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Directly after his surprisingly strong showing in the Iowa caucus Rick Santorum experienced a significant and immediate bump in support in New Hampshire. However, it now appears that was just a one time jump in support for Santorum instead of part of a growing trend.
Before the Iowa caucus Santorum’s support was only in the low single digits according to most polls; immediately after Iowa he jumped up to around 10 percent. But since then Santorum hasn’t managed to gain any additional support.
For example the WMUR (PDF) poll had Santorum at just 4 percent in the poll from January 2-3rd right before the caucus. That went to 11 percent in the polling done between Jan 4-5th, but his support remains stuck at 11 percent in their polling from Jan 5-8th.
This is similar to what we see in the Suffolk University tracking polling. Santorum was at 5 percent in their poll released January 3rd. He shot up to 11 percent on Jan 6th, the first day of entirely post-Iowa polling. But in their poll released yesterday Santorum dropped back to just 8 percent.
Santorum’s strong showing in the Iowa caucus produced a significant boost for his campaign, immediately doubling his level of support in New Hampshire, but that rise seems to have stopped. So the problem for Santorum is simply that he was starting from too deep of a deficit in New Hamshire to make it up.
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Will he use ‘withdrawal’?
Rick will do better in South Carolina and the southern states on Super Tuesday Mitt being a Mormon will have problems its Newt who is his main worry there. How is Newt doing in those states and how is rick doing?
The final polls suggest that Romney, Paul and Huntsman will be the top 3.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-1581.html
Awwwww, we barely had time to play with Santorum and he’s gone.
I’m guessing Newt has to make his last stand in SC. He’s running in 3rd behind Santorum. Paul better head on down to SC if he wants to make a respectable showing.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-1590.html
When Frothy’s bubble bursts, it’s going to be messy.
Rick is on top of Newt. Romney is beating both of them though. Oddly enough South Carolinians seem to take their responsibility of always picking the Presidential candidate more seriously then their aversion to mormons I guess.
I posted NH and SC polls in post 3
If Mitt wins can he avoid having a bible nut on the ticket as VP maybe not Rick or Newt but somebody? How many voters will that lose MItt?
How many Ron voters won’t vote GOP without Ron as VP or at least promised a powerful job in the new administration?
We might see a first this election Fundy voters staying home on election day if no fundies are on the ticket. Ron’s voters are energized for Ron but not for anybody else I think they will stay home if Ron is not VP or given a powerful job.
Like Ron regulating the Fed, Ron in charge of the army so he can make cuts. Ron in charge of the EPA or the interior dept would be able to make cuts but not the kind of cuts Ron’s people would be satisfied with.
But thats what I think Ron would have to settle for in a Mitt WH.
But will Ron settle and will his people still come over?
Ron in charge of cutting SS and Medicare would satisfy Ron’s voters but scare the crap out of older people. Older people who are the GOP’s base if Ron gets that job then all Ron’s voters would not be enough to match the Older voters voting against Ron.
There is always bias when race or in this case religious bias effects polls This race will be interesting to watch.
So the problem for Santorum is simply that he was starting from too deep of a deficit in New Hamshire to make it up.
Really? The problem for Santorum is being Santorum.
I wonder if Rick is being hit with anti Catholic bias in the South?
The problem for Santorum is being Santorum.
In anything other than a GOP primary that would likely be true. Many of the GOP base seem to live in an alternate reality though.
I suspect Mitt will pick a fundie for his ticket. The base is not overly enthused about him. He won’t have a choice if he wants to win.
Oh and I think Ron’s voters pout- no matter what they are offered in the admin.
I have a feeling it will be a Romney/Paul ticket. Should be fun!
I am, have been, and expect to remain bereft of shpilkes.
More and more people are finding out this guys is dickwad. He wants the states to control NOT ONLY your sexual reproductiion, but your sexual activities in the bedroom AND in the most intimate and traditional place in the history of the country, the back seat of your car.
I say, screw you Santorum and the hosrse you rode in on. BUt, you probably don;t approve of THAT either.
Indeed……..quite a conundrum.
Joe, you break me up. A religious cultist and a loon???????? Sounds like mroe fun than a barrel of monkeys.
Mitt will still win NH by a bunch and SC by 8-10 points. FL is still a ?.
A win there by Romney may well close the circus early.
Methinks that is unavoidable. And yet, probably a good thing for the country and the planet.
Lil Ricky was never going anywhere. Thank goodness. Although sorta said we won’t have him to kick around anymore… heh.
It’s gonna be Romney one way or another, who’ll get the nomination.
The bigger question is: who’ll Mittens run with as his Veep?
Santorum will soon have to abort his campaign.
Huntsman would be good VP material but there’s no way the Rs will tolerate 2 Mormons. The other candidates are such losers and their reputations are now in tatters from the debates that they won’t help a ticket – IMO. So maybe a senator.
Say, did the ‘Morman’ issue go away? (It was hung around Mitt’s neck more than Huntsman’s, interestingly, but it seems to be more under the radar now.)
None of these ridiculous clowns have remotely sane policies on anything. It’s really pissing me off that we’re so ass backwards.
“Rick is on top of Newt. Romney is beating both of them though”
Am I the only one who took that sentence in the wrong way?
There’s more than one way?
My mind would not accept the picture so I pretended it wasn’t there. :)
I would hope that it’s simply that NH voters – a little less wingnutty than Iowa cacus-goers – are getting to see him up close and discovering there’s a lot less there than appeared in IA.
Agreed. TWO Mormons. Howmany wives would there be in the WH then?????
Besides, Marco Rubio, hispanic tea-partier from the south will get the VP nod. Trust me.
strato wrote: “Rick is on top of Newt.”
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You mean “in the polls”??????? ‘Cuz, I could see that……several ways.
People in NH are fairly reasonable. They saw Santorum as telling then when, where, and WHO to have sex and when to use contraception. Most people don’t like politicians sticking their noses into airline lavatories. I know I don;t.
Mitt is running on top there too.
It’s closer though and as the GOP race in Iowa has proven things can shift.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_republican_presidential_primary-1597.html
Gingrich is within striking distance of Romney(if he’s still there if he places third in SC and still has the help of the billionaire that gave 5 million). Perry supporters breaking his way could help him.
The deciding factor may be Santorum himself.
The funny thing is that I don’t see either Gingrich or Santorum dropping out if they place in South Carolina and I have a hard time seeing either win as long as they split the not romney vote.
What can I tell you, them Republicans are kinky.
At least I didn’t add in a sheep or diapers.
Good point. Gingrich and Santorum will stay in until March 1, probably. Perry, who the hell knows what HE will do. BUt more and more republicans are seeing Romney as the “eventual nominee”. An important accomplishment/designation, dontcha know.
All I know, is that until recently, Rick was behind Newt.
I think Perry rides off into the sunset after SC. His numbers are too low for him to pull this off.
Groan. Ok. If he had done it much earlier, it would have been infanticide,and saved us all this agony. But he believes his campaign has a right to life and refuses to acknowldge that the fetus is already dead.
Romney is on top of Newt and soon Santorum will be pooling lower down.
I MEAN POLLING