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After a disappointing third place finish in New Hampshire, Jon Huntsman has decided to drop out of the race and endorse Mitt Romney. Huntsman will be endorsing Romney at an 11 a.m. event in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. While the endorsement is a positive for Romney, the actually impact should be very small.
To begin with, endorsements don’t tend to change many voters’ minds in top ticket races. Huntsman also has almost no base of support that he could sway, which is why he is dropping out. The Real Clear Politics average of South Carolina polls had Huntsman at just 5.3 percent. Gallup’s national track poll had Huntsman at only 3 percent. Even if a large plurality of Huntsman’s meager vote now decides to back Romney, the effect at most would lift Romney only one or two percent over his rivals.
Perhaps more important for Romney is the impact this endorsement will have in the media. Romney holds a narrow lead in South Carolina with just five days until the vote takes place. Every one of these precious final days that the media spends time talking about good news for Romney means the media has less time to talk about attacks from, or good news about, one of his main rivals.
Huntsman’s endorsement will probably not change many votes, but it does help to promote the image that Romney is now inevitable, which is exactly the narrative the Romney campaign wants right now.
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Huntsman is an establishment candidate. Although very conservative, he comes from the far left of the current party but would never go against the vital interests of his party’s leadership. He is sort of a Republican Bernie Sanders or Dennis Kucinich, transposed many octaves to the right of the keyboard. His withdrawal at this point is doubtless intended to help the Republican establishment, which has designated Romney the candidate but is in real hot water with the Republican version of a people’s revolt. The leadership expects that virtually all Huntsman votes will go to Romney.
Right in there with death and taxes. Hard to decide which is worst.
IMO, it won’t make any difference. In fact, if Romney or Newt wins the GOP primaries, it will make little difference in policy.
Mitt is going to win ok I can agree with that but Ron’s people and the Fundies won’t show on election day for him and Mitt can only choose one Ron or a Fundy for VP.
The Fundies have more people than Ron but the GOP is used to taking Fundies for granted Ron brings in new voters the GOP needs desperately.
I am not sure who will get the VP nod.
A candidate is hardly “inevitable” if he can’t break 30%. Every candidate that drops out concentrates the not-Romney vote.
When does the “Mitt the Ripper” ad start running? That will probably have a bigger impact than Huntsman dropping out.
Actually, the choices I offered were death, taxes, and Romney. Romney makes the other two appear desirable.
The “new voters” aren’t as much about the GOP as they are about anti-war. Paul is the only candidate who gives anti-war activists a voice.
Th fact that the “dropper outter” is NOT Newt or one of the Ricks means:
1. The bulk of the “not-romney” vote is really still split three ways.
2. The pro-mormon forces are now united behind the Mittster
P.S. Marco Rubio will be the VP. He’s acceptable to the tea party, hispanic and from the south.
Republican Christers will not turn out for Romney but they will be there anyway in opposition to Zero. The Paul people will support the Libertarian ticket.
Significantly, this must be harrowing for evangelicals and social conservatives and the “Tea Party” to know that they aren’t even a decisive force in their own party!
Perhaps that will shock them into getting Santorum and Perry to drop out and endorse Gingrich, who, while not a social conservative, fits the Limbaugh prototype of the “asshole conservative” much more than the Massachusetts Liberal Romney.
Such rebellions are few and far between in the party of the .1%, who have bossed this election to Romney in the “money” primary, despite Romney being no more inherently popular than clone-Huntsman. The power of money over ideas and people couldn’t be more telling than in Romney’s campaign.
The Ron Paul folks will start to stew in their own juices when the remaining 47 states don’t get significant media coverage for their “ideas”. When they realize that their beloved Ron Paul is no longer involved in electoral politics, I predict a sudden turn to Gary Johnson merely to spite the arrogant GOP and teach them that they cannot win without them.
Doubtless Romney will win the nomination. Unlike in other presidential cycles, however, vast numbers of conservative Republicans will not fall in line this time. They always felt that Romney was not one of them (religious prejudice doubtless playing a big role). Romney could have ultimately mended fences, except that the damage from Gingrich’s Bain Capital attack in this time of economic distress is just too great. Also not to be discounted are the revelations of his canine abuse, a visceral issue with many people, and indicative of the man’s lack of empathy.
Looks like Obama lucked out again.
I’ve been saying all along that Huntsman has not been running in the 2012 race but in the 2016 or 2020 one. His endorsement of Romney isn’t of importance about how it affects Romney’s chances. It’s importance is how it establishes Huntsman as a party loyalist committed to the establishment. He always was going to drop out and endorse Romney, the only question was when. He needed to gain some credibility in race. Looks like 3rd place in New Hampshire was it.
I also suspect that Colbert polling better than him was another factor in the timing. It wouldn’t help his future cred as the next serious, establishment candidate if a comic running a satirical campaign in one state did better than him.
The way things are going, Obama will hire Mitt Romney to be his economic advisor once the Election is over.
Everywhere you look……Wall Street…..
Ron Paul 2012 folks
Irony. Huntsman has flip-flopped on his opinion of the candidate that he condemned as a master flip-flopper.