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Once again it appears Mitt Romney is heading towards a serious defeat in the South. Ahead of Louisiana’s primary tomorrow Rick Santorum holds an impressive 14 point lead over Romney, according to a new poll by Public Policy Polling.
Rick Santorum is headed for a commanding win in Louisiana on Saturday. We find him with 42% to 28% for Mitt Romney, 18% for Newt Gingrich, 8% for Ron Paul, and 2% for Buddy Roemer.
It’s interesting to look at these numbers in the context of last week’s results in Alabama and Mississippi. Mitt Romney averaged 30% in those two contests, and that’s about where he is here. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich combined for 64% in those two contests, and they combine for a relatively similar 60% here. The big difference though is that conservative voters appears to be abandoning Gingrich for Santorum now, and that’s why Louisiana is likely to be much more lopsided than either of last week’s contests were. If Gingrich was completely out of the race Santorum would have a 22 point lead, 53-31, over Romney here with Paul at 11%
The two pieces of good news for Santorum in the poll are that he has a huge lead, and then Gingrich supporters are starting to migrate. For the first time it appears Santorum is finally starting to consolidated the entire anti-Romney vote.
Over the long term Santorum is still going to need a game changer outside of the South. He’ll continue to win primaries because he has a solid coalition among blue collar workers, very conservative voters and Evangelicals. The problem for him, though, is that Romney coalition is modestly larger and that will allow Romney to collect more delegates.
28 Comments
That is all.
I want to know who the guys from Swamp People are voting for.
Mitt was just quoted saying that Michelle reminded him of his favorite maid.
“Ahead of Louisiana’s primary tomorrow Rick Santorum holds an impressive 14 point lead over Romney”
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The ONLY surprise there……ONLY 14 POINTS???????
BTW…LOVE your editing!!!!!
Are you fucking serious?!?! Link?
On edit – or maybe that was snark… My snark radar is off today.
Correctomundo!!
Frothy just doesn’t play well:
1. anywhere that has a library
2. with people with more than 12 teeth
3. with anybody than can name at least 4 past presidents
4. anybody that CAN’T tell you the number of Dale Jr’s NASCAR Sprint Cup car
ROFLMAO. Son of a bitch!!! That’s another keyboard you owe me.
Troy is my favorite. I wonder if he’s a Santorum supporter.
nor with Catholics
How is this not testimony to the ignorance and/or stupidity that southern hillbillys and rednecks are known for? How is this not about dumbed-down voters living in geographically isolated and culturally archaic rural southern communities? How is this not about the gullibility and hypocrisy of the southern religious right? How is this not about the most popular candidate in the south being the most racist, sexist and homophobic candidate in today’s devolving and deviding dysfunctional Republican Party?
If you read up through the comments, that’s exactly what this is about.
Mormon or Moron? I think it is clear which Southern GOP voters prefer.
I’m sure that Gingrich is getting some excellent under-the-table “consideration” for staying in and blunting any momentum that Santorum may come up with. The party honchos will see to that. They’ve got their flat-earthers just about where they want them; thoroughly pissed off, but the anger at Romney can and will, be transferred to Obama with very little difficulty.
What’s your point? :-)
LOL. That was good!!!!
As someone who currently lives in a “sea of red,” I really believe that Obama’s biggest threat will come from Rick Santorum. Evangelicals (according to the polls) basically “sat out” the last Presidential Election. Obviously, conservatives didn’t like McCain, but more than that, they did not believe that Obama was electable.
That won’t happen again, trust me. The Republican party HQ in the college town I live in, never shut down after the last presidential election. It’s located on the town square, and are you ready for this? They had a building size mural of Ronald Reagan painted on the side of the building, facing the square–I’m not joking!!!
If gas prices don’t drop considerably, I believe that it won’t be that difficult to defeat Obama, period. And, more and more, watching the churches here hold their phone banks, etc., until the wee hours of the morning on Wednesday and Sunday evenings (not to mention the 2010 mid term election turnout), I’m beginning to believe that even Rick Santorum may be able to beat Obama come November.
Blue
Somebody with a real purdy mouth, I’m guessin’…
“He’ll continue to win primaries because he has a solid coalition among blue collar workers” What’s wrong with this statement???
Is it too late to cute the South free?
Santorum surging down south in the freakish clown show.
Even if Sani-Flush loses decisively in the primaries to Willard, there will be hundreds of crazy delegates–crazy, even by GOP standards–going to the national convention. Unless the party elders figure out a way to put a lid on them, the convention will prove even more embarrassing to the GOP than 1964 or 1992.
Oh pretty please keep Santorum in the race as a spoiler as long as possible, bedeviling rmoney.
What about a Romney-Santorum ticket? The Coupon Clipper and the Bible Belter, back together by popular demand.
What I find interesting is that Santorum wins states that will simply not vote for Obama, or for any democrat for that matter. Romney wins republican votes in the states that will be contested in the fall. The republicans are crazy if they go with anyone other than Romney and that seems to be the story line that is developing.
Santorum makes for a good side show, but the real contest is just about to begin.
There is no “contest”. The outcome has already been determined by the oligarchy and we’ll be cursed with whatever corporate puppet the 1% decide will enrich them the most.
Chuck Thompson, a travel writer from the gonzo school, is coming out with a book about the South. Its title: “Better Off Without ‘Em”.
If it wasn’t for those guys named Grant and Sherman we wouldn’t be stuck with those fucking idiots in our country.
The party honchos will see to that. They’ve got their flat-earthers just about where they want them; thoroughly pissed off, but the anger at Romney can and will, be transferred to Obama with very little difficulty.
You know, the Republican party itself really is the best possible argument for elitism. The Democratic base always has to worry about their corrupt party leaders, while the Republicans have a rather different problem. The GOP elites are fairly reasonable (George W. Bush didn’t hesitate to pick a gay man, Ken Mehlman, to be RNC chairman) but they always have to worry about their corrupt party base.