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Recently we have seen a string of positive economic indicators that all point to the same general pattern. While the individual pieces are subjectively good compared to pre-crisis level, the data gives the clear impression that the economy is modestly trending in a positive direction.
The GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter. The Department of Labor found better than expected payroll growth in January with 243,000 new jobs added. Weekly initial unemployment claims were down this week and the 4 week average is the lowest it has been since May 2008.
In addition Gallup found that economic confidence has been trending upward for five straight months and American’s life rating has been trending upward since October. In addition, Gallup found small business hiring intentions are the best they have been since the begin of 2011. From Gallup:
In isolation numbers are not objectively good. At a rate of 243,000 new job per month, it will takes us years to get back full employment. Economic confidence is way up from this summer but still not even as good as it was in much of 2010. Small business hiring intentions is better but not back to pre-crisis levels. The important thing, though, is the clear direction of the trends.
Not surprisingly, President Obama’s job approval numbers on the economy are near perfectly following the same pattern as the economic indicators over the past year. From Gallup:
For a president having only 38 percent of the country approve of his handling of the economy while 59 percent disapprove is still objectively bad, but the trend is clearly moving in the right direction. This bad job approval number is a serious improvement from the summer.
The same basic thing can be said about the economy and our incumbent president’s approval rating. Not good, but there is a trend towards modest improvement.
26 Comments
Still waiting for someone that knows new math better than I, how gaining 243,000 jobs/month against new UI claims of 1,500,000 for the month of January is positive.
There are lies, damned lies, and statistics. I love good statistics, maybe we should create a Department of Good Statistics to insure the statistics are always good. How about a statistic reflecting how many cardboard signs you see at the street corner. Way up in my area according to my lying eyes.
“Boast” Pun intended?
Can’t figure out where this economic confidence is coming from. Perhaps it’s, in the words of Greenspan, “irrational exuberance”, or perhaps voters have devolved into raging lunatics. I don’t think this confidence is necessarily a good thing if it represents “hopey changey” all over again.
He ain’t gainin’ no points with me nor my drinkin’ buddies down here. al the other shit he’s doin’ just pissin us off.
I’m not sure if the job gains aren’t just part of a normal recovery.
Well
Rachel Maddow, Eddie Schultz, Rev Sharpton, Thom Hartmann et all could not have done a better job at carrying water for Obama and his Wall Street cronies.
This kind of fluff is why I look at the Front page as being irrelevant. No better than MSNBC, The Nation, Air America etc etc.
The real stuff lies in the side bar areas. IMHO of course. Ok back to the side bar ghetto for me.
Ghettos. Where resistance is born.
Plus we need between 90,000 to 150,000 (depending on who you believe)new jobs per month just to keep even with population growth.
Ghettos; where most of the 99% will live in the future.
oh and there is no way these polls just like the D of L are full of BS. Someone please help me understand why every day it seems we get inundated with these stories about what the latest polls show. On the one hand it seems everyone here knows we are being lied to at every level and on the other they post poll info that only serves to promote the lies and push the illusion.
case in point
n addition Gallup found that economic confidence has been trending upward for five straight months and American’s life rating has been trending upward since October. In addition, Gallup found small business hiring intentions are the best they have been since the begin of 2011.
then like a miracle the job number improved and wait till the govt factors in fraudclosure settlement. people will be giddy and gallup will confirm it.
Refer to comment #2
positive economic news eh ?…..yeah! sure for the 1% folks….the rest of us not so much….
Who in their right effing mind would believe anything coming from the American Govt……anyone remember,Iraq has WMDs & we have to invade ‘em to protect ourselves from a 45 minute launch or how about to give ‘em FREEDOM…
Arbusto @1
Here is the explanation. Your math is amiss because you are measuring a net number [243,000] against a gross number [1,500,000].
I really don’t understand your complaint. Obama job approval numbers have gone up, this is the reason. If you don’t like it that is fine but it is just data.
You know what they say, for every silver lining, there’s a big gray cloud.
All the positive polls are the result of the rising stock market = rising “wealth effect”. What I learned in Econ 101. As soon as the market tumbles all is lost on that track. Any guesses to when the market will tank again? I’m taking November 6.
If you have to explain now, then like Rachel Maddow, you will never get it.
Seriously.
“In addition Gallup found that economic confidence has been trending upward for five straight months and American’s life rating has been trending upward since October.”
————
I tend to look at that a little differently. IMO, many people are of the opinion, “It couldn’t possibly get any worse.” I guess you COULD call that “trending upward”.
You know I never disagree with you. But WHY would the market tank? The rich and filty rich will get what THEY want no matter who wins. I think I’m quoting YOU, BTW.
Market will tank big time when Euro goes south (and it will).
Greece is just the beginning over there. The rich and filthy rich are like meth addicts. I really think the Greek people will revolt and like dominoes (as we saw in the Arab spring) Spain, Portugal, Italy, Ireland etc. will revolt in some way or another. And you can quote me on that too!
OT-oldgold, I’ve been hoping to run into you for a week, just to tell you that you have a completely wrong impression of my impression of you. I have total respect for your integrity and good faith, even thought we differ on many positions. You are just as legit as I am, and I would not want to be here without diverse views expressed in good faith. That cigarette thing you referenced, that was just meant to verify who I was talking about, trying to be discreet and not say your name explicitly. A touch of gentle mockery, perhaps, but that comes with the territory of being disagreed with. Not meant to give offense or hurt any feelings. Seriously, sir, I could not be more sincere about this. I am proud and happy to share this space with you. I would hope you would feel the same.
FWIW, I got into a short position this week. I’m a little worried about it, but think it will prove to be the right move very soon. Seems to me that all the “good news” for corps is out now, that is when you want to sell. At the highest point since the bottom in March 2009. Sell high, buy low. We are high.
Data. Really says who. whose data is it. who draws those conclusions, who frames the questions, who decides the sample and so on.
Jon I think a number of people here find these polls pointless not least for the reasons i pointed out above. But the polls you do on who is ahead in repubs race or how they would stack up against Obama take the cake. The system is a fraud there are no two parties, and whether you realize it or not posting that crap just promotes the illusion. And that is what they want and every little bit helps
Exactly, we know have A statistic for unemployment and then a statistic for real unemployment. WTF
Yes, and thank you so much for posting that much-needed comment.
Thanx for your comment. It saves me from typing the same. The only party is the Corporate Party and our current economic state is due to the implementation of “disaster capitalism” in the “Homeland”. The Banksters and their political puppets are incredibly effective at economic warfare.
The right is scared shitless of actual cuts, because they know for every dollar the government spends, an additional dollar is added to the GDP.
Ergo they will always back down in showdowns over the budget. We will ride the debt train until it goes over the cliff, if it ever does.