Another poll confirms that the Massachusetts Senate race is currently shaping up to be one of the closest races in 2012 and could potentially be the race that decides which party controls the chamber. According to a new UMass Lowell-Boston Herald poll of registered voters, incumbent Republican Scott Brown holds a narrow 41 percent to 38 percent lead over Democrat Elizabeth Warren.
Looking at the internals Warren is in slightly better shape than the top line numbers would indicate. The poll found more undecided Democrats than undecided Republicans. As the Warren campaign increases her name recognition, it is likely that most of the undecided Democrats will gravitate to her in the general election.
Brown does extremely well with independents, winning them 48 percent to 29 percent and is even impressively strong among Democrats, getting 16 percent of them compared to Warren’s 65 percent. The only reason the race is so close right now despite Brown’s broad appeal with independents is that the Democratic party holds a huge registration advantage in deep blue Massachusetts.
The poll also tested the Democratic primary and found Warren with an impressive lead over all other Democrats. Warren is currently polling at 36 percent in the primary with all other Democratic hopefuls in single digits. Thomas Conroy is in second with 5 percent, Marisa DeFranco is in third with 4 percent.



94 Comments
Now let’s see if Obama will allow the DNC to actually help her.
At this point, maybe she’s better off not trying to deal w/ those clowns too deeply.
I think he will. If he does, it means that Warren won’t bail on him, if his numbers get into the low 30′s. Which, unfortunately will probably mean that Scott Brown will win, since he’ll be able to hang Mr. Centrist around her neck like a turd-lei.
“The democratic party holds a huge registration advantage in deep-blue Massachusetts.”
Just like they did in that Queens District of New York, where they’d held the seat since 1923.
KGB; I’ve got $10 that says that if Warren wants to win back Ted’s old seat, she’s going to have to put enough distance between herself and Obama to build a freeway in it.
Does it really matter which party controls the chamber?
Based on the Coakly exit polling, I’m a bit surprised she isn’t doing a little better with independents, but the race really is in it’s earliest stages.
Hope some of the other Dems stay in it long enough for them to have a few debates and such where the focus and narrative arcs are kept within a proper Democrat-centric vein … and to keep the dynamic from moving in to the general *too* quickly.
Name recognition? You’re kidding! Warren’s been on MSM for various reasons for years. If she can’t win in Mass., then Dems are really hurting nationally. O’s coattails are for tripping.
I think there is nothing that Obama can do to change that huge loss of Independent support that has hit him, and I don’t think there’s much chance of Warren picking them up in Mass, either.
Especially if she tries to run with Obama.
After watching him jerk her around for most of a year, as that liberal dog-yummy, I’ve seen nothing to indicate that she’s tough enough to bail and run at him some, and, as has already been noted on here, Obama is going to be her biggest problem: not Brown.
Here’s what I wish Warren would do: 1) run as an independent (screw the Dems & GOPS), and 2) accept only campaign donations written on personal checks and limited to $1,000 per person. No $$$ from corps, unions, trail lawyers, banks, and other assorted pimps.
How in hell can she be trailing in the current atmosphere unless the poll is rigged? If the poll is correct the people of Mass. are fucking braindead.
Harry Reid gave us all the winning strategy in 2010 Nevada. You identify your opponent, open your wallets, get out on the street, knock on doors, make the phones calls and make sure people get to the polls! He stood side by side with Obama and won big! It worked then and it will work now! Or we can sit our hands and lose!
If the DNC can’t get a good democratic candidate elected in Massachsetts with state-wide recognition, we’ve got bg problem.
“How in hell can she be trailing in the current atmosphere…”
Because she’s still seen as an Obama loyalist. It’s going to be the kiss of political death in 2012.
A good question. I’m not so sure that it does. Seems like it’s all the same old, same old, no matter who’s putatively “got the numbers.”
Still, I suppose one can *dream* that some Senators will hold onto their humanity and not be solidly bought off and perhaps *try* to represent the small people. Warren appears to possibly be of that ilk. In which case, it might be “nice” to have her win. Only time will tell.
most people don’t watch the news. You would be surprised how poor almost every politicians name recognition is.
In what right wing wacko dreamworld do live in? Is your last name Koch?
Harry Reid was an incumbent Senator of long standing. He knows where the money and power is, in Nevada. He was also the Senate Majority Leader. With all of the advantages that those things imply, he still barely won.
Warren has none of those, and Brown has made inroads into the democratic voters.
This election doesn’t hang on ringing doorbells, the mechanics of it are set: it’s going to be a referendum on Obama. The GOP made the mid-terms that, and without Obama’s name even being on the ballot, they hammered us. This time, if you run with Obama, you’re going to have two strikes against you, at the start. I think it’s one more reason for the democratic “leadership” (how NOT to use those quotes…) to tell him that he needs to take his negotiating skills into the private sector.
She IS going to have to separate herself from Obama somehow. No matter how popular she is.
Obama is going to be an anchor for every Dem running. Which might be a good thing, it will force them to disagree publically with at least one item that Obama is proposing.
Boxturtle (I’m unaware of anyone running under a “support the president” banner)
I live in the “dreamworld” in which the democrats just lost a house seat in a district in which they hold a 3-1 edge over registered republicans.
What’s in your brain?
Not to mention, Jon, how poor the “reputation” and, usually, deservedly so.
If Warren does not distance herself from Obama, and soon, then she cannot expect claims of political necessity to overcome the truth of political “expediency”.
The larger question is simply one of whose “expediency” …?
DW
It’s going to be like rats leaving a sinking ship.
Anyone who thinks differently needs to tell us how Obama is going to turn things around, after voluntarily spending the past 31 months in the GOP spay-and-neuter clinic.
If he were to represent the banks, I think we could get a countrywide settlement quickly.
“I’ve agreed to your $1T settlement. Could we agree to limit prison terms to 10 years?”
Boxturtle (“Okay, how about 20 years? But no perpwalks for CEOs!”)
Total votes cast? Total Democrats that voted? I rest my case!
I agree
Obama is very toxic, to say the least.
Obama words fool some people, but his actions do not fool anyone!
Every group inside of the Dem Party has been screwed over by OBAMA.
The only reason the GOP came back from the DEAD was OBAMA.
Elizabeth Warren and other Dems seeking to get elected in 2012, must distance themselves from OBAMA quickly.
It’s EXACTLY rats leaving a sinking ship. That is the perfect analogy.
Boxturtle (Somebody better tell Cap’n Rat he’s gonna have to do his own rowing)
How does she distance herself from the person that put her on the national stage?
That is why Tom Daschle is still majority leader?
“…and soon…”
I think that’s going to be critical. If she waits until he’s so far down that he has no chance of coming back, Brown will nail her for being un-principled.
The voters are sick of political hacks who sit around waiting to see which way the wind blows. For Warren to win, she’s going to have to look like a leader with the toughness to speak the truth…and if she sticks with Obama, that is simply not going to be possible.
The Dems stayed home. The fellow won the election with fewer votes than he had when he lost the prior election for that seat.
The Dems offered a very poor candidate in a very toxic environment. They are doing the same countrywide for 2012.
I predict a slaughter of incumbents in both parties.
Boxturtle (And I predict that FDL will be given the lions share of the blame by the losers)
Most Dems are running for cover, BoxTurtle, not having realized that they MUST say something … or be properly presumed to be “supporting the President”, from “debt” to drone …
Elizabeth Warren has a chance to come to office, clean … most other “Dems” are already terribly tarnished, if not “covered” with the worst of the crap.
We could, prolly, count on one hand those who are not, although I can’t lift a finger for anyone of the Dems at the moment, save in a gesture that might not be understood … somehow …
;~DW
“…I think we could get a countrywide settlement quickly…”
Morning coffee-spew…big time! :o)
Obama put the GOP back in business, For LOL
What makes OBAMA a better human being than Rick Perry?
Obama came up with the idea of cutting Social Security, Medicare, and Medicade
Obama saved the BUSH TAX CUTS, if he had done nothing the Bush Taxs cuts would have died
Obama gave Wall Street 16 trillion and he wants to cuts 3 trillion from the Poor,
Obama offers USA citizens 450 billion dollars? and USA citizens are suppose to be happy?
rckisok? would you rather have 450 billion or 16 trillion?
OBAMA just killed an American, without due process of USA law
I will asked you again what makes OBAMA a better human being than Rick Perry?
Don’t say that his wife shops at Target
You might want to turn in your tinkerbelle-fantasy card.
You may not believe in reality, but reality believes in you.
That is up to her. One might begin with the truth, rckisok.
I gather you are happy with Obama?
I am most decidely opposed … and, for your information, I did support him once, and encouraged many others to do likewise, NOT again.
DW
FDL only told the TRUTH!
Obama the trojan horse king and his fellow trojan horses, will reap what they have sown!
FDL did not force OBAMA to try to cut Social Security?
FDL did not tell OBAMA to kill an American Citizens without due process
FDL did not tell OBAMA to fill his WH with Wall Street Crooks
Obama and the trojan horse Dems brought the HELL they have coming!
And, just to be clear, Warren is respected, here, for what SHE has done and said, and owes Obama nothing … but the truth … which is, precisely, what she and EVERY politician OWES the rest of us, we, “the people”.
Do YOU understand?
“How does she distance herself from the person that put her on the national stage?”
I don’t think she will…which is why I’m not sending her any money. It will guarantee that she will lose.
and Obama “put her on the stage” by using her like a bass-plug-for-liberals/ casting and retrieving, over and over and over….
That she held still for it may be a character reference for you, but it’s not one for me. After it became clear that he wasn’t going to force an up-or-down vote for confirmation, nor was he going to put her in via the recess route, she should have held a presser and withdrawn. If she’d done that, she’d look a lot better.
I say again, if you think that democratic incumbents or challengers can win by hanging with Obama, then you need to tell us how he’s going to make himself attractive enough to the voters for that to happen.
“…and she owes Obama nothing…”
Boy-howdy, is THAT evermore the truth.
I support the Democratic party. I desperately want to see it reformed. But as human being I believe the alternative is intolerable! I ask what piece of progressive legislation placed on Obama’s desk has he not signed?
Mortgages stripped of legalese to the rescue! /snark
We are not consumers, we are citizens. Fewer neoliberals (e.g. Warren) please.
After it has been folded, spindled and mutilated.
Because having a Republican controlled House is working so well?
That’s Tinkerbelle. Cheeze, man, a little respect. And a little compassion for rckisok, who is one of the lost boys.
You rest your case on the argument that democrats “stayed home” rather than vote?
Your case doesn’t need resting, it needs a “rest” home.
Spin away, you sad dervish … no one here “buys” the “lesser evil” crap, and neither should you.
Obama have given himself the power, he calls it a “right”, to kill anyone, human beings, even American citizens, anywhere and anytime he wishes … without due process and in direct violation of the Rule of Law.
Do YOU understand?
A lot of Democrats hate OBAMA and all he stands for
However, a lot of Party Leaders don’t want Dems attacking “THE FIRST BLACK PRESIDENT”
Obama is getting a free pass in a lot of areas because he is “THE FIRST BLACK PRESIDENT” which I hate.
Elizabeth Warren and other Dems probably hate OBAMA ideas, but see no upside or political capital to be gain, by attacking “THE FIRST BLACK PRESIDENT”
Dems seeking re-election in 2012 will avoid OBAMA and embrace FDR to get re-elected, I don’t see any Dems seeking photo ops with OBAMA.
Markos from the Daily Kos, says “the first black president thing” is keeping DEM primary challengers away.
Tom Daschle hasn’t been in office since 2005.
Well let us start with Niggerhead!
He was the majority leader when he lost was my point.
What makes OBAMA better than Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, or Sarah Palin?
Obama wants to cut Social Security, Medicare, and Medicade
Obama loves the BUSH TAX cuts, he saved them for LOL
OBAMA gave Wall Street 16 trillion dollars and only wants to give 99% of USA citzens 450 billion
Obama kills USA citizens without due process of USA law
Rckisok? please list some things that make OBAMA a better choice than Rick Perry?
So which candidate running for President would have handled it differently and how? For the record it made me very uncomfortable as well!
You really want to use Daschle as an example of a “good” Democrat?
That’s up to you …
He is not a Republican! Is that not enough?
Cute but pointless!
Have you forgotten about 2008?
Obama did not tell Dems he wanted to cut Social Security
Obama did not tell Dems he loved the Bush Tax Cuts
Obama did not tell Dems like Bush he would kill USA citizens without due process of USA law
Obama did not tell Dems he would pass Mitt Romney Health Care Bill?
Obama lied his way into the WH
rckisok? did OBAMA tell you he wanted to cut Social Security in 2008?
I haven’t seen any evidence that he’s not a Republican. As my granny used to say “if it quacks like a duck…..”
Merely … “uncomfortable”?
That is “nice”, rckisok.
It is criminal behavior, un-Constitutional, against international law as well, and makes Obama … not a President, but the equivalent of a king when the Divine Right of Kings held sway.
Do YOU understand?
The comparison was made as response to my explanation of Reid’s reelection. Dashche was run of mill at best!
rckisoK really? Obama is not Republican?
What makes OBAMA a Democrat?
Is Obama going to campaign in 2012, about how he wants to cut Social Security, Medicare, and Medicade?
Is Obama going to campaign to Dems, about how he loves Wall Street Banks?”he gave them 16 trillion dollars, what debt crisis?” for LOL
Is Obama going to promote the idea of the USA PRESIDENT having the power to kill USA citizens without the due process of the law in 2012? ” like BUSH Obama hates the laws of the USA”
rckisok? do you think the points listed above will get Dems to vote for OBAMA?
or is OBAMA going to lie again, like he did in 2008?
Obama wants people to forget he brought up the idea of cutting social security? not going to happen
The GOP is going to use the Social Security issue against OBAMA in 2012! Obama sunk his own ship
rckisok? please jump off the TITANTIC OBAMA ASAP
Of all the truly criminal behavior in the world where literally millions have died and this is what you want to discuss!
You say how awful the Republicans are, but Obama gives them everything that they want … and refuses to hold the worst of them, Bush and Cheney, to ANY account, in fact, Obama has built upon the Bush/Cheney “foundation” and now “owns” the ediface, himself.
Do YOU understand?
How many of those millions is Obama responsible for … killing done in OUR name, yours and mine …
Do YOU understand?
Do YOU care?
do you think OBAMA supports Occupy Wall Street? yes or no
Do you think the followers of Occupy Wall Street are Dems voters or GOP voters?
rckisok? Obama and other Dems in DC, see the DEM party leaving them and following the DEMS of Wisconsin and the Occupy Wall Street movement.
the WINDS are blowing rckisok, and the DEMS winds are blowing away from OBAMA
did OBAMA come to Wisconsin to march with the UNIONS? No
I feel like I’m arguing with someone who is about 1 inch above the republican bottom feeders.
But, one more time, I’ll do it.
Your relying on what has made it to “his desk” is specious gibberish. All of the dirty work done on behalf of the corporate assholes was done FAR in advance of that.
He killed the public option, in the meetings he had with the health insurance robber barons.
He told Reid to kill the Dorgan amendment that would have provided for re-importing cheap generic drugs.
He told Pelosi to stuff the move by some good house dems that would have forced a floor vote to strip the Health Insurance industry of the exemption from our anti-trust laws. It was a guaranteed win for he and the democrats, at a time when he badly needed one. Instead, he sold us out.
He larded his administration with a bunch of Clinton retreads like Holder.
He kept Geithner and Bernancke, two of the architects of the financial fuck-ups.
He picked Bill Gates for his SecDef, from which vantage point, Gates could make pronouncements on how well Obama was doing, as he sustained the two clusterfucks.
He picked Alan Simpson to co-chair the catfood commission, from which vantage point Simpson could pimp the idea that Social Security was “a cow with 300 millioin tits”.
He picked Rahm Emanuel (Did you LIKE having the president’s chief of staff call you a “fucking retard”?) as CofS, and after an interim pick, chose William Daley, a gigantic corporatist shit, for his next CofS.
When Breitbart and Faux got after Sherrod for her “racism”, he pissed himself like a little puppy, and tried to force her to resign, instead of calling bullshit on them. It was disgusting to watch.
He’s kept the prison at Gitmo open…
He’s helped the GOP sustain the fatcat tax breaks, and, now that his ass is in the political fire, he’s making meaningless campaign speeches about going after those tax breaks. (Those speeches have to be a source of amusement for John Boehner, as he looks at the mayo jar with Obama’s political balls in it, sitting on his desk.)
I really could keep going for quite a while, but the bottom line is that Barack Obama has utterly squandered the best opportunity for making the changes that we so badly need, since Roosevelt was elected.
The huge difference being that Roosevelt USED the mandate he was given to make the changes, while Obama has sold his out for pennies on the political dollar.
Those progressive signings you’re talking about involved ending DADT, and a few other social advances. (As was posted on here, ending DADT was handed to him on a platter, and he tried to send it back to the kitchen, until a mini-firestorm on his head, broke out…)
To me, they were givens; something (just like closing the Gitmo prison) that he should have done the first month he was in office.
Now, IF he wanted to use them, he has no tools to work with. And the republicans aren’t going to lend him any. They own him. It’s just a matter of how soon they want to totally humiliate him. If they do it too soon, he could become a sympthetic figure, and they don’t want that.
I understand how some people just don’t want to look at the reality of what has happened after the enthusiasm and hope that we all had, after Obama was elected, but it’s long past time to let go of the notion of him as a reformer. We HAVE to start thinking about what’s best for progressives and for the party, and what’s best is that he retires so that the GOP won’t have him to point to in 2012, as they ask voters if they’d like another four years of Obama?
At this point, the people who are supporting him are a worse threat to a progressive agenda than are the republicans, themselves. You need to start dealing with that.
I understand the politics is still the art of possible and once again I ask what piece of Progressive legislation placed on Obama’s desk has he not signed? Thanks for discussion, got to go!
Oh, my – applauding. Well done.
I was all most gone but you are hallucinating if you think me solitary!
“…yet you say…”
THAT is what really pisses me off. The stay-the-course Obama supporters shake the GOP wingnut feardolls at us, and ignore the fact that Obama has done such miraculous rehab on the assholes.
Republicans represent conservative states, Democrats represent liberal states. Exceptions being liberal Republicans from liberal states and vice versa. If all the states voted Republican, the Republican party would be more liberal. It doesn’t seem to have anything to do with the parties anymore.
Winning is losing.
#wishing!
Worse than the Republicans. That is nuts!! Lieberman, Nelson, Lincoln and rest, you call them tools to work with? Really? If Democrats would have had the power in the Senate that they had in the House, we would not be having this discussion. If you think a man any man can make the changes you seem to want without the support of the House and Senate you are delusional.
a quick note re warren’s separation from obama
brown is already attacking warren for being to the left of obama
undoubtedly, brown & the cons think that is a devastating critique
i think brown is doing warren’s work for her
Heartening news! I desperately want to believe that voters will resonate with someone who tells it like it is. As an enigmatic candidate in a bellwether race, Ms. Warren could end up affecting political discourse across the country next November.
Several commentators suggested it would be bad news if she ran and lost. But what’s political capital for, if not to use it? If she loses the race but shapes thinking, we may all gain.
I agree…..this IS Massachusetts.
Why, you’re as thick as an anvil.
He HAD the House and Senate, for two fucking years. And did so little with them that the voters said:
“Don’t want to use the toys we gave you? Okay, we’ll take them back and give them to the republicans.”
Which, if we’re lunatic enough to let Obama run again, is going to happen again in 2012; only much worse.
And, I don’t see Warren running as Joan of Arc, and then losing, in blue Mass, as a plus. I want her to win, but to do that, she’s going to have to crawl out of the Obama train wreck…early and often.
The market has taken another nose dive today. Volatility, my ass…it’s a slow motion crash.Obama is going to lose, and despite protestations to the contrary, I think a lot of FDLers will be upset with the Romney presidency.
What has led you to believe the absurd nonsense that FDLers imagine that a Romney presidency will be much different from the Bush and Obama presidencies?
The whole point is to NOT reward Obama and the dems, to change the metric, and to continue to point out the royal trappings of each of these “Unitary” presidencies … that they torture, kill, and destroy with impunity … and the fact that BOTH the ds and the rs represent the same corporate structure, the “fictitious persons” so beloved by SCOTUS, the political class, which includes the media, and the wealthy … to the cost of genuine democracy, the Rule of Law, and the peace and lives of flesh and blood human beings all around the world …
And yes … it is a deliberate and intended crash, for the benefit, or so “they”, themselves, imagine, of the ruling class, a crash not merely of the “market”, but of civil society itself …
Oh, I won’t like a Romney presidency, but it won’t be as nauseating as rewarding Obama for his catastrophic term, and then having to eat another four years of “moderate” shit.
I should add; I think the point of another term for Obama is, as the lawyers say, “moot”, in that I don’t think he’s even going to try for one. He’s said, a couple of times, that he’s not obsessed with having two terms, and when the democrats in congress start looking at his ebola coattails, I think they’ll hold him to that.
I sure hope so.
The most terrifying thing about Obama is fact that he can govern as a fascist in the mold of George W. Bush and still maintain support from 80% of american “liberals”, like rckisok here. You might think rckisok is a troll, but unless the pollsters are all lying, people like him exist in large numbers.
For Fascism to work you need a charismatic leader who people will follow no matter how many laws they break. I don’t see Rick Perry or Mitt Romney as the kind of uniter who could pull that off. Obama, on the other hand, has probably 50 million or so “disaffecteds” just waiting to get back with him. They want to believe. Give them a reason, no matter how slight, and they’ll jump back on the hope and change bandwagon. Keep in mind: people still like Obama personally and his approval, while only 40%, is still way higher than any other washington politician.
Obama might be re-elected, then the economy might recover, and some other uniting event might occur, and his numbers could shoot back up. Way up. Then he’d have the political capital to destroy the country in ways that Rick Perry or Mitt Romney could only dream of.
Bush’s approval rating shot up to 90% after 9/11. If Obama ever got that high, he could destroy every liberal principal this country stands for with no opposition whatsoever.
Maybe so, but it’s counterintuitive here for a Repub to even presume to “remind” the machine about anything or other. A substantial and angry portion of the electorate is indeed looking for a left-of-Obama candidate for Senate. Well enough.
Yet I’m hoping it’s a horserace that’s scares the living s*** out of both sides on election eve, with surprises galore for all.
I’m not a native here, will go to bed on time, and will read about it later if that Senate seat turns out as a 1+ or 1- . Then it’s worthwhile. Otherwise, the most important votes in Mass will be the ballot questions, as usual, and it seems there will be a generous number of those.
That is, Warren will be most valuable if she is the 51st Dem.
Warren will s be the “most valuable”, maa8722, IF and only if, she speaks the truth and speaks that truth to and for the rest of us … who are not in the ruling classes …
I sincerely hope that she’s listening to this conversation … she needs to be doing so.
DW
Nate, I’ve seen similar polls…maybe, that one. I just do not believe that 80% of liberals are happy with Obama enough to say so in a poll.
OldGold is fond of putting up astoundingly happy numbers for Obama.
I ask the same questions I ask him:
Who paid for the poll?
Who took the poll?
Where was it taken?
When was it taken? Date? Time-of-day?
Give us the specifics of those, and we’ll talk.
I agree. But being the swing vote. . . savor that, too!
“I sincerely hope that she’s listening to this conversation…”
DW, I would bet a steak dinner that she is.
We’re probably the only blog that is having a good, healthy, debate about she and her candidacy, and what she needs to do to win. Everywhere else it’s all frabjous-day-Jeanne-d’Arc!.
It aint rocket science.
To win she needs to dump Obama and move left, in no uncertain terms.
Between them, Hillary and Obama have used up all the triangulation/bipartisan-goop that was in the closet. None left…and there shouldn’t be.
You get fifty honest and trustworthy Dems in there, maa, and Warren’s vote, in THAT case, would have some actual meaning. As it is, most Dem Senators aren’t worth a damn, not because I say so, but because their own actions over time have defined them as such.
Name me one, whom you consider to be anyhting other than a “stern-letter-writer” and a willing participant in the destruction of civil society and the “endless war” meme … two, if you’ve “got ‘em” …
DW
This is an astute column by Ben Feller. In it, he makes the point, a very good one, I think, that Obama really needs the repubs to pick a solid front-runner. The longer they wait the easier it is for them to make the election all about him.
http://apnews.myway.com//article/20111003/D9Q52QGG3.html
I’m sure they know this, and it’s just one reason that “the goat rodeo” (thanks, someone… :o) ) is probably going to continue for months and months.
There’s really too many polls to list… the major pollsters such as gallup, ppp, etc, all show him having high support with liberals, but also the university and newspaper conducted polls show the same thing…
and anyone can conduct a telephone poll, all you need is a phone bank and some callers… the scientific process for how to conduct a telephone poll are well established, and while there’s certainly some debatability about the methods…
the margin of error due to methodological errors is higher than the stated margin of error due to statistical flukes, but still the margin of error is not going to be something absurdly high like +-30 points, so it’s very clear that Obama has a supermajority of self-identified “liberals” behind him.
I’m not enough of a conspiracy theorist to think that it would be possible to rig every single poll that reaches the media. I don’t think we’re that far gone yet.
Not sure about a conspiracy, but all those pollsters know perfectly well how to skew their results.
Back in the early primary fight, Hillary’s people (always trying to erase the dreadful “liberal” stain) were carrying around “solid” polls that showed that she had strong support among republican women.
It was, of course, bullshit, and I’d have loved to see the specifics that I asked about.
By the way, I don’t know about Gallup, but PPP, whom you pointed out, is for hire. I tend to think that if Obama’s people or any “centrist” democratic group, commissioned a poll from them, or for that matter any other group, they’d get results that would make them want to hire PPP again. Numbers showing that Obama was losing liberal support would, I believe, not do that.
Very astute post.
Uh, oh. I’ll have to strain.
The problem may have to do with the environment. I’d apply that to everything from child rearing to the Senate.
In the Senate’s case it’s not about innate sliminess of individual actors there. Unfortunately the individuals are allowed, or forced, to go onstage heavily cloaked. There are unavoidable deals to be struck, and that dish of milk turns sour. Conflict of interest is unavoidable.
Specifically, trading votes back and forth within a caucus is, I think, quite evil to the extent any Senator, Dem A, has to safely support a measure he/she doesn’t believe in simply to cover for Dem B, a supporter who can’t afford the heat back home.
Gelding the filibuster would help, and there’d be fewer places to hide. Also an inconvenient plurality of 51 scant votes would tend to focus attention. Senators might often have to mount the reconciliation horse stark naked to get anything done. Certainly none would be able to hide within their own party.
There would still be some inappropriate deals struck across the aisle, but one might expect the risks of getting caught, plus pay back committments to the “enemy” (metaphorically) would serve as a disincentive. I’m not suggesting the opponents never drink beer together, but on the important stuff they need to be expected to dig in their heels.
Anyhow Warren will be a good senator if she really wants it, but I’m still looking for a cliffhanger.
I don’t think honest to goodness sexist votes are fashionable anymore. Substance should be at the forefront, especially nowadays.
There’s also the fact that Scott Brown is the strongest imaginable GOP Senate candidate. If the GOP in other states focused on nominating candidates as personally likeable and politically moderate as Brown, the Democrats would get wiped out from coast to coast. But for the Tea Partiers, the GOP would have picked up Senate seats in Nevada and Delaware last year and they only kept Florida because Charlie Crist ran as an independent instead of switching parties.