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Democrats and Democratic leaning independents are not enthusiastic about voting in the upcoming Presidential election according to Gallup polling. There is some very bad news for President Obama and the rest of the Democratic Party when it comes to the issue of base engagement in the upcoming election.
On the other hand the Republicans remain relatively enthusiastic about voting in 2012.
According to Gallup, the gap between the Democrats’ level of enthusiasm compared to the Republicans’ level of enthusiasm is the largest it has been in a decade. A large enthusiasm gap is a bad thing in any political environment, but it’s especially problematic for the Obama campaign, which depended on high enthusiasm to get large turnout numbers from infrequent voters groups, such as young adults in 2008.
After the 2010 Democratic wipeout there was some hope among Democrats that the 2012 Congressional elections wouldn’t be as bad because having Obama on the ballot would inspire his 2008 surge voters to come out again. At this point though, it looks as if Obama’s ability to increase base enthusiasm or turnout is highly limited.
I also don’t think Obama’s habit of berating his base and telling them to “stop complaining” during the worst economic downturn in generations is going to close the enthusiasm gap anytime soon.
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“…it looks as if Obama’s ability to increase base enthusiasm or turnout is highly limited.”
Obama can’t lose what he never had to begin with.
People join a political party because they identify at least to some extent with the party’s core values as expressed in the party platform. Obama can’t abandon most of those core values fast enough. Is it any wonder that the rank and file is not on board the Obama bus?
The beatings (on the base) will continue until enthusiasm improves.
Actually, they’re under it…
Last sentence: Does one say not entirely necessary to remark? Or, Goes without saying….
Such a catch22, indeed, b/c O’s base does not agree with his efforts, and if he starts preaching a change in direction, NO one will believe him. Has anyone fallen so far so fast? I can still recall the Inaugural excitement and people I knew who traveled so far to be there. The times they have changed; will be changing again…We will have to see.
Heh, I was just about to say that…
Shocking development.
We need to get to the bottom of this. Inquiring minds wanna know.
As always, this is over a full year out. The conditions will change as late October in 2012 rolls around. There seem to becoming a clearer contrast to the President and the GOP.
Locally, it is disastrous for many people in a lot of states, especially GOP governors. We are in WI going to have a tough, but deserved battle, recalling Waker in Jan 2012. OH will be seen in just one month with SB2. FL is having some problems with Scott. IN if the news gets out about selling the highway system to UAR will not be popular (even though it is not as bad, Chicago will have to deal with selling parking meters to J.P. Morgan). Then there are a few problems in PA, ME, NJ (getting better for Christy, but not great). I also think there will be some backlash as we see today with SC and their governor.
When most of these people say they want less government, and if the media plays out all they have changed to the intrusion of government and people’s rights, there will be a lot of questions if they are really doing thing for the better.
Lastly, their is the congressional house, and saying that RELIEF HELP must be offset with cuts will change a few minds. Oh, let us not forget, Social Security, Medicare, & Medicaid. That is still playing tough here in WI when it comes to Ryan and his district. Sen. Feingold and others are still a strong player here.
indeed, all they need is to be told to stop complaining about their lack of jobs.
To echo Robert Scheer, whoever wins on Election Day 2012, we lose.
Personally I’m surprised the numbers are that high. Any bets high information voters are leaving Obama in other words those most likely to vote Dem and low information voters those least likely to vote are still supporting Obama.
On the GOP side high information voters I bet won’t support a crazy candidate and that includes Sarah, Michelle, Perry and Ron.
GOP low information voters however will only support those candidates if none of them make VP then the GOP is running Mitt against Obama. Mitt’s ideas suck worse than O and Mitt can’t excite GOP low information voters.
There is no evidence that Perry while crazy can excite low information voters so putting him the Corporate GOP’s choice among the crazy contenders won’t help Mitt.
I seem to remember Obama was right there alongside Ryan with modifications to Social Security,Medicare & Medicaid….You don’t remember the grand bargain do you ?
Yes, a Democratic Prez supporting cuts to “entitlements”.it’s not only the GOP,the Democratic Party elites think there should be “shared sacrifice” too.
Notice graph one is shaped like a Perch..sit on it?
Graph two is sorta like a lobster no offense to our lobster.
Promise them anything but give them a whoppin. To the woodshed with you whiners. G)
This is a race to see who can win the people who will vote anyway thats high information voters for us but we don’t like O. And low information voters for the GOP who will fall asleep if Mitt runs. If Mitt picks a crazy candidate he frightens moderate voters more than he gains low information GOP voters.
The GOP’s best plan push the Crazy, the Hate and hold onto the South and Western States.
It is very disheartening to have no good choice. I am unwilling to give Obama another chance, he has been an unmitigated disaster and I feel very foolish to have been taken in the first time. I was excited to vote for a young (relatively) minority but those factors are less important this time. I want someone who will bring change, real change, not soundbite change.
Just can’t take any of this seriously. I am preparing looking for a good canvas tent that can survive weather. Growing food and making bread. Maybe start a trading post.
With their support for union rights and basic employee benefits, and recall efforts against Republicans (State Senators and Governor Walker), Wisconsin Democrats are moving in an opposite direction from the national party. Briefly stated, the Wisconsin Democrats are still real Democrats as we have known them, and the national Democrats are not.
Whistling past the graveyard doesn’t help when the DLC zombies done et Obama’s brains and replaced them with source code written by ALEC…
Can we move the USA capital to Madison and Give the Veal pen the old heave ho?
I’m surprised the poll numbers for 2000 (Gore v Bush) are even worse than the most recent numbers. It doesn’t make sense to me.
By Gallup couching this poll in terms of “enthusiasm for the coming election versus previous elections”, it ignores the elephant in the room. It deflects attention away from the reason for the lack of enthusiasm (Obama and Democrats who have deceived their supporters).
When is some polling outfit going to run a poll asking Democratic voters if they want different candidates, non-corporate candidates, running in the Democratic Party?
“It’s time for the progressive whiners to recognize the past is the past and to look to the future. We can do it if we work together.
Um, John, Mitch, Tim … was that okay?”
I think that might be explained by this – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BAx6Ib81Y4
I was never enthusiastic over BO Plenty. I read his books and stories. A man seeking approval from the powerful pulled the wool over the easily duped. I was not fooled as my comments will show. American politics is down to the old sales which pitch…would you rather Nightmare on Elm Street or Jason.
Well it appears that from GW Bush we jumped out of the frying pan into the fire. But serious Obamabots have a encyclopedia of excuses….Like “The devil made me do it”.
Looking at the chart the enthusiasm gap is right back where it was prior to the onset of Bush, right after we all got 8 years of Clinton.
Let’s take it from the top:
He does what he said he wouldn’t
He doesn’t what he said he would
He yaks incessantly. IMO, because he’s finally gotten to a place where no one can tell him to shut up and sit down. His colleagues in the Illinois senate pegged him as someone who liked to hear himself talk, but they had the means to put a stop to it. Lucky them.
I don’t see O saying, “I shall not seek, nor will I accept…” anytime soon. He’s busy raising $1 Billion or so for his reelection. I long ago called him a preening narcissist with little or no political conviction, but he does NOT want to be a one-term president so I can’t see him quitting no matter what. (He’s thinks he’s ready for his close-up, Mr. DeMille.)
Reelection strategy…turn on the red terrorist warning lights and declare a National emergency. No problem.
Is this really surprising when the Democratic Party has no one in the Presidential race for 2012?
I think there may be elements of something ‘Democratic Party-esque’ in parts of Wisconsin and elsewhere, but it may be open to debate.
Thanks marco. A good laugh is welcome more than ever these days.
Jonathan Turley writes in the LA Times today: “In time, the election of Barack Obama may stand as one of the single most devastating events in our history for civil liberties. Now the president has begun campaigning . . . but he is likely to find many civil libertarians who simply are not buying.”
So there is yet another no-enthusiasm group.
Enthusiasm gap – It’s an Obama gap. He has done more damage to the Democratic brand than any other leader. His political advisers are crap.
Indeed, but wasn’t O just the exclamation point on the Democratic brand?
The Democrats won the Presidency on hopes they would be to the Left of Republicans. Instead, they came out for Slavery in Bahrain, Lynching in Pakistan and Yemen and Somalia, a War to steal Libya’s Oil and decimate its Black population: The Democrats are way too far Right to expect any enthusiasm: Most Right-wing enthusiasm goes to the Republicans: There’s not much left for the Democrats.
“…actually, they’re under it.”
Big, bitter, black-humor smile… :o)
I can’t wait to vote, but that’s because I’m going to be a Blue Republican this year and vote in the Republican primary for Ron Paul, the only antiwar candidate running in our one party (Dem/Repub) system.
Gee, I don’t know – wasn’t there a famous speech where FDR called people that voted for him a bunch of f%^king idiots? No? Clinton? No? Reagan? No? Darn!
Yeh and my Senator Amy Klobuchar is one of them. Her father sent out an e-mail making an appeal to everyone to give her money before the Fed deadline on Sept 30, He said he was proud that she does not “retreat to party lines” but reaches across the isle to do whats best for Minnesota. Heard that one before??? These people just don’t get it. “Give us money and work and vote for us but we won’t adhere to you principles or beliefs”. I think she should ask the Republicans for a contribution.
Could have not said it better! good one!
In 2008 the trojan horse Dems won the White House, House, and Senate
and what did the Dem Base Get?
More OBAMA/BUSH war
More OBAMA/Bush Tax Cuts
More attacks on the Middle Class
The only miracle here is the DEM Ethusiam Gap is still above 10%
My favorite comment on this subject
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnzK9mw56Pc
Im just waiting for the real liberal that Nadar and West are going to put up and Im voting for him/her. I won’t vote for Goldman Such’s tool, Obama. Not a chance. If you are for Occupy Wall Street, you can’t be for the GS team running the Obama/bush economic nightmare and JP Morgan that has privatized TANF and food stamps. Don’t forget it’s Goldman Such’s that wants SS so bad they’ll do anything. And I’ll take any odds that their bee-otch, Obama, will deliver in the Lame Dick and actually grin while doing it. Obama is totally loving his power and he is totally loving belittling the little people. Who needs a base when you’ve got Goldman Sachs for a Sugar Daddie. Scolding the black caucus, looking out for the most exploited, like children… WTF. Obama’s head is so swelled it should make records.
yes, well, we seem to have a decent candidate gap.
You just have to marvel at the stupidity of Obama and the DNC.
“Who could have anticipated” that if you crap on your base and call them vile names, renege on every campaign promise you made, make deals with corporate enemies of Democratic values, surround yourself with bankers and hedge fund guys, and just generally behave like a Republican jerk, that Democratic voters will have an “enthusiasm gap”?
This zombie thinking reveals Obama and those surrounding him have NO brains and no concept of what life is like for “ordinary Americans.”
We should all just love him and “be enthusiastic” because . . . . well, I guess because he “deserves it.”
Maroons.
Ed was ranting about this tonight. He sounded like Barry. STFU and vote for the D’s or else. Some choice u get privatization with the R’s and cuts withe the D’s take ur pick suckers.
Yeah. Who coulda’ seen this comin’?! :)
I’m really disappointed in MSNBC. They ran off Olbermann and Uygur, and the remaining evening hosts might as well be paid employees of the DNC. And yes, I’m looking at you, Rachel.
The Democratic brand is the functional equivalent of KMart, once a highly-regarded corporation that was run into the ground by insular management and wound up in bankruptcy court.
Barack Obama is governing exactly as Joe Lieberman would have. Short Ride was voted out of the party, largely to the credit of FDL.
I note that Jane has not yet declared all out war on Obama. I think that the calculus of the current administration is roughly right, to the extent that while many on the left may not bother to vote, we aren’t yet actively and visibly working against him. Oct 6 may change that. I hope so.
I was still working precincts in 1994. I didn’t bother to vote for Clinton/Gore in 1996 (b/c of the policies, not the rest of it). I didn’t vote for Gore/Lieberman in 2000 (because Gore was acting like a DLCer. I followed Michael Moore and voted for Nader).
A big part of the reason I am angry is that I thought the flame-out of 2000 had suppressed the DLC ConservaDem wing of the Democratic Party.
If I wanted a Republican president, I would vote for one. It is amazing how long it has been since a liberal president slept in the White House. Maybe it never actually happens.
Sigh.
I think the plot shows exactly what happens when Democrats suck up to Wall Street and other big money. The country is hungry for a bit of idealism.
I still receive mailings for Obama’s re-election. Last couple I just trashed. Did not open the envelope at all.
I agree with lobster: “If I wanted a Republican president, I would vote for one.”
I haven’t watched Rachel in a long time. Boring. I can be bought but I can’t be bored.
Completely incompetent. Worked with a 20 year Kmart manager–laid off, of course. Chapter and verse.
Reminds me of 1980 when Jimmy Carter gave his “malaise” speech. Like Jimmy, Obama moved too far right in his first term and had to run for re-election in a bad economy. When the base is disillusioned, the incumbent is screwed cause they stay home. The only way they get enthused is by a primary challenge and unless its successful, well, you get someone like Ronald Regan (think Chris Christy).