Republican Gov. Scott Walker has been steadily making himself less popular in Wisconsin, so much so that he is now potentially vulnerable to a recall campaign, which could theoretically be launched six months from now. From PPP polling:
43% of voters now approve of the job [Scott] Walker is doing to 54% who disapprove. When PPP polled the state in late February it was 46% of voters approving to 52% disapproval. Walker’s numbers now are virtually identical to where they were before with Democrats and Republicans but with independents he’s seen his popularity continue to decline from a 45/53 approval spread to a 40/56 one.
Voters split evenly in February at 48% on the question of recalling Walker but now the needle has moved towards bare majority support for removing him early from office. 50% say they would support a recall to 47% who are opposed. That Walker’s disapproval is 54% but the support for recall is only 50% shows there are still some voters who dislike him but wouldn’t go so far as to support removing him from office, but there aren’t many.
Although voters are pretty evenly divided on whether they would support a recall there’s less doubt about who they would vote for if there actually was a recall election. They say they would pick [ Russ] Feingold over Walker by a 52-42 margin and [Tom] Barrett over him by a 50-43 spread.
The important numbers from the poll are that, if the recall actually happened, a Democrat would stand a really good chance of winning the election. There is no point in and little energy for launching a major recall effort unless there is a very good chance the incumbent will be replaced.
While it is helpful to any potential recall campaign that a majority would support the effort, majority support isn’t strictly necessary. All that is really needed is a sufficiently large pool of voters that would support a recall so the campaign would have a reasonable chance contacting enough supporters to get the required number of signatures, which is 25 percent of the total vote in the last election.