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There is one very small piece of sorta good news for Mitt Romney buried in the last wave of polling showing Newt Gingrich leading in almost every state. Romney does slightly better against President Obama in the key swing states. From Quinnipiac polling:
Matching President Obama against either Gingrich or Romney in each of these key states – no one has won the White House since 1960 without carrying at least two of them – the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds:
- Florida: Romney with 45 percent to Obama’s 42 percent; Obama at 46 percent to Gingrich’s 44 percent.
- Ohio: Romney at 43 percent to Obama’s 42 percent; Gingrich with 43 percent to Obama’s 42 percent.
- Pennsylvania: Obama edging Romney 46 – 43 percent; Obama tops Gingrich 48 – 40 percent.
Romney can still legitimately claim the polling shows him as the GOP’s best chance of defeating Obama, but his electability advantage over Gingrich isn’t very big. Gingrich’s numbers are clearly weaker but they still technically put him within legitimate striking distance of Obama in the key battleground states of Ohio and Florida.
For the electability argument to really change minds Romney needs the polls to show him as the only hope for beating Obama, not just the candidate who would likely perform marginally better.
I won’t be surprised if the Romney campaign attacks against Gingrich personally in addition to focusing on why the Republican base shouldn’t like him, also heavily emphasis on reminding everyone about things Gingrich has done that could make him a huge general election liability.
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Lots of stories about how R PTB & Newt’s staff don’t like him. Here’s one example.
There’s entirely too much great historical footage of Newt from his previous governing days that will be recycled into wonderful Obama campaign commercials to remind the general public why Newt is not a good idea on any level.
Wait for it. It’ll come. And if Romney manages to do the work for the Democrats’ campaign, look at all the money saved.
You mean things like, oh I don’t know, starting wars without Congress’ approval, assassinating American citizens without due process, ending habeas corpus and thus the constitution for all Americans not just “fouriners,” supporting Wall St. at the expense of Main St.,….
Stuff like that??
Oh wait…..
What happens if they have an election and no one is electable???
It’s clear that Republicans want to give Obama another term. He’s done an outstanding job for them.
http://www.thepeoplesview.net/2011/12/jon-walker-and-firedoglake-would-have.html
I cannot believe the lying, creeps that catapult this slander. Yes, I can actually. But no slander should go unanswered. The facts are clear and AHC or whatever they call it, is a failure that enriches corporate parasites.
A flame war against FDL. That is 11-dimensional.
Wow, there’s more stoopid on display there than you’d find at Red State.
Never thought I’d ever type those words….
Now that Romney’s pledged to sign the Paul Ryan kill-Medicare plan, he’s removed his electability argument, I think. The poll you cite, Jon, may not yet account for that flip-flop. The GOP base, without an electability argument favoring Romney, will go with its heart and nominate Newt, I believe.
This is clearly punching-up by whoever these trolls are.
Don’t give them the clicks they so desperately seek.
When the time comes, Willard will find his typical inartful way of backing away from the Ryan Plan. Even when his words are read back to him he’ll still try to squirm out of it, and the suckers that are the GOP will buy it. In the meantime, if Newton gets the support of right wing talk radio and Fox behind him he will have a bigger megaphone than Willard could ever hope to have. Their convention could be a real blood letting, or at least one can hope.
And yet our illustrious “liberal” pundits like Rachel Maddow are cheering the rise of Newt. Yea! he’s unelectable! all those disaffected Democrats will just have to vote for Obama now! And of course, Obama supporters are already happily running adds against Romney, thinking that they are all so Machiavellian. Look we’re just like Karl!
It’s so very sad, watching one “unelectable” Republican nutcase after another actually getting elected to office. You would think that maybe some of these “liberals” would care a little more about the future of the country rather than the future of one particularly compromised “Democrat” candidate.
Gievn the trouble they are having finding a sane candidate, some one should suggest to the Reubplican Party that they should sit out this one!
I don’t know which narcissist would be worse for our country Gingrich, Obama, or Romney. It all boils down to which of these clowns you feel will do the least amount of damage. How sad is that?
I’m still writing in a choice to protest my lack of choices because I honestly think that no matter how you slice it that we’ll be screwed for the next 4 years. It’s just a matter of how much pain we’re going to suffer.
Has anyone noticed how gargantuan Newtie has become? I am thinking of calling him, NEWTZILLA!
A guy that fat puts a lot of stress on the ol’ ticker. Could have a heart attack almost any day. Like a Tuesday. Just sayin’……
We do indeed find ourselves in one helluva pickle. I’m 60, but everybody says I look much younger than that. I don’t remember our country being in this much trouble ever before with so little “hope” on the horizon. The republican “hit parade” has not one song with “a good beat that you can dance to”. The “change” we were promised in 2008 has not materialized.
Jon said: “I won’t be surprised if the Romney campaign attacks against Gingrich personally in addition to focusing on why the Republican base shouldn’t like him, also heavily emphasis on reminding everyone about things Gingrich has done that could make him a huge general election liability.”
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Well, they’d better get to it, NOW!!! If Gingrich wins Iowa and places a close second in NH, then wins SC and FL, with his massive bulk rolling downhill, his inertia WILL be hard to stop.
Someone should try to photoshop Newt into the Philsbury doughboy body. Unfortunately/fortunately he may not fit.
One think to consider, from appearances Newt looks like a heart attack waiting to happen. Other than signing books, does this guy get any exercise.
It doesn’t matter who the GOP nominates in 2012; they won’t be winning back the White House.
This poll isn’t too much. Show me Colorado and Virginia — the two closest states from 2008 with reflecting President Obama’s margin over John McCain — and then look at Nevada and New Mexico (because they, like Fla. and Ohio, are also longterm bellwethers). Add to these Iowa, which has been tightly refective in margins since Bill Clinton’s first election in 1992. I’d also suggest getting a good polling look at states McCain held onto by five points or less where Obama won the female vote: Georgia, Missouri, and Montana. Why those three? Because when incumbents win re-election, they routinely get more electoral votes (over first election) and the second-election map does not mirror exactly the one from the first. And if it turns out that I’m right — that Obama gets re-elected — look at the others that were single digits for McCain, including his home state of Arizona.
All this doesn’t mean, “Go cheer for re-electing President Obama,” because the Democrats are the best! The economy we’re in hasn’t been to this level since the 1930s. And there weren’t polling firms telling us in November 1935, one year from an election, the electability for a second term of then-President Franklin Roosevelt.
Also worth considering is this: the pols from the Republican field the prognosticators figure were viable — and, perhaps, electable — opted not to run. Why sit out 2012 if President Obama can’t win re-election? Why sit out Election 2012 if it’s the Republicans’ to lose?