Heading into the Wisconsin and Maryland primaries tomorrow Mitt Romney holds a solid lead over Rick Santorum in both states according to Public Policy Polling. In Wisconsin Romney leads by seven, and in Maryland he leads by a very impressive 25 points.
Mitt Romney looks to be headed for another pair of victories in Tuesday’s primaries. Maryland is likely to be a blow out with Romney at 52% to 27% for Rick Santorum, 10% for Newt Gingrich, and 9% for Ron Paul. Wisconsin should be a good deal closer. There Romney’s at 43% to 36% for Santorum, 11% for Paul, and 8% for Gingrich.
Romney’s starting to have some success with groups that have generally been key components of Santorum’s base over the last two months. For instance he leads with Tea Party voters in both states, 43-34 in Maryland and 46-38 in Wisconsin. He’s also becoming more competitive with Evangelical voters, leading 43-36 with them in Maryland and trailing only 47-35 with them in Wisconsin. In the states where Santorum’s been victorious he’s generally won Evangelicals by a much wider margin than that.
Romney was always expected to win Maryland because of its more moderate electorate, but if he wins by this big of a margin, he should probably net all the delegates up for grabs there.
For Wisconsin this PPP poll found a nearly identical result to the Marist poll last week, which also had Romney leading by seven. Wisconsin is pretty close to a must win for Santorum, so this is very bad news for the Santorum campaign. He needs to win the state to keep Romney from securing 1144 delegates before the convention and keep himself relevant before entering a three week stretch of no primaries until April 24th. If Santorum loses Wisconsin as expected tomorrow, his campaign will basically be on a death watch.