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The Senate map for 2012 is just inherently awful for Democrats. They have to defend incumbents in 23 states, while the Republicans only need to defend 10. Even if there is a relatively strong national Democratic turnout in 2012, the party will likely still have a net loss of Senate seats.
With that factored in, though, the prospects for the Democrats at least narrowly holding on to the chamber have been improving.
New polling in three potential competitive Senate races, Massachusetts, Ohio, and Michigan, has all been relatively positive for Democrats.
Massachusetts – A new WBUR poll has Democrat Elizabeth Warren with a three point lead over incumbent Republican Scott Brown, Warren 46 percent to Brown 43 percent. For an incumbent to be trailing (and below 50 percent) this early is a very bad sign. Massachusetts is one of the Democrats’ only pickup opportunities this cycle and will likely be needed to offset almost assured loses elsewhere.
Michigan – Incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow now has a 14 point lead over potential Republican rival Pete Hoekstra. This is a huge improvement from earlier in the year; also important, Stabenow is polling at least 50 percent in potential matchups. From PPP:
Debbie Stabenow’s taken her biggest lead yet in 4 polls of the Michigan Senate race PPP has conducted dating back to December of 2010. She now leads Pete Hoekstra by 14 points, 51-37, and has an even wider 17 point advantage over Clark Durant at 50-33. In 3 previous polls Stabenow led Hoekstra by an average of just 7 points and on the most recent one, in July, her lead was 9.
What’s interesting is that Stabenow’s approval numbers have barely budged at all over the last 6 months. Over the summer we found her at 46/40, and now she’s at 47/41. But Hoekstra’s numbers have taken a turn for the worst. In July his favorability was narrowly positive at 31/30. Now he’s dropped a net 11 points to a -10 spread at 28/38. There hasn’t been a big shift in his numbers with Democrats or Republicans but with independents his numbers have flipped from +10 (33/23) to -10 (29/39).
Ohio – Ohio incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown hasn’t seen his numbers improving, but he is still holding a steady, significant lead in polling. According to Quinnipiac polling Brown leads Republican Josh Mandel 48 percent to 35 percent. This roughly 12 point lead is basically unchanged since last summer. Brown’s favorable numbers are also steady, 41 percent favorable to 46 percent unfavorable.
There was a time earlier last year when it looked like Democrats could be heading towards very big losses in the Senate this year. A net loss of half a dozen or more seats seemed possible. With both the economy and President Obama’s polling showing signs of modest but steady improvement in the past few months, there are now signs the Democrats could narrowly hold on to the Senate in spite of how unfavorable the Senate map is. It is still very early in the season, but things are looking less gloomy for Senate Democrats.
27 Comments
What’s the diff?
Exactly.
Factor in the environment of the last 10 years, where nothing passes without 60 votes, and a 51/49 split for the Dems doesn’t matter.
Reid or McConnel; Torture or Tortoise.
Voter Fraud in Maine
http://revolutionarypolitics.tv/video/viewVideo.php?video_id=17793
http://occupytvstations.com/blog/maine-gop-covering-up-a-ron-paul-landslide
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?authkey=CKT21ZkH&hl=en_US&key=0AjQBwcCtzwG8dEdGUWZjS1FwTW8wTzVyOEJ6dmg4cHc&toomany=true#gid=1
Do they have black box vote machines?
Surely people are sick enough of the three monkey show from the Senate and House republicans.
Oh, and the Presidential candidates…
Newt, the Walrus tossing a beachball while the other little pups run through hoops and grin.
We have the R. retiring, and I am not sure Ive even heard a D be mentioned…Have you?
Well as long as Fighter For the Little Guy, Liz Warren, gets elected things should improve.
Her large paychecks utilized only carbon neutral, free range money, not evil money.
It generates a false sense of security while they continue their Kabuki and elimination of our “rights”.
” … things are looking less gloomy for Senate Democrats.”
Tell me, Jon, to expand on eCAHN’s trenchant comment, what is the relative difference in the “gloom” that the people, the 99%, and the planet will experience, regardless of whether the “R” end or the “D” end of the Rich “Person’s” Party “picks”, should “win”? Realizing, as you must, that the so-called “representative” form of governance, as it is “practiced” in the US, is a complete and utter sham? It is also a shame, or it should be, however as you, yourself, pointed out, saying that “… basic democratic accountability isn’t how our system works.”
Again, perhaps tediously, the “system” is NOT ours, nor has it ever been, and of late, since “Citizens United”, there is not even the merest pretense that the needs, the dire and basic needs, of the people figure into the calculus of the political class, all of it, including the media, which is a part of the damnable and much-despised political class.
Ah, well …
DW
TWOOPH!
What we have is a Defunct Government. We all know the cure for that one and it is found in the Declaration of Independence.
Bernie Sanders (arguably on 99% side) and Warren (possibly on 99%) so we could hope for a 51-49 split and have two potential advocate on the side of the people with deciding votes on non important (non 60 cloture vote) issues. It’s a start, maybe…
Three-cornered hats for everybody!!!!
Which pier are we gathering at????
Undoubtedly, aside from who wins president (not that it matters) will be if the GOP loses the house and the democrats can regain “control” of the senate.
I don’t think that is out of the question.
Now, although I was figurin’ Romney had this sewed up…..apparently the GOP clown car is “moving” again under the control of Rick #2.
Fascinating!!!!!!!!!
I suppose we will have to take our votes for “American Idol” and “Dancing with the Stars” to heart and value them as our last and final voices in our dear American republic.
(cue “Battle Hymn of the Republic”)
Fade to black.
How many Senators have bleached teeth, how many have implants, how many have caps, and how many have their natural teeth?
And geez…..have you seen the government “cost” for “boner pills”???
Jon — There are NO Democrats in the Senate.
Or in the House.
The last of the true Democrats died off a long time ago, and we just didn’t notice at the time.
Hell, with the trajectory the republicans are on, I think we will pick up seats.
Hopefully Obama can get reelected and keep lobbyists from influencing the White House. He can’t do that now because….well…because…he just can’t right now.
The difference could be if Obama wins and if the Democrats in the Senate have the balls to temporarily suspend the cloture rule for say ninety days or longer! They will have the authority but do they have the will? Ninty days would allow appointments and key legislation to get through without totally destroying the protection of minority!
Democrats!? Democrats!? I really don’t give a shit about their Senate prospects, given their decades old shittiness when it comes to the people’s business.
Sod the duoploy!
But, but THE SUPREME COURT! Everybody always has to vote for whatever shitty Democrat is running, decade after decade, or the Supreme Court will become more reactionary than it already is!
We’ll get 2 times as many pretty speeches and bills that will never past the duopoly money party. Woohoo! I love Bernie and Warren has on a number of occasions been a stand up individual(at least on economic issues) but a minority of 2 is not going to change much. At the rate we’re going at getting real and better Democrats into Congress we should have control in a couple of thousand years.
I’ll go with a third party option thank you since this whole entire “more better Democrat” thing hasn’t exactly worked well thus far. That strategy certainly can’t go much worse.
Perish the thought that a court might decide that corporations are people or that money is speech – oh wait- my bad.
“They will have the authority, but do they have the will?”
Which has been the problem all along. Obama had more clout than any recent president, and he’s spent his first three years in office in determinedly squandering it.
Why anyone should think that he’s going to be different if he wins a second term is beyond me. Also, there is practically zero chance that the democrats will return to control of the purse strings, by winning the House, and without that “reform” stands hardly a chance.
What Bollox said. We HAD the numbers, big time! And along with that, the clear support of the voters for real change, and Obama hid under his damn desk. Look how little came of it. With his status-quo agenda, I’d rather see him in some corporate think-tank where his “values” would be up-front and much less effective for the 1 percent.