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The American people think homosexuality is much more common than it actually is, according to a new Gallup poll. On average, Americans think that a quarter of their fellow Americans are gay or lesbian. 
I’m curious if this large overestimation could be having an affect on the political fight for marriage equality. The poll found young people, liberals and low income Americans tend to assume homosexuality is more common than the rest of the population.
While I think it is unlikely a person’s assumption about just how many Americans are gay or lesbian would change anyone’s opinion about whether denying them marriage equality is morally right, I could easily see it having an impact on how important people feel the issue is.
It is possible that the belief a huge segment of the population (instead of a relatively smaller percentage) is being denied their right to marry is making straight supporters (and those who oppose) more likely to take action on the issue, such as by donating money, volunteering, going to vote on a ballot measure, making it a factor in candidate selection, etc.
23 Comments
Interesting.
On the one hand, it could be seen as encouraging – if one thinks that a lot of their brethren are of a certain group, you’d think they’d have pause at marginalizing it.
On the other hand, the truly homophobic might have the opposite reaction. But that’s an ugly thought, at least for me.
Do you have an age breakdown on this poll?
Bear in mind that a lot of nominally “straight” persons have had same-sex encounters, especially during their teens and twenties. So the hard lines of demarcation between straight and gay are turning out not to be so hard and fast. (I imagine that those straight persons who’ve actually had same-sex encounter and who didn’t exactly feel traumatized about it, are among the straight persons more likely to back marriage equality.)
If more older less likely to be Pro Gay Rights people believe these numbers then you get Gay Panic the GOP seems to want to demonize Gays this election rather than talk about jobs.
If more younger people believe these numbers that might account for younger voters being more Pro Gay Rights.
Next Question in an age, race, income level, religion taken into account poll how many people think Gay Rights for or against is more important than jobs?
Who ever talks about creating jobs and is believed by voters can likely get whatever they want.
If People were to think Sarah Palin could bring them jobs her stance on Gay Rights might be over looked. Thats the bad scenario.
On the other hand if Obama were to create 5 million good paying jobs and he were to support Gay Rights:)
Very good point that could explain these numbers I wish I knew more about Stats to discuss the nitty gritty behind these very surprising numbers.
We need numbers on how many Gays the very anti Gay Rights people think that there are.
Even if the percentage is only 1% that’s 3 million people being denied their Constitutional rights to equal treatment under the law – percentages shouldn’t determine the justice given to a group.
true dat.. we all are citizens and rights give to us by the constitution, not just for some but ALL citizens.
Back in my college days, studies indicated the number that self identified as homosexual (IIRC) cross culturally was between 6 and 10 percent. I wonder if the numbers have changed over the last 20 years?
I would like to see a poll of self-identified LGBT Americans, asking them how many straight Americans they think support their full legal equality, including marriage equality.
On the other hand, this poll does prove We Are Everywhere.
Even where you don’t think We Are!
I think what it could be is that the question itself was confusing. The question asks how many do you think are homosexual or gay/lesbian, which question doesn’t make sense…unless people are interpreting it to include bisexuals, experimenters, etc.
Also with those most opposed to homosexual marriage, they don’t believe there is such a thing as homosexuality in the first place, so these types of polls wouldn’t affect them. This also explains why the more conservative, the lower the percentage estimate.
A had never thought about it. But if I had been polled I would have answered less than 5%. I am an old, straight, working class white guy. I have known quite a few gay men, some acquaintances, some friends. In my youth I worked for a gay band leader and was introduced to the gay community in every town we played. My second wife was fond of costume parties, drag shows and gay bars. Still, 5% seems about right. How do people get the idea that one in four of us is gay or lesbian? What’s up with that?
These results are actually heartening. Many people are probably making estimates based on their own social circles, which could indicate that social circles in general are expanding.
Acually, homosexuality is much more common than idiots who take polls realize or want to admit. But the largest category underestimated is bisexuality. And most people don’t give a shit either way.
So what are the actual numbers…?
Speaking as a 66 year-old gay activist, Kinsey 6 and Man of the World these figures UNDERESTIMATE the actual situation.
As you all should know (but I’ve no doubt far too many of you don’t) Homosexuality is registered entirely on a “voluntary” verbal basis. “He/She says that he/she is homosexual,” the press invariable declares. No member of the media DARE state that (to give but one example) Anderson Cooper is gay because he hasn’t “said so himself” by goin on Ellen with the Lobster bib and everything. Therefore he can tote his (scrumptious) boyfriend Ben around — even to Mardi Gras this year where they rode a float and with Andy Cohen threw beads to the crowd — and NO ONE in the “mainstream” would dare to state the bloody obvious.
Whybhe behaves this way I leave to the amateur shrinks among you.
Therefore when you get a survey like this filled with people ACTUALLY SAYING THAT THEY’RE GAY you can be damend sure there’s an equal amount who are gay but are as quite as the grave (or Anderson Cooper)about it.
People DO give a shit (see remarks on Anderson Cooper above)
2%. For years a 10% figure got thrown around a lot, but I believe that was from a study that said 10% of the population had a homosexual experience. People misinterpreted that to mean 10% were homosexual.
The American people always prove to be more clueless than I give them credit for being. 35% think more than 25% of the population is gay? Don’t they pay attention to the world? Obviously not.
But how do so many have so many homosexual friends? Are homosexuals so friendly that they have an unusually large number of heterosexual friends?
Maybe it has something to do with the greater proliferation of homosexual characters and personalities on television in the last decade.
Don’t YOU pay attention to the world? It’s gayer than you’d like to believe.
One of the many things this poll doesn’t address, is regional density. Because of varying degrees of gay presence and “outness” varies from not only between urban and rural, but also concentrations of community within large cities. I would think that a person in SF would guess a higher percentage than, say an Iowa farmer.
Good observation. Americans everywhere live most of their leisure time with the TV, so maybe my regional speculations are moot.
LOL. This strongly reminds of the ’70′s and onward, when overt racism was evaporating. Many defensive whites suddenly… Well, “some of [their] best friends [were] black.”
nonpartisanliberal is right.
The usual number that is accepted by the experts is between 2% and 3%. i.e. 538 gave that number. The 10% originated in an old Kinsey report, and was an estimate that included other issues.
And now I am going to speak from the point of view of a born and raised Southern Baptist kid that is as straight as a plumb line. Most the “attempted encounters” that were thrown my way, when I was young and before time and life beat me up some, were from aggressive older gays on the prowl, so my thoughts were that there were just TOO MANY of these guys. At least for my comfort level! In some places, I started keeping a close watch out, and just avoided certain types of people or groups as a precaution. As I got older and bigger I had a lot less trouble.
My oldest son, also straight, has said he had the same problems while living in Atlanta, and I joked to his mother (not him) that I could understand that because of the curls my son had in his hair. I always had a very short haircut and had no curls at all. I fear what would have happened if I had my son’s curly hair and wore it longer. Another point is that certain towns like Atlanta, for sure, seem to have higher percentages of gays.
Anyway my real point here is that perhaps people think there are many more gay people than they are, because some Gays establish a noticeable presence that bothers straight people who become uncomfortable, so they always assume that there are more than there is.
On the issue of civil unions and marriages, I go along somewhat with the French notion, that most unions should be “civil” and “marriages” are the provenance of the church. Both have equal standing in the law. I understand that in France the trend is toward civil unions and the percentage of “marriages” is falling below 50%. The young people especially like this state of affairs.