Newt Gingrich’s remarkable national surge over the past several days has also now put him in the lead in Florida a week before that primary. From PPP:
PPP’s first post-South Carolina poll in Florida finds Newt Gingrich with a small lead. He’s at 38% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 13% for Rick Santorum, and 10% for Ron Paul.
Gingrich has gained 12 points since a PPP poll conducted in Florida a week ago. Romney has dropped 8 points. Paul and Santorum have pretty much remained in place. Their favorability numbers show similar trendlines. Gingrich’s has increased 8 points from +15 (51/36) to +23 (57/34). Meanwhile Romney’s has declined 13 points from +44 (68/24) to +31 (61/30).
An InsiderAdvantage poll for NewsMax found Gingrich with an even large lead.
Gingrich: 34 percent
Romney: 26 percent
Ron Paul: 13 percent
Rick Santorum: 11 percent
Other: 2 percent
No opinion: 14 percent
This is a remarkable reversal of fortune. Only a week ago some polls had Mitt Romney leading in Florida by over 20 points. To blow such a huge lead so quickly has to shake any candidate and campaign.
While this primary has shown us that Republican voters’ opinions can turn on a dime with this set of choices, it is going to be very hard for Romney to turn things around in Florida. A significant share of the voting, either by absentee ballot or early voting, is already underway.
At this point Romney’s best hope is to turn the contest around in February, when there are few debates and the primary schedule includes states presumably more favorable to Romney.



38 Comments
Attacking the press (such as it is) is a winner with the rubes.
Comedy you can believe in.
I think it’s telling that no Floridian with fingers on the levers of voting-machine power has endorsed a candidate. It appears they’ve learned the lessons Jeb Bush and Katharine Harris taught GOP operatives in 2000: don’t let the sheeple see you manipulate the vote totals behind the curtain.
Does anyone think we’ll see an honest count in Florida in a week?
In Florida??
It seems like GOP poll respondents are no more or less fickle than they have been all year; the only thing that’s changed is that they have actual polling places at which to register their opinions, not just with phone-pollsters who call at dinnertime.
Whatever happened to her, anyway? She reveled in her 15 minutes, and dropped right off the radar, apparently.
Her disappearance gives one hope for the views of the American people…they ‘got it’
Perhaps she is hiking the Appalachian Trail.
Ron Paul will do very well, he’s the only candidate who resembles gefilte fish.
I still think it likely that Gingrich will flame out. The GOP establishment will not want a reactionary bomb-thrower running for President.
Gingrich The Newt (Very Funny Song)
http://freewayblogger.blogspot.com/2012/01/gingrich-newt.html
If elected, Newt will do what he’s told. Same with Obama, Mitt, any of them.
On behalf of the gefilte fish I remember, shame on you. ;-)
All this hyper coverage of the traveling circus.
So now the dog faced boy is leading the bearded lady, but look out for the man with alligator skin who is closing fast.
Please, someone call me when they get a serious, credible candidate.
Which means I’m not expecting any calls this election cycle.
I like the fact that Gingrich is ahead. It means that the Republican Party is morphing into its throwback base.
It reminds me of the episode of Star Trek, where Captain Kirk is split into two personalities.
The Gingrich-style wing should be laid bare, full bore. The 60-somethings who are still fighting the Culture Wars of the last century can support him, and everyone else can support the Democrats.
I know some posters here don’t care for the contemporary Democrats, either. But they are better than the Republicans.
LOLOLOLOLOLOL HIGHLY RECOMMENDED. Love all your work, btw.
It’s only the difference between the fast track to hell and the slow track to hell. Maybe the only way to avoid getting to hell requires getting off of BOTH tracks.
No surprise here, given the choice between a technocrat, and an autocrat, the hicks will always go for the autocrat.
The problem we have is an enormous level of irritation in the hick population that isn’t well understood by folks as well-informed as FDL readers.
The hicks, contrary to all sound-logic, are convinced of that Rush Limbaugh’s bigoted rantings are true.
They have no inclination to understand the deeper reality, that Rush has become rich by helping to drive the wedge that divides our people and thus enables the continued looting of our collective wealth by powerful oligarchs.
The oligarchs do the looting, they pay Rush to convince the hicks that the problem is poor, undeserving brown people, and then we sit back and loudly proclaim that we can’t understand how, at this late point in the game, anybody is still fooled by the lies.
We forget that we, all of us, were convinced by candidate Obama, that things were going to fundamentally change if we would only vote him into the WH.
If we were fooled so completely in the space of one election cycle, how is it that we don’t understand the impact of twenty years of Rush?
Oh, shit, that’s depressing. But that don’t make it wrong.
“Perhaps she is hiking the Appalachian Trail.”
That is excellent waggery. :o)
Back to the thread:
If Gingrich can win in Florida, he will be “for real” as they say…and there will be rivers of political republican blood flowing in the streets.
Works for me. :o)
The GOP moderates have been whoring around with their crazies for a long time. Only fair that they get to look at some genital lesions, now. :o)
“…but they are better than the republicans.”
That strategy worked SO well in the mid-terms.
Please speak for yourself. I had him pegged as the corporatist swine that he is from day one. Then he proved me correct with his FISA vote before the election.
Actually, I told my right-wing father that I suspected Obama was a phony prior to the election.
So we can both give ourselves a big pat on the back?
No, the point stands, we’re up against twenty years of Rush-style propaganda, and a few smart, well-informed people can’t offset the weight of that inflamed ignorance.
And so Newt winning in FL makes sense.
The 2010 midterms, which, like all the historical midterms, 20% of the voting age population doesn’t show up.
“It reminds me of the episode of Star Trek, where Captain Kirk is split into two personalities.”
Like Candidate Obama versus President Obama?
Pineywoods,
I’ve started to wonder why the 1% hate/fear Newt so much. Perhaps he can’t be counted on to do what he’s told. If FauxNews hates him, is there something to like? Newt’s an extraordinarily…grandiose….whatever…He fancys himself as a T.R. type. As an “historian”, he’ll want to be a great president….Suppose he’ll need a war for that.
In 2010 Democrats suffered the biggest nationwide sweep since 1974 post-Watergate Republicans. Trying to paint 2010 as just another midterm is blatantly false:
“The Republican Party gained 63 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, recapturing the majority, and making it the largest seat change since 1948 and the largest for any midterm election since the 1938 midterm elections. The Republicans gained six seats in the U.S. Senate, expanding its minority, and also gained 680 seats in state legislative races,to break the previous majority record of 628 set by Democrats in the post-Watergate elections of 1974.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_elections,_2010
Actually Nate Silver talked about this recently about the illusion of democracy with Mitt Romney being the choice of TPTB while Newt is upseting the applecart. I don’t like Newt, but it looks like instead of just having the veneer of democracy, there is actually some real democracy going on.
Billy: We can’t even get a cheap motel room. Everbody’s scared.
George: Oh they’re not scared of you. They’re scared of what you represent. And that’s freedom.
Billy: That don’t make ‘em running scared.
George: No. It makes ‘em dangerous.
That’s a possibility. Wandering for Jeebus. From her wiki.
Funny you should mention Watergate. It may be worth revisiting. Did we get the whole story or just get rid of Nixon? How did the plumbers get arrested by day shift detectives, what were they looking for, and just what was deleted from those 18 1/2 mins. of tape. Did Larry O’Brien ever talk to anyone who’s still alive?
I think Bill Clinton should thank Newt for convincing the majority of Republicans that they do not know what – the meaning of the is – either!
Daaamn, Spanish; you kicked his ass so hard he’ll have to take off his shirt to shit. :o)
Spot ON!
The repubs made the mid-terms ALL about Barack Obama, and it will be even easier for them to do it, this time around, no matter who they nominate.
We’re all enjoying watching the GOP hatchet-fight, and that’s fine, but once they sort it out, going after Obama will be like falling off a log. I also happen to feel that the political climate by mid-summer won’t look anything like it does now, almost certainly to the detriment of Obama. We’ll see…
This is like living in a horror movie: “It’s alive, professor, it’s ALIVE! (Demonic laughter here).
In an odd sort of way, though, Gingrich is almost ideally representative of the U.S. power structure: reactionary, amoral, racist, unscrupled, demagogic, simplistic, nativistic, destructive and indifferent to the well-being of the middle class, working class and poor. No one who knows him likes him, of course, but that won’t bother the rubes who flock to his banner.
Well, Wombat, we’ll know a bit more about banner-flocking after Florida. If he wins there, then the division between the flat-earthers and the “moderates” in the GOP will turn into a political bloodbath, and no bullshit about it. It’ll be fun to watch the endorsement contest, to see where the party “leaders” go.
No butter on my popcorn, please. :o)
The lesser of two evils is still evil. There are no Republicans or Democrats, only Corporate Tools. The problem with electing someone with a “D” next to his/her name is that there is not even token opposition to the implementation of increasingly disastrous foreign and domestic policies.
That’s because they have come to realize that quote “if voting made a difference, it would be illegal” (not verbatim, but close enough).
;-) All I know for sure is, someone stole my fucking motorcycle!
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It is a cute song — here’s another way people can access it:
http://mysp.ac/wbElOS