At long last! Today is finally the date of the New Hampshire primary. People all over the state are currently going to the polls to vote on who they want to be the Republican Party’s presidential nominee. Here is a look at the current state of the race.
The final set of polls in New Hampshire all agree that Mitt Romney has a huge double digit lead over the rest of the field. The last day of the Suffolk University tracking poll has Romney well ahead, Ron Paul in second and Huntsman ending close behind.
Mitt Romney ……………………………. 37%
Ron Paul ………………………………… 18%
Jon Huntsman …………………………. 16%
Rick Santorum …………………………. 11%
Newt Gingrich ………………………….. 9%
Rick Perry ………………………………. 1%
Buddy Roemer …………………………. 1%
Fred Karger ……………………………… 0%
Undecided (DO NOT READ) ………….. 7%
The WMUR poll (PDF) has Romney doing better and Huntsman only tied for third with a stalled out Santorum.
Mitt Romney………….. 41%
Ron Paul………………. 17%
Jon Huntsman………… 11%
Rick Santorum………… 11%
Newt Gingrich…………. 8%
Rick Perry……………… 1%
Buddy Roemer……….. 1%
Someone else…………. 1%
Don’t Know…………… 8%
The Final PPP poll of the race mostly agrees with Suffolk. It also has Huntsman almost tied for second with Paul.
Mitt Romney……………………………. 35%
Ron Paul ……………………………….. 18%
Jon Huntsman…………………………. 16%
Newt Gingrich ………………………….. 12%
Rick Santorum……………………………. 11%
Buddy Roemer…………………………… 3%
Rick Perry ………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ………………… 4%
Probably the two big unknowns going into the night will be:
- How large will Romney’s lead be? Will his “I like being able to fire people” gaffe reinforce the negative Bain narrative to reduce his margin of victory enough to make him look vulnerable in South Carolina?
- Who will take second? Ron Paul has been second in almost all the polling but only by a very small margin. Now there is some indication Huntsman is getting a small amount of late traction. Huntsman’s campaign has focused almost exclusively on New Hampshire. I wouldn’t be surprised if that pays off here by him slightly exceeding expectations.
Please leave your predictions for the night in the comment section.



58 Comments
The stupidest thing I’ve read on NH was waking up this morning to reports that in midnight voting X got 8 votes, Y got 4 and Z got 3.
Well, maybe that’s better than reading about glitz.
I predict the sun will rise tomorrow, in the east.
Nothing personal Jon but I am fucking sick to death of horse race bullshit. They all suck hind tit and that’s being generous. Beyond that who gives a shit. Sorry
For all the noise they make it is interesting that all the value guys, Santorum, Newticle and Perry added together barely make it to 20%.
You might find it modestly interesting why all the focus on elections is the horse race. It is bc humans are alpha male societies and the only thing that matters is getting to the top of the mountain, then fending off all challengers when you get there. Elections have nothing to do with policies, which are of exceedingly marginal help in the race to the top.
“value guys” any relation to “value meals?”
You know, the “you get what you pay for” elaborately decorated, un-satisfying, sometimes nausiating, non-nutritional bag ‘o crap?
Jon, I, for one, am enjoying the “circus” and appreciate your reporting.
We here in Texas are so thrilled to see Perry at 1%, below “Not sure” and polling equally with “Somebody Else”. We knew he was capable, but weren’t sure he would deliver.
Newt’s “slide” is also poetic justice. I’m glad that the folks in NH see him for what he is, a dastardly, despicable low-life.
Where ya’ been, dude? Well put.
HUntsman may be at 16 in NH but he’s at 1% in SC.
I think Huntsman will beat Paul by a little bit and Romney’s support will after gaffe will be within the margin of error of his pre-gaffe support.
I think this will be the end of Perry.
And if the teabagggers want to beat Mitt, they’d better select a candidate and get everybody else to drop out and endorse that person. I don’t think it will be enough, but it’s their only chance.
So it looks like the general is going to be Mitt vs Mitt…er, Barry vs Barry…er, um, could we have a program? Can’t tell the players apart without a program.
Boxturtle (Between the two of them, the decision almost comes down to “Who’s the better dresser?”)
I can only pop in and out. Sorry to be a frequent drive-by-er. It’s the nature of my job.
You say that as though you think it’s a disadvantage in the race for the GOP nomination.
Boxturtle (I think it’s required before they’ll let you get in the clown car)
I often get thoroughly disgusted with the Kabuki Show that’s entitled Republican Primary.
OTOH, it’s gonna happen, just like the sun rising in the east tomorrow.
What happened vis Newticle’s truth-telling about Mittens’ jobs destruction whilst Willard “worked” for BANE Capital (mis-spelling is intentional)?? Found it mildly inneresting that Newticles dared go against Sainted Zombie Reagan’s dictat that RePukes never ever knife each other in the back.
BT is right. My $20 goes:
Romney….39%
Not-Romney JH…17
Not-Romney RP…16
Not-Romney RS…11
Not-Romney/jerk Newt…9
Future former TX governor and self-inflicted wound survivor…1
heh… don’t wish to put words in anyone’s mouth/keyboard, but I believe that Kris from TX would say: but but but Mittens has the much better hair do! That’s how ya tells ‘em apart!
SC is still waiting for Jeff Davis to announce he’s running.
“I like being able to fire people” merely a gaffe? When a politician speaks honestly and from the heart why not give him/her credit for being forthright? We need to encourage this.
I’m sorry if I came across that way. :-)
Now if we only get Osterity to say, “I suck, big time.”
lol
It was inevitable that Romney would start to take some AAA hits. I just don;t think the anti-Romney artillery emplacements, fragmented as they are, can throw up enough flak to being down his plane.
I think I’d rather have O say: “I really am a Republican and I loathe destest and despise the commoners.”
But perhaps we should start a contest for what sentence we would most like O to truthfully utter…
Eh? I think Romney has been the annointed one from the beginning.
I just found it very interesting that Gingrich, you know, told the truth about Romney. That was pretty much verboten by Ray-gun.
“I promised you ‘change’, but I may have mispoken.”
Does anyone think that the $5million given to Newt by Adelson will help Newt in SC? That’s a lot of ads.
The fact is that there were any number or republiucan candidates that COULD have beaten Romney but they chose not to run. Mitch Daniels,IMO for sure, and quite possibly, the NJ fat boy. If HUntsman had gotten more money and an earlier start, perhaps.
Depends on who can promote the most bigotry. One dog whistle ad = 10 regular bash ads
Huntsman will never be accepted by the current Regressive Party.
Excellent point. I think it could easily cost Romney 2-3% points but I don’t think it will change the “winner”.
OTOH, it’s SOUTH CAROLINA. There, if it’s on the TEEVEE it MUST be true. Gingrich got no legs north of the Mason-Dixon line or in any barber shop with a median IQ >97
Not only are you an excellent writer/editorialist, but you are damn fine veterenarian/politcial analyst.
Agreed. He prolly woulda needed to “TWEAK” some of his positions to get the nomination.
Chose not to run? Or TOLD not to run?
I think there was a deliberate choice by the PTB that Romney would be annointed this year. My tea leaves tell me it’s bc Romney and Obama are indistinguishable, so it doesn’t matter which one appears to “win.” The outcome – either/or – is the same. JHMO, of course.
Sung in my best Bryan Adams wail:
Straight from the heart
Tell you, you can pack up your cart
It’s time for you to go
I know it really blows
But I’m aiming straight for your pension fund
Spot on.
That may be, but Mitt still prevails in the swarmy factor….He just can’t help it, as Ann Richards would say.
They all creep me out. That said, all politicians creep me out.
;) I do not disagree…but this has been a stunningly creepy bunch, it seems to me. I guess we have just become more aware of stolen elections.
I think Romney would get the nomination no matter what. Mainly because his personality is the “cleanest” of all of them. Theres no way that “NJ fat boy” would have beat him. He has one of the worst personalities around. The sad thing of course is that the general is going to be about 2 oligarchs trying to beat each other on how much more effeciently they can destroy this country for the serfs then the other. I personally somewhat hope Romney wins because i cant stand Obama. Plus maybe MAYBE if theres an ACTUAL repub as president the waste of space that call themselves the dems might actually at least do some part of there job.
Shit, they didn’t do it under Shrub, why would they start now? They’ve all drunk the neoliberal Kool-Aid and there’s no going back from that. Money’s just as addictive as heroin.
That much pessimism gives me a headache….Is the outlook in your view the necessity of serious FDR depression to make any difference? Whoever would’ve thought it could get worse than W & Dick?
I’ve given up on the idea of saying it’s not going to get any worse. Each and everytime I have thought or said that the morons in DC have bent over backwards to prove me wrong.
So now I’ve learned to embrace the suck.
It sounds depressing but it in a small way is freeing and WAY better for my health.
The shiny object known as “the war on terror” kept people’s eyes off of the shenanigans in the financial sector, which allowed the sector to dig itself such a deep hole a crash has to come, sooner or later. The only reason the banksters are afraid of the situation now is that they personally stand to lose a ton of money. They couldn’t care less about the “investors.” If they were perfectly happy to sell them shit when they, the banksters, knew it was shit…
That’s a great mental health topic. I really do not know what to think anymore….I did mean that’s was what I had thought during W…that it couldn’t have gotten worse.
Now I know better….But with characters like Perry, Newt, et al….why no telling what’s out there. Let alone all the banksters O keeps around himself…I do not yet feel the freedom you talk about…more like watching a car wreck.
Yep. More horror to follow I think. Eric Cantor says that he approves of Obama’s new Chief of Staff. aaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrggggg
The War on Terror, along with the Patriot Act, who would’ve thought we could have been so misled and gone willingly. The gifts that keep on giving, for sure.
Like we care what Cantor thinks….huh? Thanks
The fifth stage of grief.
The sixth stage, which I’m almost at, is to laugh at how absolutely absurd the U.S. political system has become.
But good news…Buchn. indefinitely suspended….Yep, couldn’t happen to a …..fellow
Not that I care what that dirtbag thinks, BUT, it’s worth a look into Lew’s background……..
He will soon show up on Fox to shine his credentials as a bigot.
I care what Cantor thinks because if he approves, this new guy cannot be good news for us.
Or a competitor for Rush….but easier to ignore, I think….
And also good to know that there are some lines not to cross…such as that Y0-Mama idiot from KS showed earlier in the week…Obviously some of these “brains” do not get the signal NOT to go there.
I was being sarcastic. :-)
My name is KrisAinTX, and I approve this message.
heh… figgered ya wouldn’t mind.
Yep, just like they chose Dole in ’96. And, in Dole’s case, it was because the PTB wanted Clinton to be re-elected.
That was after Romney already did it first to Gingrich.