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There are two main trends right now helping to improve President Obama’s re-election prospects. One is that signs of a mildly improving economy helped boost Obama’s job approval numbers. Much like the recent economic indicators, Obama’s job numbers aren’t subjectively all that good, but they have significantly improved since last September.
The other big trend improving Obama’s chances at winning a second term is the huge drop in Mitt Romney’s favorable rating with the general public. During the course of this GOP presidential primary, Romney’s favorability is tanking with regular voters. Most polls now show his net favorable rating in deeply negative territory. According to Quinnipiac, since November Romney’s net favorability rating went from a +5 to a -8. From Quinnipiac:
TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?
FAVORABLE.....
High Low
Feb 22 Nov 22 Nov 02 Oct 05 Aug 31 Oct 05 May 03
2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2007
Favorable 35 36 35 39 36 39 17
Unfavorable 43 31 35 28 27 28 16
Hvn't hrd enough 19 31 27 31 35 31 65
REFUSED 3 3 2 2 2 2 2
Similarly, Purple Strategies’ PurplePoll (PDF) of swing states has found Romney’s unfavorable numbers growing rapidly these past few months.
The campaign’s impact on Mitt Romney’s personal popularity has been palpable: today, just 27% have a favorable view of him, while 57% have an unfavorable view. In the first PurplePoll in September of last year, 32% had a favorable view (39% unfavorable). In other words, over the course of the campaign, Romney’s favorables in Purple states have declined by 5 points, while his unfavorables have increased by 18 points – a net decline of 23 points.
Whether this drop in Romney’s favorability is the result of him needing to tack hard right to try to win the Republican nomination, or simply due to the fact that the more people learn about Romney the less they like him is hard to tell. Either way this should be a very concerning development for his campaign, and the GOP as a whole. Once people form a negative opinion about something, it is hard to get them to change their minds.
While it is true that president elections tend to mostly be referendums on the incumbent and the state of the economy, the quality of the main opposition candidate does matter. It’s easy to see how some people who don’t believe Obama deserves another term will simply not vote, or will vote for a third party, if they also hold a very poor opinion of the main alternative.
12 Comments
Romney’s faves running like dog diarrhea, off his windshield.
I’m afraid of Romney because his body language suggests a very erratic individual without a true moral center.
He is at times frightening in his rapid switch from flinty anger to phoney guffawing.
His father must have been a terrifying man to young Mitt.
I think he looked beleaguered, somewhat drained, last night. That didn’t appear so much in his speaking, which was disciplined and ready.
“It was supposed to be a cakewalk by now. . .what’s happening?” was the body language. Forced artificial smiles, little natural spontaneity there.
I thought his dad was a Casper Milquetoast among the Gerald Ford clique.
Enough of the fuck_ing horse race! How about something that begins developing an organization, strategy and tactics for the transformation of a corrupt political and economic system that is incapable of reform no matter who is elected.
I don’t care. What a waste of space. I’m voting for a third party if I vote at all.
I agree. He is coming much more righteously indignant than he did several months ago. Plus, the fact that he makes $47,000 a day DOING NOTHING probably didn’t help either. THAT pisses off even rich people.
Nail + Head. I had the same observation.
I’m guessing about the home life, not Romney Sr. in great power cliques.
Oddly enough, I believe some of the reasons he seems awkward is unlike Obama he isn’t comfortable with hiding who he is to win. Unfortunately, at this point he has probably come to the conclusion that he can’t win without doing that. So now he’s just throwing crap out there trying to get the part of the nutball party to stop fighting him so darm hard.
With Obama I got this impression that he really wanted everyone to like him and would go out of his way to get everyone to like him, with Mitt I get the impression he likes himself more than enough for the rest of us and is perplexed as to why we don’t like him.
Please try to understand. Some of us or many spent good money listening to psych instructors or reading self help doggerel and we have no place to show off our learning.
I thought the whole point of the internet and blogs in general was specifically to give us an outlet for all that edumacation.