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It looks like it could be a late night tomorrow with Republican primaries taking place in Mississippi, Alabama, and Hawaii. The latest polling from PPP shows both Mississippi and Alabama extremely close. In Mississippi Newt Gingrich leads Mitt Romney by only two points; in Alabama it is nearly a three way tie with Gingrich, Romney and Santorum separated by just two points. From PPP:
Tuesday looks like it’s going to be a close election night in both Mississippi and Alabama. In Mississippi Newt Gingrich is holding on to a slight lead with 33% to 31% for Mitt Romney, 27% for Rick Santorum, and 7% for Ron Paul. And Alabama is even closer with Romney at 31% to 30% for Gingrich, 29% for Santorum, and 8% for Paul.
Gingrich and Santorum are both more popular than Romney in each of these states. In Mississippi Gingrich’s net favorability is +33 (62/29) to +32 for Santorum (60/28) and +10 for Romney (51/41). It’s a similar story in Alabama where Santorum’s at +32 (63/31), Gingrich is at +26 (58/32), and Romney’s at only +13 (53/40).
The divided field continues to be the big saving grace for the Romney campaign. Mitt Romney has a serious weakness in the South and the Great Plains states. But as long as Gingrich and Santorum split the very conservative vote, no one can gain a significant number of delegates on Romney; Romney might even pull off a small plurality victory.
If either Gingrich or Santorum were to drop out, Romney might experience some real trouble in the South. With both of them still in it, Romney can afford to do just mediocre in the region while racking up his delegate lead, thanks to his strength in the West and North East. Since it seems very unlikely that Gingrich or Santorum will drop out, Romney has a clear but slow and brutal path to the nomination.
8 Comments
Who cares?
Does anybody really believe that this election process is anything other than an immense payoff of the MSM for services rendered to the 1%?
More than any other thing, our elections have become a sewer funneling wealth to the owners of the media that is nothing but a system to keep us in the dark as concerns the machinations of our masters.
By the time the elections role around, the GOP will have convinced half the electorate that their votes have been negated by ‘socialist’ cheating, and the Democrats will offer no resistance to this debasing of the public discourse/trust, because they’re satisfied just to retake the WH, and continue the kabuki.
I think the word I want to use here is, “Amen”, but I hesitate to sound too much like Sanitarium.
But “Who cares?” sums up the entire, obscene predicament, nicely.
For a while there it looked like the repub leadership might pay Gingrich to get out of the race; now it looks like they might pay him to stay in.
If he gets out, Santorum could pick up enough wingnut support to bedevil Romney all the way to the convention.
:o)
P.S. Barack Obama might send Newt a buck or two to get out. :o)
“…because they’re satisfied just to retake the White House and continue the kabuki.”
Hammer-nail-bang. :o)
Of course, that letting the air out of the ball thingy might backfire on them. As I recall, the mid-terms didn’t do a whole lot for a “bi-partisan” preznint and his party. :o)
Thank you for your continued fine one-stop reporting on the GOP Klown Kar, Jon. I really appreciate being able to drop by FDL Elections on Monday morning and know what to expect tomorrow. Even if it falls into the “kabuki” and “who cares?” category for some readers, elections are core to our values here. FDL has always been about elections; becoming less relevant to some readers doesn’t diminish the fact that many of us depend on your reporting of them.
I like reading these posts and hope you continue to provide them. Thanks.
May I add my “thanks” too Teddy. Understand, us Texans, with Perry out of the race, have had to find some other interesting “toe shooting” and cowchip throwing” to keep us interested. Fortunately, with FDL, we have something almost every day.
If Romney loses AL and MS, which is likely, his inevitability starts sounding less…….well……inevitable.
Saw “Game Change” Saturday. Fascinating and very well done. Emmy for sure for Julianne and maybe Woody too!!!
Ifn you missed it, don;t let that hhappen again.
Several GOP aids at the tiem said the moveie was “freakingly accurate”.
You say that, “Mississippi and Alabama remain very “tight”?
Are they tipsy, as well?
Yes, this is all veddy serious, it is about values and principles.
If you’ve got ‘em, then smoke ‘em …
However, Jon, I hope that you might seriously consider more posts such as this one, it being, I consider, very much closer to the actual needed DISCUSSION of values and principles this society MUST engage, FDL among the most-engaged.
http://elections.firedoglake.com/2012/03/08/election-laws-not-limited-ideology-produce-our-two-party-system/
Thank you, in advance.
DW
I want to appologize if my comment was taken as insulting to the poster, and I can see how that could be the case.
I do not mean to belittle your analysis Jon, only our collective perception that there might be any shred of legitimacy left in American presidential politics.
Yes, Teddy, there is much at stake that requires participation in the coming elections, but voting for president will be an empty gesture this year.