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The bad economy, Democrats’ terrible political handling of health care reform and an unusually high number of positions up for election allowed a wave of Republican governors to be swept into office across the country last year. Yet this wave of success, and the poor economy which enabled it, could become a real political headache for the GOP in 2012 as the try to take the White House.
In most of the countries biggest and important swing states (Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa) there are currently new Republican governors that have poor job approval numbers.
- Florida Gov. Rick Scott: 29 approve – 57 disapprove (Quinnipiac 5/17-23)
- Ohio Gov. John Kasich: 33 approve – 56 disapprove (PPP 5/19-22) 38 approve – 49 disapprove (Quinnipiac 5/10-16)
- Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker: 43 approve – 54 disapprove (PPP 5/19-22)
- Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder: 32 total positive – 60 total negative (EPIC-MRA 4/27-5/3)
- Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad: 41 approve – 45 disapprove (PPP 4/15-17)
*The big exception to this trend is the swing state of Virginia where Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell remains popular.
While Branstad’s numbers aren’t terrible, and the Republicans could, in theory, afford to write-off Wisconsin and Michigan, there really isn’t a good potential path for a GOP victory without winning Ohio and/or Florida.
This means whoever the Republican nominee is during the general election, they are going to be making dozens of campaign stops in these states while also trying to heavily distance themselves from the taint of their party’s unpopular governors. That is going to be a real political headache for the campaign.
With Scott and Kasich so deeply unpopular, probably the only way their numbers would get to a semi-acceptable is if there were strong economic improvement in their states. Of course, for that to happen it would require a strong national recovery, and the GOP nominee would face the much bigger problem that strong growth would likely make Obama unbeatable anyway.
18 Comments
Walker despite getting Weeks of day after day protests has the highest approval ratings of the Anti Union GOP Governors? This smells Funny
Also Indiana is normally a Red State its one on the top ten biggest electoral vote States and the GOP Governor there is not to popular right now either. If the GOP does not take Indiana then they have to take Florida and Ohio.
Also Maine has a GOP Governor who wants to repeal child labor laws that guy deserves extra Evil Points.
I am quite sure their anti Union Free Market economic policies will attract scores of jobs to their states …once their state workers wages are below Mexico’s.
Once Wisconsin Worker’s wages are below China’s Wisconsin will have full employment as Apple moves their Ipod factory their.
Suicide Nets on buildings in Wisconsin might even become a reality tv tourist attraction!
Scott Walker’s Wisconsin will blow away Sarah Palin’s Alaska if they start hunting humans.
New Jersey is not looking good for the GOP either I think our biggest worry this election is Computer voting.
Why is it only the GOP that finds 7,000 votes after an election in Wisconsin for the Supreme Court?
Why did Dems give up Ohio and Florida when they ran against Bush?
Obama will have to win in Ohio and Florida because voters want him in the White House rather than the GOP candidate,not because Kasich and Scott have low approval ratings. One thing has nothing to do with the other.
When does Governor Quitter boil the bunny? That’s about the only thing Rethug govs haven’t done. So far.
Branstad is more popular than the other GOP Governors because Iowa’s agricultural economy is booming.
This will impact the GOP Iowa Caucus contest by reducing the potentcy of the economic issues. As a result the Iowa Caucus campaign will be a wretched race to the bottom on the social issues.
The winner will be the GOP contestant who earns Bob Vander Plaats endorsement. He heads a well financed and highly organized group within Iowa’s GOP that successfully ousted 3 Iowa Supreme Court Justices in the 2010 election in retribution for the Court’s decision legalizing same-sex marriages.
The GOP Iowa Caucus process is going to be ugly.
Walker should be at 0% .
Why are the comments section of some of the post on this topic being shut down.
You also have to consider that Scott Walker (WI) may have a recall in early 2012. If the recalls of the senate is positive in July (12 th), then the recall of Walker is very doable. We now have a little less then half of the signatures we need and it is only the end of May/beginning of June. Plenty of time to get the rest. We got (3) senator names already on the ballot in July with a potential of (6) after they verify the rest of the names signed.
Add to that the ballot initiative on the ballot in Ohio to reverse SB 5 was gathered in the shortest time feasible. Maine and Michigan are not far behind having the electorate overturn their draconian acts.
I thought that the 2010 election was all about JOBS, it doesn’t seem to be on their minds nor the National GOP mindset.
This really is the issue for me when it comes to the election. The economy isn’t going to exhibit strong growth. There isn’t another bubble to reinflate. If the economy sucks, it depends on the Republican candidate and exactly what the economic discourse is like around that time.
Frankly, I think weak economic conditions will dominate. There is also the issue of the difference between partisan voting patterns at the state and federal level. People are more likely to ticket split between levels of government rather than between office at the same level. The governors thing will be an issue, but that doesn’t preclude voters going for a GOP presidential candidate and voting against state level GOPers. And economic matters are more pertinent than the optics of who the governor is where.
None of this is meant as criticism. I think it’s a real condition that the candidate will have to face, but given the trajectory of the economy as I perceive it the GOP governors problem is a peripheral issue.
Pretty sure the GOP will take Indiana. that is a really red state. Went for O last time but that is a clear anomaly.
I worry about the debt problem. If that is not resolved it could cause a lot of economic damage and the voters will be looking to blame someone. Not sure who wins that one.
is this the reelect obama kickoff. I guess Bush/Cheney policies are ok as long as done by a democrat. what a sad state of affairs.
Obama as the favorable alternative to a GOPer like Mitt, T-Paw, etc; boy, what a fucking disaster.
Hello, third party and/or primary challenger.
Bingo! I was talking about this very same subject yesterday. It seems we very much agree. The longer the Republicans stay the bigger their unpopularity! Most should be well over 60% by next year. That should make those states STRONG blues states for a very long time.
We need as many progressives in winnable states as possible. Thats the only way the Whitehouse will listen.
“Florida Gov. Rick Scott: 29 approve – 57 disapprove (Quinnipiac 5/17-23)”
Gov. Rick Scott Sucks and now Florids is stuck with him….? A recall effort would be a positive step… sigh