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One week ago Mitt Romney was riding high. He had a 23 point lead in the Gallup national polling, held a big lead in South Carolina and was on track to quickly wrapping up the nomination. A lot has changed in just seven days. Romney’s national lead has dropped to just 10 points, still large but moving in the wrong direction quickly. From Gallup:
In addition to a huge national swing, there has been an equally large swing in South Carolina. Romney went from about a ten point lead in South Carolina to now trailing Newt Gingrich by a few points. Instead of Romney wrapping up the race quickly, looks like it will drag on for at least a few more weeks.
This GOP primary has been a great example of that fact that debate performances matter. It was a few awful debate performances that helped kill Rick Perry’s campaign. It was some strong debate performances that gave Gingrich his initial surge late last year back when Gingrich’s support was in the single digits. Finally, this recent sharp drop for Romney coincides with his poor debate performance Monday, where Romney was awkwardly stumped over questions about his tax returns.
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It’s incredible that Romney, with the full backing of the formidable Republican establishment, could be faltering so badly. The designated presidential candidates of the Republican party leadership NEVER lose the nomination but Romney very well may do so. Even the totally lackluster George W. Bush, facing a major challenge from McCain in 2000, was able to eventually pull out a win. (McCain was actually a fairly good and forceful candidate then, not at all the pathetic sell-out he became in 2008). I can’t stomach watching the Republican debates, but there is something about Romney that must be absolutely loathsome to his audience. It can’t just be a matter of his Mormon faith or his (relative) moderation on the issues. Republican regulars are trained to “fall in line.” That they have not done so this year speaks volumes about Romney’s ability to win in November.
I’m amazed at Mitten’s ability to overcome his stigmata with the Republican base – he’s a American job destroying, tax dodging offshore bank account, Wall St “earned income” mega rich guy.
Not exactly the original Tea Party’s cup of tea.
I continue to be surprised that the Republicans are not running Ron Paul. But, ultimately, the best way to figure out who will be the nominee is to see who Fox News wants. The base is programmed to do what it’s told.
Look at Paul’s line in the graph. He stays within five points during that whole time. That’s a political flat line. He has a hard deck that he’ll never go below but he’s also got this adamant ceiling that he’ll never break through. Slow and steady may win the race but it rarely wins an election.
Time to start a Draft Palin movement.
After all, McGeezer says that picking her as VP was the best decision he ever made.
With the only (currently) electable republican trending down (check back tonight) the chance of 4 more years of having a nominal democrat protect the corporate status quo, and of he and “liberal” democrats having to take responsibility for the fallout from that, is looking better all the time.
The Media is talking up Newt’s swing up in the polls because of his great debate performance. I have no doubts that Newt’s appeals to Hate helped him in South Carolina however I think Mitt’s tax return is the big issue. Its hard to ignore that Mitt pays less than many people do in taxes around tax time.
As long as these moral midgets can continue to con the rubes it should make for some real entertainment. The longer this goes on the more likely the american voter wakes up and realizes the buggering they’ve been taking.
“Time to start a Draft Paliln movement.”
Hey Allan. Chaos in the Grand Old Party, and it could happen. :o)
America knows Willard and Grinch are the quintessential corporate aristocrats, Jefferson feared. Both have no problem throwing “humans” under the bus, to advance business/political interests. Both represents wealth “extraction,” opposed to wealth creation. A vote for Willard or the Grinch is like taking a hammer’s, claw end first and driving the it into one’s own temple. A losing proposition!
“It’s incredible that Romney, with the full backing of the formidable republican establishment, could be faltering so badly.”
Well, the “moderate” republicans have been making political hay by climbing into bed with the snake-handling bible-zombies, for a long time. No more leaving a $5 dollar bill on the dresser; now the whole tab may be coming due. :o)
Thats what having more money to buy tv ads can buy you but don’t forget Mitt has very weak support. Heck the entire GOP even with Ron Paul brining in new people are not exactly packing people in to their primaries despite record high unemployment.
This suggests the GOP message is weak and all the GOP candidates lack the Evita Peron factor of popular appeal to exploit a crisis.
Sarah and Michelle where the GOP’s Evita’s but they are gone now and even when they were around they hurt themselves with their stupid comments as much as they did with their hateful comments.
The GOP needed another Reagan they know they need another Reagan but in the age of the internet compulsive liars like Reagan, Sarah, Newt etc can’t survive the instant fact check of the Lefty blogs and that we can spread the fact they are lying sans corporate media.
I think the bad economy has made GOP voters extra crazy they don’t want to settle for a corporate candidate they want change violent change.
But they also want someone who will promise them jobs and only the Tea Baggers are believing that tax cuts will create jobs that is why the GOP primary turnout is so weak when given the unemployment numbers they should be record turnout.
Charles P. Pierce, who blogs politics at Esquire, agrees with you: http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/newt-gingrich-south-carolina-headquarters-6642181
Newt’s gender politics make him mainstream among South Carolina Republican men.
Namely, he thinks of women as disposable sperm receptacles.
Are the PTB disorganized, then?
The base doesn’t want someone whose ideas on job creation will triumph because they are superior to the president’s. They want somebody who can beat him bloody, vicariously, on their behalf, somebody who can “put him in his place.” They want someone who will kill the administration just for the sheer fun of watching it die.
http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/newt-gingrich-south-carolina-headquarters-6642181
This sums up Newt’s support perfect and explains why Newt suddenly has a chance. Ron and Rick are racist but they are not as loud or as much as a fighter as Newt.
“That’s what having more money to buy tv ads can buy you.”
Lies and misrepresentation?
The segment on democracynow yesterday on the overt racism among Rs was stunning.
So the “lefty” blogs are, by eliminating the charismatic R candidates, effectively ensuring O’s re-election?
Great. Just…great. Kill me now.
To quote St. Ronnie, “Facts are stupid things”.
Yes although Mitt needs to buy exciting lies like Newt does. Still a constant tv presence I am sure is convincing many that Mitt is the one just based on pure repetition of Mitt’s message and face on tv.
I think just repeating something constantly can brainwash people especially if they don’t know the facts.
Newt is winning because he says what they already want to believe so he has an edge in the brain washing dept even though he can’t match Mitt in tv ad buys.
Going to check it out
Although I will not be voting for Obama again, I do think that any Dem is minimally better than any R – just a tiny bit, to be sure.
Ask eCHAN we are also destroying Obama very well better than the GOP will because we point out that Obama can create jobs. That instead of cutting SS and Medicare we can tax the rich more and cut military spending.
Once this blog was very pro Obama now the Obama people call us firebaggers but I think we are forming a third party and or a revolution here.
We win because the Obama/GOP fails to provide what people need jobs, homes, etc. We win because we argue they can do it but don’t. We expect to win because we think Obama/GOP’s policies will make the economy worse not better.
Charismatic Rs?
No doubt…our local paper also featured in a whole column his lack of authenticity….apparently he cannot help it or escape it. Comparing him to Dukakis…Must be something visceral that comes across in person/on the stump, of course, plus the tax confusion.
http://www.democracynow.org/2012/1/20/ahead_of_south_carolina_primary_gop
Nobody thinks Newt wants to Help African Americans everyone in South Carolina knows food stamps are GOP code for Black People dependent on government. Newt is pushing the racist button.
It should be noted that South Carolina gets more money from the Feds than they pay in taxes. With the GOP talking about cutting federal spending to give the rich tax cuts well if the GOP wins the Presidency I plan to laugh as South Carolina sees its cash dry up
http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/08/americas-fiscal-union
I am constantly surprised at how much money can do to help a rather uninspiring person with little social skills a flip flop character and judging from his policy ideas not much of an intellect wealth and power.
;) Tell us what you really think…I agree…it is surprising that he seems to have so little going for him, and that is not at all about his religion.
I doubt that voters are pleased that Mitt has been off-shoring his money to avoid taxes – also, too.
http://www.democracynow.org/2012/1/20/ahead_of_south_carolina_primary_gop
By more people Newt means Black People. I will cut their benefits and give you White People a tax cut this will create jobs to help Balck people. I will pay for the tax cut by cutting government spending. What Newt does not say is South Carolina gets more money than they pay the Feds in taxes.
The Racists only hear what they want to hear they don’t hear the part where Newt says he will take their money. They assume Newt will give them a tax cut but most of them are not rich. As S Carolina gets less money the state will raise taxes on everyone to make up for the loss in federal dollars.
Chances are they won’t tax the rich so by voting for Newt S Carolina racists just voted themselves a tax increase unless they happen to be rich.
This is a simple logical conclusion its not that hard to reach but when you want to believe something your blind to everything else.
Looking for a decisive (10+ point) Gingrich victory here.
Will Romney break 25%? Even the MSM might notice if he doesn’t.
Another thing to watch is Santorum’s performance. His intrinsic support is weak, always was, and a big victory for Gingrich will anoint Newt as the not-Romney. For reals this time. Santorum was basically broke after Iowa, got a cash infusion for a week until NH. He has to be running on fumes again, with FL coming up. If he finishes fourth with under 10%, I expect he will drop out and endorse Gingrich.
Gingrich may be able to ride a big victory in SC to a narrow victory in FL, which is winner-take-all for 50 delegates. If he pulls both of those off, he will be sitting on twice the delegates Romney has.
And he will have most of February to pull in contributions to compete on Super Tuesday.
I’m still not sure Gingrich can raise enough money, and will be willing to spend enough money (rather than hoard it to roll into a personal PAC) to go all the way.
One thing is becoming abundantly clear – nobody likes Romney. Not even Republicans.
That just means that all the other decisions McCain has made were even worse…
http://www.democracynow.org/2012/1/20/ahead_of_south_carolina_primary_gop
Newt was sweeping the racism it seems did none of the other GOPers match his racism in the debate?
Mitt is the most empty suit I’ve ever seen. It’s as if they built him in a factory somewhere and sent him out to run for prez. All he has is his money, a lovely wife, lots of sons – and a dog.
Matt Taibbi on the Charleston debate:
Must be really powerful to have put Newt in this lead position, assuming he is. My mind cannot contemplate the kind of renewal this run has been for Newt….not only the wife stories, but the reality of his apparently disastrous personality, starting with mean and impulsive. The thought of watching him thru a Pres. race is way far beyond me.
They are all soulless and calculating it must be some other quality we are missing.
Imagine paying 15% taxes. Any doubt we live in a plutocracy, of the rich, for the rich and by the rich. And they want our sons and daughters to go fight for them too.
The NYT has Newt at 39% with a high of 49% and Mittens with 29% and a high of 39%, Everyone else is an also ran.
Last roundup for 90s politics. The demographic for Republican primary voters is older, so they are still on board with it. It will sink, badly, in the general.
OWS and, belatedly, the Obama campaign, are framing this election to be about income inequality and repairing the budget by taxing the wealthy. One could not imagine a worse nominee than Willard.
So, Richie Rich or the irrelevant 90s bomb-thrower?
Obama is the luckiest politician in human history.
Obama is lucky. I believe the Independent voters will not vote R no matter if it’s Mitt or Newt. Mitt won’t play across the country because he comes across about as well as a frozen cod and I don’t think most voters outside the south will buy Newt’s brand of racism. So it’s Obama. Sigh.
After watching Mittens on hi tax returns – you get the idea that there must be some pretty bad stuff in those records. He was looking like he got cought big time up there on stage – really looking cornered.
I heard some commentary, maybe NPR, saying he couldn’t have handled it any worse and should have been prepared/have known it’s a topic that coming.
absolutely! I saw that also on PBS actually 2 different shows. I didn’t/ couldn’t watch the full debate (I did the early ones but it got old) and then heard about the tax response and went and watched it. The man acted very guilty – to me very obviously guilty.
And yes – didn’t they think this was going to come out? I’m surprised RP isn’t going after him for it
Not so fast. Paul is talking about military reductions in a state that fired the first shot at our flag in the War Betweens The States. It would be the first state to do so if it had a chance to, today. Crazy is normal in S. Carolina, so to speak, and those Confederate gangbangers loves them some military spending! Just think of the lost revenue and, it being a donee state and all, couldn’t stand to become a bigger ward of the doner states, could it? Paul will do alright and do better when he moves to more sane environs. ” With a Bible in one hand and a revolver in the other, S. Carolina will shed God’s grace on we, the people! ” That’s a hell of a state motto, afterall!
I think SC woke up to the fact Mitts is basically a carpet bagging Yankee
Book Salon up with Sylvia Longmire’s Cartel: The Coming Invasion of Mexico’s Drug Wars hosted by Sam Quinones
It’s not the dogs fault his master is a moron. Mitt has the personality of a rock. Then he dresses down to try to pass as human. Mitt didn’t earn his wealth, he stole it from those who worked for it. Would be nice to see him crash and burn.
“Obama is the luckiest politician in history”
Casey Stengel used to say”I would rather be lucky than good any day”
Romney has turned into Gordon fucking Gekko and Gingrich is a truly loathsome character with a 60% negative rating.
The longer this goes on the better it is for libertarians and progressives.
The Gary Johnson third party scenario will morph into a fourth and fifth party free for all when folk realize that Obama is going to win and their candidacy will not be a “spoiler” candidacy.
I’m thinking Trump/Bloomberg etc.
The GOP needs a serious shake up: Santorum seems to be the only GOP candidate to recognize that in a democracy, you cannot campaign on a platform of austerity and still win.
Romney, Gingrich, and Paul are all about shrinking the safety net, which is really the safety net for liberal capitalism to prevent it morphing into totalitarianism, be it fascism or communism. Even before we had Big Government, the state was constantly handing out free land to people, which was essentially a small business grant.
Our current economic travails are more about our impending doom than immediate palpable doom; when the day comes where people will not have access to basic commodities, it will be a whole new epoch in history.