Today we are getting are first entirely post-Iowa caucus polling from South Carolina and it is great news for Mitt Romney. The TIME/CNN/ORC poll has Romney with a big lead in South Carolina among likely primary voters. According to the poll, Romney leads with 37 percent and is beating everyone else by a double digit margins.
Mitt Romney 37%
Rick Santorum 19%
Newt Gingrich 18%
Ron Paul 12%
Rick Perry 5%
Jon Huntsman 1%
Someone else (vol.) *
None/ No one (vol.) *
No opinion 6%
For Romney to be leading in South Carolina is a big deal. South Carolina, with its large number of conservative Christian voters, is supposed to be problematic for Romney. It is the most favorable possible ground for a Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich to get a big win over Romney to make him no longer look inevitable.
If, as expected Romney, wins big next week in New Hampshire then rides that momentum to a plurality victory in South Carolina, he will effectively secure the nomination. That would give Romney three for three in the early contests and prove he can win even in states where the demographics are unfavorable.
Of course there is plenty of time for the state of the race to change. It is possible that the conservative voters could coalesce around a single anti-Romney, Santorum or Gingrich, which would give that candidate the votes to beat Romney. As things currently stand though, Romney appears to be in really good shape.



49 Comments

Mitt may be in good shape now, but he’s hovering at 40% in New Hampshire, and has left for South Carolina. That may piss off New Hampshire voters, who like their candidates up-close-and-personal for the entire 6-day period they, and only they, are permitted the spotlight. Could backfire, and if Mitt gets under 35%, no matter the %age the number two candidate gets, that is a LOSS for Mitt.
And I simply don’t believe this SC poll; there’s gonna be a Mormon Bradley effect in South Carolina, don’t doubt it. Voters are too Christian to be thought bigoted against a Mormon, so they will never tell a pollster they are voting for someone else. But in the privacy of the voting booth, quite a different story.
It’s most important to remember that Southern evangelicals do not consider Mormons Christian. And the idea of a non-Christian president (or another non-Christian president, if you will) terrifies them. When they say they want to ‘take my country back’ this is what they mean.
Is this when we hear about Santorum’s black child…
Oooh! He must be thrilled! He’s broken 25%!/s
Although – Teddy…gotta agree with you about the SC evangelicals. Is it possible they don’t quite realize he’s a Mormon yet?
OTOH, they’re not fond of the Whore of Babylon (RC Church, Ricky Santorum), either. (I’ve actually heard Baptists call the Episcopal Church the WofB! so…)
40% is great shape considering the closest guy on his tail is Paul with half that.
Obama vs. Romney – a sick joke. Why bother?
Romney will get the Rethug nomination by default. Only Perry and Gingrich seemed to be serious challengers and Perry proved to be a dim wit and poor Newt just has too much personal baggage.Santorum and Paul are too kooky to ever get the nod so that leaves Willard.I think that with the economy getting better Obama will easily defeat Willard.
Patience. It takes time for information to penetrate thick skulls.
Are you suggesting a Roman Catholic (Gingrich or Santorum) would be more acceptable to the Southern evangelicals than a Mormon?
I don’t do religion so all of this is beyond me.
Well I’m glad that’s over. The general election will be easy to ignore. Psycho killers Obama and Romney wont find much to disagree about.
Pick your poison…
I am surprised that Romney has picked up this much. But, republicans are easily swayed and dis-swayed. They want to be able to say they “backed the winner”. And, admittedly, they know a “loser” when they see one. All the “not-Romneys” are losers and they know it. I’m just a little sad to see the “circus” coming to an end.
eCAHN: Now, if we can find a black child in Romney’s background……..
I’ll do second round.
This DOES pose a significant dilemma for the right-wing southern christians, especially the evangelican wing. But, it’s not like they have a choice, or a voice. They can go mackrel-snapper or cultist, or failing that, go black. You gotta LOVE their options.
I’d start checking around basketball courts.
I wonder if he ever had sex with the maid?????
Betcha Newt is looking into that.
Don’t you mean his blah…..child?
I hear Newt inserted his foot too. Republicans really seem to want to be seen as the racist party this year.
“I hear Newt inserted his foot too. Republicans really seem to want to be seen as the racist party this year.”
———
I am glad to see them come out of the parlor….
Let’s get them out on the southern veranda and call a spade a spade.
They’ve got the world’s crappiest field.
I think Newt will hit a dry hole. My understanding is that Mormons are so prejudiced against blacks they won’t even hire them for domestic help.
Guess Romney’s Mexican relatives are not good enough.
True, but the generic Republican candidate gives Obama a run for the money.
What’s that say about the process for selecting candidates?
Eh? Southern Strategy dog whistles shall always be utilized… and then when called on it, the rightwingers can victimize themselves.
If you call me a bla.. racist, then it’s really YOU who’s the racist! Gotcha!!
I am surprised to see Romney picking up what appears to be half of Gingrich’s loss.
The only thing Santorum has going for him now is momentum, and that will be stopped in New Hampshire. He may or may not outperform Huntsman there.
Whither the Spirit of the Not-Romney? If not lodged in the bosom of Frothy, wherein shall it dwell? Oh, and it won’t be Paul.
Gingrich will be clobbering Romney with ads. Expect that 37% to fall back to normal (25%ish).
Gingrich or Perry.
That the decision for “selecting the candidates” was made a long time ago behind closed doors, and that your vote counts for jack-shit?
If he’s elected, will Romney work to roll back the ban on polygamy?
Poppy Booosh annointed Mittens. Think it’s a done deal for Willard.
Precisely. The more abysmal the choice of candidates, the greater the mirth of those behind the closed doors.
I’m with you on that. But in the general, Poppy’s puppet goes head to head against Cheney’s puppet. That’s where we see who has the most clout.
Yeah. I can go with that. And Cheney’s puppet is Barry. I’m sticking with Zero “winning,” but really in this cage match?? Who cares? Sucks either way, and the same outcomes will happen no matter what.
The outcome is the same regardless who wins. The significance of the election simply boils down to who wins the parlor game between the Bush faction and the Cheney faction.
Now here’s something interesting………several political “experts” claim there is a good chance that Romney wins BUT the house “reverts to” and the senate “stays in” democratic control.
“mirth”…….
You don’t see a lot of “mirth” these days. I wonder why????
yeppers
Still pondering which is worse: Bush crime syndicate v. the cold, dead, black unbeating heart of the House of Cheney.
Yeah? And as Dick Cheney would say: SO???
What possible difference would that make? Just more Kabuki show.
Albeit… amusing to natter about.
There might be fewer drone attacks, fewer assassinations of American citizens, and fewer prosecutions of whistleblowers with the Bush crime syndicate than with the
House of CheneyObama White House. Then again, maybe not.Don’t see a lot of “nattering” either. But, I think it’s coming back.
If it weren’t for Gingrich’s massive ego I’d call his campaign dead after SC if he doesn’t place in the top 3. He needs to prove he can at least pull the South.
Santorum is trying to capitalize on his not Romney staus though.
I get newsletters from both sides of the aisle. Today’s Redstate contained a solicitation saying it was time to coalesce around him as the not Romney choice. So he’s trying to get traction.
btw I always sorta picture Cheney as a kind of Baron Valdimir Harkonnen, esp in the scene where they bring in some slave and pull the plug out of his heart area… and Vlad laughs and laughs and laughs (and gets starbursts) as the slave dies a horrible death…
I’m okay with that, if he lets me keep my four wives.
really hard to say, i’nit? like rabid dogs squabbling over the bones…
OK, OK, OK, OK……..Here’ MY wish.
Paul starts a third party candidacy and he, Mitt and Obama do the debate thing………….
I am old enough to remember George Wallace in’68, and Perot in………whatever damn year that was, and that was world class entertainment.
I might just as well prefer a Romney WH anad a dem congress. Shit, what have we got to lose?
I’d only have 4 wives if two of ‘em were under 25. But hey, I’m 1/16 Cherokee, I never judge another Indian unless I’ve walked a mile in his mocassins.
I fail to see a distinction between Cheney and Obama.
See ya’ll her on Monday after the Romney/Santorum debates.
The VP debates with Perot’s guy Stockdale were even better.
Yeah, ok. Copy you on that.
But I’m thinking more about how Cheney *looks* + plus his being un-dead with exterior piggie heart ‘n all.
Barry *looks* like Mr. Nice Guy. Yes: that IS in many ways more nefarious.
But: on looks combined with many more years of deep dark “experience,” Cheney wins the Vlad Harkonnen contest.
If Paul were to run as a 3rd party, it would probably be as a Libertarian. Since he ran for President as a Libertarian in ’88s and didn’t get far.
If he were to drop out of the R party and run as a Libertarian, he would first have to defeat Gary Johnson for the nomination. (Johnson is former NM governor who was originally running as a Repub before dropping out.)
Paul will most likely drop out at some point and run for his current congressional seat.
You have a point.
So the two Harvard gents are going to duke it out as to see who can best serve the interests of the top 1 percent. How exquisite and how about some tea and crumpets for the chaps?