicing this opinion.
Why I state this is not a National issue is because of all the attacks on women are happening across most, if not all, the Republican run states. In the 2010 election the Republicans ran mostly on the issues of JOBS! When they got into office, almost every Republican Governor and Republican run state houses did not focus on jobs, rather they turned to contraceptives, Planned Parenthood, “personhood amendments”, and collective bargaining, which affects many women’s jobs.
This vaginal probe issue and defunding of health services for women is not going away on the national stage, when it is effecting most women within the Republican run states. Heath care for women and asking them to return to the era of Harriet, June Cleaver, Father Knows Best, The Brady Bunch, etc. is forefront to many women and their husbands.
More women are completing college then men. They are becoming more relevant in the work force. Do you honestly believe that they are going to look at the states actions or the Blunt-Rubio Amendments and not remember or react? So if this was just a NATIONAL issue, it may have gone away, but too many Republican run states have draconian war on women and their health services!
I’m a registered Independent.
I wont be voting for either of those two corrupt scoundrels.
As in the midterm I will not vote for ANY corrupt Democrats or corrupt Republicans. I will be voting for Independent [not affiliated with any political party], Green Party and Reform Party. In any race where I only have a choice between a corrupt Democrat or a corrupt Republican I will write in a candidate.
The Democrats and Republicans have all been corrupted to the core by wealthy special interests… and they are working hand in hand to loot the country.
Enough of this madness.
gore – about 50,996 million votes
kerry – about 58,895 million votes
0bummer – about 68,498 million votes
so … the petulant irrelevant fringe of DFHs keeps wreaking havoc and wrecking the party from attracting moderates – even though the petulants are told to STFU and given peanuts –
so if we’re a FRINGE we came up with 17,000,000 votes?
OR – how about this pathetic ‘moderate’ diaper pissing on a good day, complete sell out bullshit on most days – how about sell out-ism under a blatantly phony ‘moderate’ banner inspires people NOT a bit!
how many millions will 0bummer lose this nov.? how close will his vote count be to kerry? to gore? while I’m so fed up with being betrayed for decades by these ivy sell out lying fucks that I don’t give a shit if romney and his droolers win — I wil be interested in the turnout numbers.
rmm
It doesn’t take a genius to realize that Romney won’t do anything to create jobs, unless they’re in China.
Romney, Romney, blah blah blah… unfortunately, the good news for Obama is still bad news for the rest of us.
that would explain the recent fluff on Zelikow, who was Condosleeza’s mentor.
Here here. I feel the same way. I’m done with the party of Ben Nelson Max Baucus and Charles Schumer. They are all whores for the elites. I actually have more respect for the Republicans. At least they have quit pretending to be anything other than servants to the ultra rich. Barack Obama has done more than Bush to show the true venality of American Govt and there will be nothing left of the safety net and civil liberties if he is re elected.
Clinton did all of his worst shit colluding with the Republicans in his second term. no reason whatsoever to think a lame duck Obama is suddenly going to emerge into the Progressive he never was.
Hmmmmm….hadn’t thought of that. You may be on to something.
Agree with the thought that Obama’s second will be more conservative give aways – a contrast to Clintons vetoes of welfare reform to get changes, stopping only when the Dems in Congress had joined the GOP to make a 2/3rds override of a veto certain.
As to Clintons second term – the only progressive things that got through were via Hillary’s work with Senators Ted Kennedy and Orrin Hatch passing legislation forming the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP), the largest (successful) health care reform in the years of the Clinton Presidency, plus the Adoption and Safe Families Act and two years later the Foster Care Independence Act.
Post Impeachment and Joe Lieberman’s and other Democrats agreeing to screw Clinton and work with the GOP we got the Glass-Steagall Act changes/removal(four provisions of the Banking Act of 1933 that limited commercial bank securities activities) that had been changed by “waivers” beginning with Reagan being formally changed in law so Rubin could allow his friends at Citi Bank to merge with Travelers, obtaining a post Treasury Sec career of Director of Citi for $100 million and training most of the Obama inner staff. As Krugman has noted Glass Steagal never controlled the investment banks or the hedge funds that were the cause of the out of control derivatives and the financial/housing crisis, so the Glass Steagal change that codified the changes that began under Reagan, albeit a mistake for other reasons, had nothing to do with the crisis (claiming otherwise was another Obama lie used to defeat Hillary). And we got the refusal to modify the commodities modernization to include rules for the ENRON disaster (we had to wait till 2008 to get those) and with Greenspan controlling the GOP and Congression Dem’s we got no regulations proposed either by the Fed directly (who had the authority to stop the housing bubble and control derivatives) or via the Commodities Bill to regulate derivatives.
However your statement that “Clinton did all of his worst shit colluding with the Republicans in his second term” is a canard used by Obama folks to defeat Hillary and not based on much fact. Indeed Clinton proposed an expansion of the safety net in his state of the union in his second term via a voluntary ADDON payroll deduction tax deferred savings account administered by Social Security – an expansion of retirement benefits that ran into Congressional Dem/GOP opposition to improving the senior retirement benefits – which again was used by Obama fans via a lie that claimed it was a carve out and privatization of Social Security. Obama used a lot of lies to beat Hillary – it is important to realize that they were lies – albeit Bill Clinton was a centerist Dem that shot down Hillary’s push for single payer national health, refusing to allow the task force he was going to give her to consider single payer. So better to note Bill was a centerist – and that this was far to the left of our Obama.
Bull… more lame excuses for corrupt Democrats.
Clinton and his economic team were full on, willing and active participants in the dismanteling of Glass-Steagall. No one conspired to shaft Clinton… he was a willing partner with the Republicans in the whole sordid affair.
The single biggest cause of the financial crisis was the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act. This no-nonsense regulation had protected the American people for over 50 years since the great depression.
The repeal of this iron clad regulation was brought to us courtesy of Democratic president Bill Clinton in cahoots with Democrat Robert Rubin, Republican Phil Graham, Republican Jim Leach and Democrat Lawrence Summers.
The final vote in the Democratic and Republican Senate………..90 to 8
The American people need to open their eyes.
Both the Democrats and Republicans are guilty… in ALL of this.