Tweet
It seems like the rule of the Republican primary race is whatever goes up must come down, except Mitt Romney who remains creepily consistent at roughly 20 percent support. In the past few weeks Newt Gingrich went from a big lead in Iowa to dropping all the way down to a distant third place according to PPP polling. Ron Paul now leads in the caucus. From PPP:
Newt Gingrich’s campaign is rapidly imploding, and Ron Paul has now taken the lead in Iowa. He’s at 23% to 20% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Gingrich, 10% each for Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 2% for Gary Johnson.
Gingrich has now seen a big drop in his Iowa standing two weeks in a row. His share of the vote has gone from 27% to 22% to 14%. And there’s been a large drop in his personal favorability numbers as well from +31 (62/31) to +12 (52/40) to now -1 (46/47). Negative ads over the last few weeks have really chipped away at Gingrich’s image as being a strong conservative- now only 36% of voters believe that he has ‘strong principles,’ while 43% think he does not.
What we are seeing with Gingrich in Iowa is also reflected in Gallup’s national tracking poll. According to Gallup Gingrich’s support has dropped 9 points in the past two weeks.
With Gingrich imploding under the intense scrutiny, at this point it looks unlikely that a single candidate will emerge to rally the entire anti-Romney vote. Instead it will be split among a handful of candidates. That split is looking pretty good for the Romney campaign right now.
49 Comments
And after all the effort the Fundies put into building a King David loophole for Newt to slither through, this is how they get thanked.
Boxturtle (Paging Chuck Norris to the RED courtesy phone, Please!)
A Paul win in Iowa will be hilarious. Ron who?
Paul….is his wife the one with the fishsticks????
I think, as much as it pains me to do so, that the “not-Romney” bump is simply fading. People are realizing that this “not-Romney” candidate is, in reality, the despicable, disgraced former spoeaker, twice a cheater, thrice married fat tub o’ lard Newt Gingrich. Perhaps his stand on child labor cost him a vote or two, even with the right wing.
The be a llittle slow on thge uptake over there in the GOP.
To bad they can’t change the rules so Perry, Santorum, and Bachmann can run as a triumvirate. That would sure keep Barack awake at night.
THey called Ginbgrich’s campaign “dead” back in the summer. BUt, if he loses Iowa, that would be a real blow. Calista may have to fire all the campaign workers,, agaiin.
Heh. A few years back a truckload of Mrs. Paul’s fishsticks overturned on the highway in New Jersey and split open, scattering boxes of fishsticks everywnere. Everyone passing by pulled over to pick up a few for the frigidare until the cops arrived.
Or, she could induce them to stay on, using her special skills . . .
Considering we’re screwed no matter what we do, I think I’d take Ron Paul. At least he’s not a liar.
Ewwww. Just…ewwww.
Heh, best thing that’s happened in Jersey for a decade.
Sorry, but everybody’s got their special talents. look where Nancy Reagan’s took her lol.
Maybe a few decades. They’re still talking about it there like it was manna from heaven.
What this country needs is an implosion of the entire Republican party and their minions.
I’m sure. But, Jersey being Jersey, I bet there was no tartar sauce.
Right. They’re still waiting for that truck to tip over.
Bluetoe2,
It seems to be in-process!
LOLOLOLOL
OT but somewhat related to this thread…I have noticed that people commenting on FDL(myself included) are slowly and inexorably losing their minds. Comments used to devolve to pithy, sarcastic, and punny but now it seems to be Bachmannesque batshit crazy.
Santorum’s at 10%? That’s a 300% jump in a week. At that rate, the baby farmer will sweep every state and all the territories in November.
A mind is a terrible thing to lose, if you have a mind to lose.
BSb, I resemble that remark. I think it’s due to the overall anxiety in the country.
Of course, to quote Mark Twain, “95% of the people in the world are idiots and the other 5% of us are in danger of contagion.”
What this country needs is a new third party composed of citizens who cannot and will not be bought off by the 1%, and who will, you know, actually LEAD the nation. I can dream…
I don’t see the implosion of the so-called “Republican” party as bringing us much to cheer about, albeit I am bored with their buffoonish idiocy. With the so-called “Democrats” selling us all out to the highest bidder, what difference does it make who “runs” as the ReTHUG candidate??
My prediction remains the same (to be boringly redundant): the PTB want Obama as the next putative POTUS, so Obama will “win.” Obama has done everything that the 1% wants and more. Obama is the hired hand of the 1% and will remain so in the next general election.
I think that’s just in Iowa. Albeit, from 3 to 10, that’s pretty damn impressive. But, let’s not forget, he hasn’t had HIS turn as the “not-romney” of the month yet.
If Gingrich implodes and Paul surges, the PTB are going to be at a loss to know what to do with Paul. He’s not vulnerable to anything but his idiotic ideas, and most of them (with the major exception of not bombing the world into glass) are acceptable to the Republican PTB. The only thing they can hold against him is being against the Iraq invasion, but that charge is past its expiry date and in any event doesn’t resonate with the primary voters.
Paul also has an enthusiastic network of supporters who will keep in enough cash to keep running. I think we are looking at a brokered convention. Hard to say who will come out of it, but if it gets that far I doubt it will be Romney. I’m sure there are a lot of Rethugs in the woodwork saying to themselves, ‘maybe it’s me, maybe it’s me’.
http://www.justicepartyusa.net/
Rocky Anderson if you want a 3rd party candidate who most FDLers wouldn’t need to hold their nose for to vote for Pres.
Expect an op-ed endorsement from the Pope to appear in The Forward.
You know I usuall agree with ya’. ‘Cept that I don’t think Obama will win unless the GOP nominates someone other than Romney.
Political experts were “predicting” the death of the GOP back in 2008. Didn’t happen. Mostly because they STILL have a good 31% of the people buffaloed and have a good 15-17% that will vote republican most of the time. One has to admit, they are very good liars and have a very organized and well funded base. OTOH, the democrats couldn’t find their ass with a GPS device. and win mostly only when the people are totally fed up with the GOP…Clinton, Obama.
I DO feel a large % of people are so fed up with Washington and the power corporation and banking have, that we might, MIGHT, have a socio-political revolution. But, you;’re rirhgt. WE NEED A LEADER, not beholden to the 1%. We ain’t got one with this guy and I don;t know if we can get someone like elected without campaign finance reform. And, permanent changes tot he government can only be accomplished with that AND term limits.
LIke your contributions, but, Romney IS their best choice to beat Obama and they will “bite the bullet” eventually. Nobody else is electable nationwide.
LOL I’m probably losing my mind a bit, but it’s just a natural defense mechanism to do so in times like these. Thinking clearly generates a lot of emotional pain.
I though the Pope was a Pawlenty supporter. I could be wrong. I did hear that Gary Busey was gonna endorse Santorum.
I agree and my crazy dream is a four party race b/c Paul runs as ind. and Romney runs for corporate Obama haters and O runs for bots and banks and Anderson gets endorsed by OWS. We have an “ArabSpring” social media event and convert a slice of each into democracy loving 99%ers.
We need distractions and Dos Equis. Lots of Dos Equis.
Stay thirty my friends.
Iowa has historically given Jupiter-bumps to candidates who beat expectations, the media ejaculations propel the candidate to a first- or second-place score in NH, where real people really cast real votes. The potential media attention for Paul will alter everything. F’rinstance: he’s a Pgh native, so PA’s many electoral votes might go R in November.
WOW! Busey would be a very important endorsement.
I’m impressed. :)
From your mouth to God’s ears, amigo.
I tried to stay thirty, but failed miserably. I am thirsty, however.
Invest in motorcycle helmets now.
This country will always be run by a dem or repub. The people are simply too stupid lazy and apathetic to vote for anybody else. Both of these parties are criminal organizations and yet the people of this country could give a crap. Its sad because this country has alot of possibilities but i now longer have any hope for it at all. I think it will be a long slow road to something. Either it will ofically because a fascist police state or it will just become a third world country. Which its pretty much there already.
Those possibilities are not mutually exclusive.
I know. America is creating its own version of these. I mean do people really think that the economy sucks just by chance? Its designed to be this way and will be this way probably until the end of this country. Meaning high unemployment and whatnot. And the people just accept it. I dont understand it myself frankly. They by all of the horseshit the theocrats spew at them. Its bizarre frankly. It would at least be nice if the people that run things had decent personalities.
I believe the corps are transitioning to a future that will be all about Asia and other developing markets. That is where fast growth can be had. So, they are draining capital as much as possible out of this market. The people? They are used to being treated like livestock, so they are acting like livestock. Very depressing. We need to replace the snake on the “Don’t tread on me” flag with a worm. And let’s remove the word “Don’t.”
Unfortunately I am beginning to see that God is a 1%er.:)
IF there is a God, I just think he’s moved on to other, more interesting projects. He figures we know about guillotines and tumbrels, so we can be left on our own.
When you are actually in the market let me know; I can get tumbrels wholesale from a guy who knows a guy. :)
Thanks. Got a good source for guillotines? First things first.
Watching the MSM deal with Paul in the lead would be interesting.
However, the PTB have another problem with Paul besides his aversion to perpetual war — his stance on ending the Fed. That scares the shit out of them.
For those of you writing off Ron Paul, at what stage of the game did the zeitgeist start to contemplate Americans electing a black candidate with a Muslim name 7 years into the war on terrorism?
About the same relative time as people are currently starting to wonder if Ron Paul could actually catch fire…
While Ron Paul’s doctrinaire libertarianism is problematic, he has enough historical acumen and political cunning to do what Jefferson did with the Louisiana Purchase and throw principles to the wind.
Perhaps the GOP will realize that they can either nominate the 2012 equivalent of John Kerry or the next Ronald Reagan.
It looks more and more that they will do the latter.
Was it Molloy for whom the loss of consciousness was no great loss?