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Over the past month, President Obama’s job approval numbers have managed to bottom out and start to improve ever so slightly in Gallup’s tracking poll. Compared to the beginning of the month when Obama’s job approval hovered around 40 percent, it has climbed up every so slightly to 43 percent. From Gallup:
With a job approval of 43 percent, Obama is still beatable in a general election, but he doesn’t appear as incredibly weak as he did at the beginning of the month.
Poll after poll after poll has shown that Mitt Romney does substantially better than any of the other possible nominees against Obama in the general election. If Obama’s job approval numbers stay in this current poor–but not terrible–range, Romney will be able to make a powerful case to primary voters that he is their only chance to unseat Obama. On the other hand, if Obama’s approval drops down to the mid-30s when the first primaries start, this electability argument won’t have much value, because if Obama has low enough approval numbers, almost any GOP nominee could beat him.
For the Romney campaign, the best thing is for Obama to be weak enough that he can be defeated, but strong enough that it seems only Romney can beat him. Obama with a job approval in the mid-40s is right about in the sweet spot for Romney.
18 Comments
Great line.
And how fucking pathetic is that?
Thanks for the post, Jon.
LOLOL
Sorry, should have mentioned: Love Jon’s posts.
And it will be hard for a nominee Romney, to task Obama for flip-flopping on Bush tax cuts… ;^)
– Balkingpoints / www
Can you imagine the collective depression weighing down this country, once it’s settled between D (Obama) or R (Romney) for four years (!) come next November?
Holy Mother of Pearl.
Romney vs. Obama in 2012: America’s decline continues.
Awesome, two Republicans going toe to toe. End result, the people of this country continue getting screwed. Just fucking awesome
I don’t know about that. For instance, it could be argued with a straight face that even as flawed as Romney is, he would be the best GOP nominee since Ike.
As to John’s point, at least as to the folks that will get the first bite of the apple, the Iowa Dutch Reformed, they don’t think that way.
i’m not voting for either. No more lesser-of-evilism for me, I’ll vote only FOR something based on its merits alone
Yeah, I like the guy. His big secret (which is no secret) is he’s far more moderate than the rest of the Republican party. His flip flops are simply his artless attempt to hide that fact (that he’s a terrible liar is to his credit, its the pathological liar who always sound so sincere you should worry about).
We have a “pathological liar who always sound so sincere” as the current president.
I see no way a grand bargain that screws Social Security and Medicare would get Democratic Party agreement if Mitt were elected – but that is likely to happen with Obama.
Pelosi is already trying to make it seem she is screwing Social Security not to get funds for tax cuts for the rich (called tax loophole removal with lower rates), saying she is screwing Social Security but the money is going back into the Social Security System so it is OK, because lower benefits mean a bigger Trust fund and “safety” – forgetting that the Trust fund is what financed the Bush tax cuts for the rich.
Indeed what this is all about is the rich not wanted to pay back that loan via paying more taxes. As long as the Trust Fund is just used to keep the tax on the rich down, to hell with the Trust fund – it will just represent an overpayment of payroll tax that is used to justify no tax increase on the rich.
What I want to know is how low does Obama’s approval have to go before he drops out- you know, for the good of the party. Yes, it’s a trick question- The guy obviously despises the Democratic party and everything it used to stand for so if running with a 30% approval rating destroys the party I’d bet that he will gladly do it. You know he will be rewarded handsomely for throttling the left by his “savvy businessmen” friends regardless. I know that this is just an academic question as long as his approvals are in the mid 40′s but I’m thinking the coming supper committee capitulation just might put him back into the 30′s. We will see.
Our system has truly flipped-flopped. As long as the Republicans nominate a reasonable candidate such as Romney, they are actually the more progressive party now on the presidential level, because of the Democratic opposition to be expected from their proposals, which does not arise when a Democrat becomes president. (Thus because of Democratic opposition, Bush cannot cut Social Security, while Obama will). This was actually also true in 2008 with McCain. And going back in history, it was also true in 1960. Nixon, far more cautious and less bellicose than Kennedy, would not have started the slide into the Vietnam War.
good analysis
the gop won’t take a chance w perry unless obama is crippled
of course, good news for romney is bad news for obama bc romney beats obama in a landslide
perry is obama’s only hope
so, if obama were really clever he’d drive his popularity down now to entice the gop to go all-in with perry, and then boost his popularity (who knows how?) once perry gets in
it’s eleventy-dimensional and i’m sure team obama has it covered
Obama’s approval rate slightly increases , sure it does. And the S and P is a legit outfit. All the ratings and polls are just tools of manipulation. The planet is in protest on Obama’s watch, they just want people to perceive that nothing is affecting him. That he is not a major factor in the Occupay Wall Street Movement
Why, because when we have our phony election, he will win. Obama has served up to the OnePercent like no President ever. He has come in as a wolf in sheep’s clothes and dismantled all our momentum and captial for single payer and now he’s attacking our SS and Medicare. All from a president elected by the people with a mandate to do exactly the opposite.
Obama has simply offered SS and Medicare. He murdered the Single Payer movement with a sneak up blow from behind and now he is offering what we elected him to protect. Any Dem voter still being suckered by this evil lying elite serving right winger is part of the problem.
White Romney vs. Half-White Romney: It’s like one of those prints where you have a photo in various tones.
No matter what shade, the corporatist contempt for Americans and the raging insincerity is still there. (Although Romney hasn’t assassinated any 16-year-old boys, that I know of.)
From 42 to 43????????? Not sure that represents a “trend”. NOt that it matters.
I think you’re on target. We, the non-corporate citizenry, be screwed” either way.