There is now a near perfectly even four way split between Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in the Republican Iowa Caucus, according to the most recent Bloomberg poll taken by Selzer & Co. From Bloomberg:
A Bloomberg News poll shows Cain at 20 percent, Paul at 19 percent, Romney at 18 percent and Gingrich at 17 percent among the likely attendees with the caucuses that start the nominating contests seven weeks away.
Only three points separate the fourth place Gingrich from nominally first place Cain in a poll that has a margin of error of 4.4 percent, making all four candidates essentially tied.
Iowa caucuses are relatively hard to poll accurately, but at this moment it is conceivable that any of the four candidates could win the Iowa caucus. As long as the split among voters stays fairly even, a candidate could in theory win a plurality with less than a 30 percent of the overall votes.
The other interesting finding from the poll is that with less than two months until the caucus, 60 percent of respondents said they could still be convinced to switch candidates. There is the potential for even more big changes in the race before the voting begins. For example, Gingrich has gotten a bit of a free ride from the media, but now that he has surged in the polls we will see if his new found support can survive a month of significantly increased scrutiny.



4 Comments
Its Mitt’s world and we’re just living in it. I don’t think Romney could ask for a better outcome than for 3 other candidates to split the ant-Mitt vote in the Iowa Caucus.
4 points between first and fourth?? That’s just like the Nascar Sprint Cup Championship heading into Homestead, Florida for the finale this weekend.
Damn…..that’s coincidence!!!!!!
Ok, OK. Bachmann and Santorum, both running in <2% ballpark, appear to be "toast". Huntsman, holding steady at his historic 1%, BUT, perhaps the most electable nationwide candidate, seems to be in a rut. Albeit a stable rut. The upper echelon three "not romneys", representing perhaps the most unelectable trio of candidates I have ever seen on the national stage, are, indeed, poised for, what exactly? Who knows. Romney, runnoin for president for 7 years, is in THIRD place among Iowan caucosoids. And, just as I predicted, our own Texas governor Perry has succesfully lost 26 points in a little over 5 weeks and has just two toes left on his right foot.
The obvious winner…………………………..Tim Pawlenty who got out "when the getting was good".
I hope that Romney loses Iowa badly,he is too dangerous in the general election.Maybe the wingnuts will deny him the nomination,If Rick Perry had half a brain he would have the thing sewed up by this time.