Since the 2010 Republican wave election, voters have started turning against the Congressional Republicans and are now more inclined to vote for Democratic candidates for Congress. According to the latest poll from Gallup, among registered voters Democrats now lead the generic Congressional ballot. From Gallup:
The seven-percentage-point edge for Democratic congressional candidates, nationally, contrasts with ties or Republican leads in most Gallup polls leading up to the 2010 midterm elections. However, the Democratic advantage is not as large as those they enjoyed in the 2006 and 2008 congressional election cycles — each of which produced a Democratic majority in Congress. The Democrats averaged a 10-point lead over Republicans among registered voters in the year prior to the 2008 elections and an 11-point advantage leading up to the 2006 elections, with individual polls showing them ahead by as much as 23 points.
Because Republican leaning individuals tend to turn out in higher percentages, Democrats need a strong majority among registered voters to win even a slim majority among people who actually show up to vote.
The numbers would indicate at this particular moment Democrats would likely make serious gains in the House but probably not enough to take back control. Still, there is a long time until the election and a lot can happen. For example, once the Republican Party has a Presidential nominee that individual could play a significant role in shaping voters’ impressions of the entire party.
The good news for Democrats is that Gallup and Public Policy Polling (PPP) both confirm that since the 2010 election the electorate has been trending steadily away from the Congressional GOP. If this continues for the next year, there is at least the possibility that Nancy Pelosi could take back the Speaker’s office.