Tomorrow two more states, Colorado and Minnesota, are holding their Republican Presidential primary caucuses. In both states Mitt Romney is in relatively good shape according PPP, the only company that has done recent polling in the two states. In Colorado, Romney holds a big lead, while in Minnesota he barely trails Rick Santorum by two points. From PPP:
In Colorado Mitt Romney looks primed for another big Western win to match his one in Nevada. He leads with 40% there to 26% for Rick Santorum, 18% for Gingrich, and 12% for Ron Paul.
Minnesota looks like a toss up with any of the four candidates having some shot at winning. Santorum holds a small edge there with 29% to 27% for Romney, 22% for Gingrich, and 19% for Paul.
What both states have in common is that Gingrich has fallen precipitously since our last polls in them. In Colorado Gingrich was in first place with a 19 point lead in early December. His support has declined 19 points since then and his net favorability has dropped 33 points from +41 (64/23) to only +8 (49/41). Gingrich has had a similarly large decline in Minnesota, but there it’s much more abrupt. We polled the state only two weeks ago but in that time he’s dropped 14 points from 36% to 22%, and his favorability has [sic] 26 points from +34 (59/25) to +8 (47/39). That after glow from South Carolina has worn off real fast.
In addition to these two states Missouri is technically holding a purely “beauty contest” primary. It is the caucus in March that is the actual contest where delegates get decided. Newt Gingrich isn’t on the primary ballot in Missouri for this reason.
Tomorrow is shaping up to be a good night for both the Santorum campaign and the Romney campaign. Santorum could win in Minnesota, and at the very least he will likely outperform Newt Gingrich in all three states. This could help Santorum make the case to donors and voters that he, not Gingrich, is the best Romney alternative.
For Romney it should be a good night because he is almost guaranteed another large win in Colorado and could potentially also win Minnesota. In addition a modestly strong showing by Santorum will give Santorum a reason to stay in the race. This will mean both Santorum and Gingrich will likely continue to run until at least Super Tuesday. This will help prevent the anti-Romney forces from lining up behind a single alternative. The longer the field remains divided the better things probably are for Romney.



6 Comments
THIS PERTAINS THE OBAMA / FAA / LABOR GETS SHAFTED COLUMN
FOLLOWING THIS COLUMN.
I’M PLACING IT HERE BECAUSE THE OTHER COLUMN HAS “COMMENTS OFF.”
Obama is not the God of Shaka-Ri.
Neither he nor Howard Dean will acknowledge the fraud / folly /
benefits to the billionaires / false blame on everyone else in the
U.S. and around the world.
GOP: crazy
Democrats under Dean / Obama : variously shades of smart-ass fraud
Pro-democracy: the Kennedy’s, Martin Luther King, etc.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYW_lPlekiQ
That comment above is weird. But weirder yet is Santorum running neck and neck with Romney in Minnesota. I was under the impression that aside from Bachmans crazy district, that there were good people in Minnesota.
Gingrich in THIRD place???????
Callista is NOT gonna be happpy with those Minnesotaites.
There are, but apparently none of them were incuded in that poll.
I think you will find that you just have to put in a comment for the “off” sign to go away….;)
The crazy wing and the crooked wing of the MN GOP purged all the moderates ages ago; it’s one of the few things they’ve ever agreed upon. It’s why Arne Carlson is now an independent.
Funnily enough, Ron Paul’s been carpetbombing the state with TV ads for the past two weeks, yet I’ve only seen one Romney ad so far. Romney must be counting on his “I’m the only one who can win” mojo to do the job here.