Herman Cain leads the Republican Presidential field in South Carolina and is tied for first in Florida according to two new NBC News-Marist polls out today. In South Carolina, “the first in the South” primary, Cain has a 4 point lead over Romney among likely primary voters. From Marist:
- 30% for Herman Cain
- 26% for Mitt Romney
- 9% for Rick Perry
- 6% for Newt Gingrich
- 5% for Ron Paul
- 5% for Michele Bachmann
- 2% for Rick Santorum
- 1% for Jon Huntsman
- Less than 1% for Gary Johnson
- 15% are undecided
In Florida, Cain technically holds a one point lead, so the race is effectively tied between him and Romney. From Marist:
- 32% for Herman Cain
- 31% for Mitt Romney
- 8% for Rick Perry
- 6% for Ron Paul
- 6% for Newt Gingrich
- 2% for Michele Bachmann
- 2% for Jon Huntsman
- 1% for Rick Santorum
- Less than 1% for Gary Johnson
- 11% are undecided
This is good news for Cain and extremely bad news for Rick Perry. South Carolina will hold the first primary in the south, and it is very likely Florida will hold the second one. If Perry, a southern governor, doesn’t have a strong showing in South Carolina and Florida, most people will write him off early.
Perry has a large enough campaign war chest that theoretically could make this into a long drawn out battle for the nomination. But for that to happen he will need to do much better than these polls are currently indicating in the early primary states that should be favorable to him.



27 Comments
I rather hope Cain wins the GOP nomination: I love the thought of Tea Party heads exploding when their only choice is between two black men. They will either stay away in droves, or run their own Tea Party candidate. Either way, Cain can only help Obama.
A Cain nomination should be all that Obama needs to be re-elected.
If Cain wins either of those states, I think Perry will drop out. The point about Perry the Southern Governor is valid, if he can’t win those two states his suport nationwide will be too soft.
Boxturtle (Thinks Perry will pocket the war chest and try for a VP nod)
Cain is technically twice as black as Obama, so according to earlier conventional wisdom, anyone against Cain must be racist.
Perry being anywhere near the national gov’t is terribly scary.
Is that photo of a raisin or a rabbit-doodoo pizza? Hard to tell.
I agree with Bill Mahr; in a month Cain will be behind in the polls and the too pure for Romney crowd will be salivating on someone else.
Cain has two strikes against him. First is shared with all the other nominess except Romney, the powers that be behind the GOP have already decided on Mitt because he earned the right to be the standard bearer by coming in 2nd last time and he’s pro-Wall Street. The second is that Cain would demolish the covert racist strategy (and sometimes not so covert) the GOP has used since Nixon.
I get scared just thinking about how many guns Perry has access to. I’ve reached the point where he only scares me a little more than Obama.
Boxturtle (But that’s not because Perry improved…On, no)
Remember the PTB picked Mitt and Hillary in 2008. How did that work out for them?
I predict Obama will win and there will still be protestors at wall street.
Pretty well, actually. They ended up with Obama.
I don’t think a GOP president could have got the Dems to agree to some of the stuff Obama has done.
Boxturtle (But We Must Protect Our Own)
Looks like Thaddeus McCotter’s endorsement didn’t help Romney very much.
LOL
My guess is you’re a either a “paid” Democrat or have not been a regular visitor to FDL over the last 2 1/2 years. It’s implausable anyone who’s read Jane & team’s exhaustively thorough coverage of Obama’s reign could not possibly hope for his reelection.
They were comfortable with either Hillary or Mitt but the way they reacted and the money they spent in 2010 shows they weren’t that sure of O. I’m not saying they are unhappy now with the way it worked out but they didn’t want McCain or O.
Bailey, are you sure that you phrased your comment as you wanted it? I think the general feeling is that most here do not want 0 back in the saddle.
Keep in mind that even though the results were released today, the poll was conducted between October 10th and 12th, so it does not take yesterday’s debate, nor the scrutiny given to “999″ into account.
ahhh…I still live in a state of denial and hope that Cain will be drummed out of the race on the basis of his crappy ideas.
I’m not a paid democrat, don’t know the gentleman @1, and I have read Jane & Co’s work since Cristy was known as “Reddhead”.
And, given my alternatives, I’ll be voting for Obama again.
This is not to say I don’t don’t share in the widespread disappointment of his first term on everything from the public option & hiring wall street retreads to medical pot, but I’m gonna vote because people have died for my right to do so.
And, given I’m gonna vote (and Obama isn’t gonna see a primary, which I think would’ve been a good idea) there isn’t any other reasonable choice to consider.
Now I know that sentiment is as popular as head lice around here, but it is what it is.
You can rest assured that I have no allegiance to either wing of the Two Party. I would rather not vote for Obama, but I don’t see any of the Republican choices as being any better. Right now, my vote is leaning towards Nona Theabove.
It does, however, amuse me that the country’s racist TP (expand that as you will) might be forced into a choice between two African American candidates. Like I said, heads would pop.
It takes a self-hating Black man, who constantly denounces affirmative action, black leaders, and economic and social justice to get the votes of the still racially tinged South. Uncle Tom is alive and well, and he’s running in the GOP primary for President.
He will be.
I’d be VERY surprised if were to become the nominee.
….no one says “zed!” anymore….
Sadly, I think I agree with you, unless by some miracle a viable third candidate emerges or someone has the “audacity of hope” to primary v. Obama (is it too late for that?). And it would depend on that candidate.
I think many people and perhaps 100% of the 99% percent realize that their vote is nullified by the lobbyists, and that’s a big reason there is OWS.
Clarence thomas ,the traitor to the constitution, could win then .
As I have said before, OWS is our best hope for positive change anytime soon.
As the protests become larger and more widespread, it will become impossible to ignore, just as the civil rights protests were in the 60′s.
I would tend to agree. Hermie running in THAT party among THOSE people and actually garnering the support he “apparently” has, is a riddle wrapped in an enigma.
OTOH, I don’t think Herman KNOWS he’s black. Nothing he’s said or espouses would support that premise.
He and Santorum and Bachmann will soon be out of money.
Based on the last two debates, the candidates on either end of the stage, the bookends, if you will, might just as well as been in the parking lot as “in” the arena for all the attention they drew.