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President Obama’s job approval rating has started to break the very important 50 percent mark according to three new national polls. The CBS News/New York Times poll found him at 50 percent approval to 43 percent disapproval, CNN/ORC International has him at 50 percent approval to 48 percent disapproval, and the Democracy Corps poll puts him at 50 percent approval to 46 percent disapproval.
These are the best job approval ratings for Obama since early May, following the killing of Osama Bin Laden. This also represents a huge improvement since the beginning of autumn when Obama’s numbers slipped into sharply negative territory.
The primary source of this solid turnout for Obama is clearly the improving opinions about the economy, not the result of any rhetorical shift. The official unemployment rate is down noticeably since the summer and the four week moving average for initial unemployment claims is the lowest it has been since 2008. This news has caused a steady, and substantial, improvement in economic optimism. The Gallup economic confidence index experienced a significant steady improvement since it low last Summer.
Even more impressive has been the recent huge swing in economic outlook found by Pew Research. For the first since early 2010 a plurality of the country, 44 percent, thinks the economic will be better in a year.
As long as the economy seems to be improving, people are far more likely to think, rightly or wrongly, that Obama is making smart economic decisions. Similarly people become more willing to give him a pass on the smaller actions they don’t agree with or to forgive his past mistakes as long as they see the country as a whole improving.
If these economic trends keep up, Obama’s job approval number should break 50 percent and he will be in good shape come November. On the other hand, if the economy experiences another dip like last summer expect people to again judge his performance very harshly.
18 Comments
The GOP’s madness has helped him, too.
And the fact that Obama is no longer offering Social Security and Medicare on a silver platter to Boehner for a “grand bargain” on the deficit helps as well.
In 2011, Obama’s approval was completely in the tank because he was deliberately ignorning the job market and was too busy wooing Boehner over the deficit hysteria.
Well, Obama did talk about “reforms” to “strengthen” Social Security in his SOTU address. We all know what that means.
Nonsense! It’s all about his willingness to make Hard Choices™ on the deficit! And reach across the aisle to seek common ground on ways to screw retirees! And his prudent caution about letting women make medical decisions for themselves!
When I became a member of FDL, the site wasn’t pimping Barry Obama. If that’s changed, I have better places to put my money.
Where do you see “pimping”? JW notes that Obama’s doing better in polls because people think the economy’s improving. That’s all.
“If these economic trends keep up…”
As they say in the Cackalack: “If a bullfrog had wings, he wouldn’t bump his ass on the ground…”
Monster “if” there, Jon. :o)
His new budget is, of course, dead in the water, since the repubs have locks on the board in the House. In fact, anything that involves spending money, they can monkey-wrench all to hell and gone.
Reality: Gas is back up to around $3.50 a gallon, and groceries are steadily climbing, with a loaf of decent whole wheat bread at $4-plus dollars. My auto insurance goes up about every 3-4 months (no violations…) and the price of a quart of generic oil at Advance Auto is also about $4 a quart. Same thing with the oil filters and other maintenance stuff… steady increase in the price…does anyone on here think that the cost of medical care is going down???
Thanks; I didn’t think so. :o)
A sheet of half-inch plywood that, not too many years ago, was about $5, is now $15-$18.
The drop in unemployment numbers, is, I feel, due in part to the warm winter we’ve generally had and much of it is the direct result of a bunch of hamburger flippers and the like, being hired.
Then, there’s the international situation. I hope you’re not going to start telling us how improved that is. :o)
Put it like this: relative to the mid-east and Iran, Barack Obama is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Benjamin Netanyahu, Inc. “Bibi” can do just about anything he wants, relative to Iran, and Obama will have to go along with it. The Israelis can go pre-emptive all they want, and Obama will have to join in. If he foot-drags, the republicans will flay the ass off him, and the Jewish voters will help them do it.
In fact, it’s not much of a stretch to say that Obama’s political future is in Netanyahu’s hands. If he hits Iran, it won’t matter if it’s with Obama’s permission or not; I don’t think that Obama can survive the resultant turmoil, politically speaking. The best that Obama can hope for is to cut some really juicy and beneficial agreement (under-the-table, of course…) with the Israeli’s to keep them from attacking Iran…at least until after the election.
The Taliban are watching the american political landscape with interest. A “Tet offensive” just before the election won’t go on George Bush’s bar tab.
I think the republicans are being careful not to humiliate Obama and outline what a lame duck he is, too early. If they go the whole hog on that now, they could turn him into a sympathy figure, and they’re smart enough to not do that. If they wait until mid-summer or fall, then it will play better in Peoria, especially if it turns out that the bloom is off the economic “surge” rose. Which it could easily be.
The short of it: I think it’s way too early to be congratulating Obama on his comeback., and the “stay-the-course!” democrats who are doing it are whistling past the graveyard of political reality.
The GOP’s madness has helped him, too…”
Hammer-nail-bang.
If it weren’t for the fact that the repub candidates look to be batshit crazy a lot of the time, Obama’s numbers wouldn’t have led any threaders to be posting, repeatedly, about how well he’s doing and about the democrats chances to hang on to the Senate, blah-blah-blah…
But relativity cuts both ways, if the shit hits the fan in the mid-east, and the economic repercussions turn out to be awful (not to mention the “collateral” damage in human beings…) it won’t be salutary to Obama’s chances for re-election. In fact, that little consideration is going to be paramount in the minds of a lot of people in powerful places, both here and abroad.
Any attack on Iran will have to be pervasive and overwhelming to try to ensure that they can’t disrupt shipping in the Strait and take retribution in other ways. It will also be bloody and infuriating to Shia everywhere, and quite possibly, to a lot of non-Shia Muslims across the world. HUGE downsides…but they won’t appear to be that to Israel; if they can drag the mid-east into a war that they (with our help) will “win” militarily, then covering Obama’s ass will be of zero interest to them, especially with the coterie of repubs all vying to be Israel’s bestest bud, waiting in the wings.
“Repulsive Progressive Hypocrisy” – Glenn Greenwald
http://www.salon.com/2012/02/08/repulsive_progressive_hypocrisy/singleton/
Hard truth, ‘chin…that few democrats want to hear spoken or see written.
Good job puttin’ up that link.
“If these economic trends keep up, Obama’s job approval number should break 50 percent and he will be in good shape come November.”
Obama should be glad that Democrats, and Americans in general, only care about how their individual economy is faring at election time. Any concerns about drone strikes, indefinite detention, Guantanamo, Bradley Manning, demonizing Wikileaks, cracking-down on med-marijuana, extending Bush’s tax-cuts, whistle-blower harassment, no accountability for Wall Street, saying that he is “in lock-step with Israel” regarding Iran, etc, don’t much enter the equation, given that his “progressive” base is “in lock-step” with his leadership.
This article on the front page and others like it is why I do not bother coming to the front page here. I know that I am far from alone.
T Bogg and company are the regulars. On the side bar is where the real political debates and discussions are.
Who is hiring? No one? Perhaps some poverty wage jobs? Really, I mean we all know unemployment only lasts so long and then you are no longer counted.
I don’t think FDL is “pimping Barry Obama”, but I don’t really give a care about his polls – or election. The report is just news, not pimping.
In more important news IMO was the Suffuck univ poll that has Warren well behind Scott Brown in Mass – it is totally at odds with other polls released this week showing her in the lead, but I checked the internals and they did a good job matching the state’s known characteristics. Curious.
Some folks I know well that have been out for a year or more are starting to get return calls and some are getting interviews – and some getting jobs – but at 20 to 25% lower wages than they made a year ago or when last employed.
Higher level professional jobs to India and China seems common.
Makes the “get an education” mantra seem like yet another con-job.
Even now the Suffolk Univ poll showed him losing Ohio and Florida, as I recall, thus losing the election, with the only way to win being putting Hillary on the ticket as VP to bring back the lunch pail Democrats.
Since that is not going to happen, I don’t see how he wins – at least not easily. The WH staff has him winning non-traditional states – as in 2008 but more – as if the left will come out like 2008 for him – so screw the VP choice and screw Ohio and Florida. I suspect arrogance may have a cost this time.
It is the GOP Madness that has helped him. He still is not getting my vote…
The rosy unemployment numbers have been thoroughly debunked. The Sheeple are believing the official lies about the economy.
Obama is a liar, torturer, murderer and traitor. But he has a 50% approval rating so I guess everything is fine and dandy.
Papau, I agree with you to some extent, but the idea that putting Hillary on the ticket will bring back “the lunch pail democrats” is, I think, nonsense. In the 2008 election her pandering to the right was so repulsive to progressives
that her natural constituency (liberals, NOT blue-dog dems…) left her in droves and gave the White House to Obama.
More: She’s still anathema to Independents and putting her on the ticket will be like waving a red flag in front of republicans; they will be getting out of their death beds to vote against a ticket with her on it.