Tweet
(source: wikipedia)
With less than a week until the the federal elections in Canada, the left wing New Democratic Party is experiencing an almost unprecedented 11-point surge in the polls. (Don’t be fooled by the traditional American use of the word “liberal,” the Liberal Party is a centrist party and the NDP is to their left.) From the Star:
A “seismic shift” among voters has vaulted the NDP to second place, just five points behind the Conservative front-runners while the Liberals are falling further behind, a new poll reveals.
With less than a week to go in the campaign, Jack Layton is riding a wave of popular support for the NDP not seen in two decades, said Jaideep Mukerji, vice-president of Angus Reid Public Opinion.
A new Angus Reid poll done in partnership with the Toronto Star and La Presse puts Stephen Harper’s Conservatives at 35 per cent, the NDP close behind at 30 per cent, the Liberals at 22 per cent, the Bloc Québécois at 7 per cent and the Green Party at 5 per cent.
Since Canada uses a single-member district, “first past the post” election system, like we mostly do, even a relatively minor change in overall popular vote can result in a disproportionately massive increase or decrease in the number of seats actually won.
NDP is polling so well, it is possible they will, for the first time ever, lead a government in Canada.
Perhaps ironically, if the election results in a NDP-Liberal coalition government, it could likely result in ending the “first past the post” electoral system in Canada. As the party that traditionally came in third place, the “first past the post” system has for years systematically disadvantaged the NDP, causing them to win far fewer seats than their relative share of the popular vote. As a result, the NDP developed a strong position in favor of proportional representation.
And now that the Liberal Party has dropped to third place, they may find it in their best interests to push for reform, as well. If not the Liberals face the possibility of their party rapidly losing power and getting caught in a third-place status that is very hard to get out of.
This kind of dynamic often is the cause for electoral reform in democracies. A major party that benefited from the unfairness of the old system decides to embrace election reform only when faced with the possibility of the same systematic unfairness suddenly and seriously hurting them.
34 Comments
I want to stress I said “possible” NDP could lead a government, I don’t want people to think I’m actually predicting it.
Sounds like they need ‘instant runoff’, too.
Canada is to the Left of us already I wonder what a government Canada calls Left will be like? How do the Canadians feel about American Immigrants?
Ireland went Left recently, Bolivia, Venezuela etc between Bush neglecting South America in favor of Iraq and Bush’s economic policy destroying Europe, Tunisia, Egypt etc we might say the Bush/Obama legacy internationally might be Change they Sure as Hell did not want.
We need score cards to keep up I want to see Monica Crowley on McLaughlin try and take credit for all the change that is occurring and say George Bush did this like he really intended to do this and that George and Monica really think its a good thing.
I think its a good thing. I think its a direct result of Bush and Obama continuing Bush’s policies…Bush’s failed policies.
the more that the First World economies talk austerity, the more likely that Left of Center parties will gain power in their countries. Everyone with a pulse in the G8 knows the banks cannot be trusted.
So the Undead run the Banks, the Governments and the Media? That explains allot…the Lake can never have to many Undead jokes in my opinion.
I assume Moody’s is going to raise Canada’s interest rate rating Thursday?
true that TCU… the Undead do rule, after all, and television has hypnotized the masses better than flouridation of water, with LSD added, ever could.
Vampire Squid = Goldman Sachs
Allan Greenspan is an evil version of Grampa Munster
Timmy! Geithner, always reminded me of Cousin It, minus the hair.
How far to the left is the NDP? Shouldn’t someone write a background post for those of us who are not familiar with Canadian politics. What kinds of policies does NDP favor. Ditto other 2 parties. How do NDPers finance their campaign? Ditto other two parties. Are there any limits on corp campaign contributions. And disclosure. A refresher on parliamentary vs U.S. system would be helpful.
I distrust any political entity with new in its name on first principles. Smacks of Third Way.
The only thing I think I know about Canadian pols is that PM Harper is to the right of Attila.
It would be beyond my knowledge and ability to explain Canadian political campaign finance rules and regulations. Suffice to say there are limits placed on what a Party can spend on an election bid. The campaign period is also much shorter that that in U.S…..yours seems to go on forever….we have just a few months to listen to all the speeches and promises.
The idea of the NDP forming a federal government is a fairy tale so don’t panic all you Yankees who faint when the word SOCIALIST comes up. I would love to see an NDP Government but it just is not going to happen. At best the Conservatives (think Republican) will return with another minority government. At worst, they will gain a majority, in which case we shall continue down the same road that your conservatives are leading you.
Interesting to see an article about Canadian government on an American website.
Well, I’ve finally registered on FDL… knew it would happen eventually.
I’m a Canadian, and of a progressive turn of mind, but I think something needs to be made clear here – our system is really unpredictable right up until the election.
Example: The Green Party earned somewhere around 9% of the votes cast in 2008′s election. So did the Bloc Quebecois. The Green Party won NO seats, while at dissolution of Parliament the Bloc Quebecois held 47 seats in the House of Commons, all of them from the province of Quebec.
So while we Canucks on the left are watching and waiting with bated breath, we’re also trying not to get cynical and worried because there’s no way to tell if the polls will translate to seats won. The Liberals and NDP have been sniping at each other virtually from the start of the campaign, between potshots at our dead eyed hagfish of a Prime Minister, Stephen Harper.
It’s entirely possible that the NDP and Liberals will end up splitting their support and losing seats rather than gaining them. It doesn’t seem likely, given the behaviour we saw at the advance polls (up 34% from last federal election, with two million some voters turning out) but I’ve been dreading Harper winning another election (be it a majority or minority).
But at this point, most progressives up here are just fighting for anyone who isn’t Stephen Harper, the Poltroon-who-would-be-King. Strategic voting has been bandied about since the start of our election cycle, with independent groups listing ridings and candidates with a decent chance of defeating incumbent Tories (Conservatives). It’s also been bandied about by the Grits (Liberals) and Dippers (NDP) but not quite as accurately. Both leaders make competing arguments, with Ignatieff (Liberal leader) claiming that the NDP will never form a government and their supporters should vote Liberal and Layton (NDP leader) riding his sudden surge of support by arguing right back.
Here’s a quick (and funny) precis on how Canada’s government works, courtesy of the Rick Mercer Report: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yi1yhp-_x7A
And here’s a good resource for progressive blogs in the Great White North: http://www.progressivebloggers.ca/
I know we’ve discussed this before but why can’t Americans move to Canada again?
The NDP is a social democratic party that’s been around since the 1950s. It is the party that is responsible for the Canadian universal healthcare, having introduced it in SK before it was adopted nationally.
Don’t confuse them with the US’s “new” Democrats because of the name.
Wait, so you’re saying by inference that the liberals in the U.S. aren’t centrists by definition? Ok I’ll go finish the rest now.
You can, jwill5587,
But our immigration system is vigorously messed up. If you can’t earn enough ‘points’ on their scale, you’d find it very difficult to get in. I’d say we’re picky, but to be perfectly honest I’ve looked through the website and done some quick math in the past and *I* wouldn’t qualify for immigration to my own country. A great many Canadians would be in the same boat, if their criteria were a requirement for keeping citizenship.
It’s patently ridiculous how restricted immigration to Canada is. We’re not at all short of space, we’re a wealthy nation with abundant resources and a fairly liberal electorate (note the small ‘L’). A serious revamp of the system may well be in the works if we get an actual government after May 2nd. Instead of the sorry excuse we’ve dealt with for the last five years.
Well I’ve got something new to keep track of. I’m intrigued. I looked into the NDP a few years ago just for curiosity. I saw the party name in an article somewhere, read more for 15 minutes, thought what I read was a good start.
If the NDP actually forms a government I’ll be keeping my ear to the grindstone for any immigration legislation.
I already have enough points. By 1. Whaddya think?
I can tell you as a Canadian, that the NDP is definitely on the left of the political spectrum in Canada. The “New” in their name is not like the “New” in New Democrats. The NDP is analogous to your Progressive Caucus, but they do not roll over for the Liberals on demand. The “surge” the NDP is experiencing right now comes largely from Quebec at the expense of the left-leaning Bloc Quebecois. Quebec is definitely on the left.
To be fair to the Liberals, and add to the diary a little, the Liberal Party is not one huge monolithic “centrist” entity, although they are certainly not completely ideal progressives either. The Liberal Party stands for public, universal single-payer health care like the NDP does although I would say that the NDP is probably more forceful about it. When they were in power, the Liberal Party was the party that eliminated corporate funding of elections, and introduced a public subsidy method of funding election. And in 2008, the Liberals threatened to form a coalition with the NDP and Bloc Quebecois to force the Conservative government to introduce an economic stimulus package, when the Conservatives initially said they would do nothing. However, it was very difficult to form a coalition in the end in 2008 because it depended on support from the Bloc Quebecois, which is nominally a seperatist party, so it was hard to sell – however, it did force the Conservatives to change their course for the recession. If the NDP increases its seat total by taking a lot of seats away from the Bloc, the optics of forming a coalition will be much easier to accomplish.
Canada’s election funding here comes from 2 sources:
1. Public funding based on votes a party receives. For each vote a party receives in an election, they receive an annual public subsidy of ~2 dollars. So if you get 5 million votes, you get 10 million dollars. (The Conservative Party of Canada has stated that they want to eliminate this – all other parties want to keep it.)
2. Private donations, up to a limit of $1,100 annually.
Not as much money is needed as in the US – in large part because election campaigns here last about 6 weeks.
The NDP platform is based on full commitment to public universal health care (the Liberals’ is too). It would take a long time to recite the election platform, but to give you an idea, the NDP is very public in its support for unions, wants to legalize marijuana, and to leave Afghanistan. The NDP is also opposed to the “free trade” charade, and supports trade that is managed and fair. Think Bernie Sanders or Al Franken and that’s pretty much the model of the NDP.
Vote splitting has been an issue here, but if the NDP does well, electoral reform along the lines of proportional representation or run-off voting will certainly be given its proper due. And it must be said, this is only because the NDP stuck to its guns, and didn’t roll over to go with the “lesser of two evils.”
Voting takes place in 5 days, so this result isn’t assured based on the polls either – the situation here really is uncharted territory. But I definitely hope the results hold up.
And it would be poetic justice if the NDP deprived the Conservatives of a majority government they thought they were going to get. The Conservatives have positioned themselves for this election for 3 years by relentlessly attacking and smearing the Liberal leader in ad campaigns when we weren’t in an election, which has never really happened here. But they didn’t figure the NDP could be a factor, so now the NDP might actually lead the coalition that they tried to vilify, instead of the Liberals…
The Conservative Party is also a fairly new entity – the main party on the right used to be the Progressive Conservative Party (I know, sounds contradictory) and they were actually fairly responsible. But when they got wiped out in 1993, the right-wing Reform party absorbed them, and the renamed party on the right is named the Conservative Party of Canada – and is just vicious, nasty and regressive.
If Jack Layton becomes Prime Minister, will he be referred to as the “Left Honorable”?
( ducks and runs )
If Jack Layton becomes Prime Minister, you’ll be able to heard my delighted laughter from down there when Conservative leader Stephen Harper has to utter the words “Prime Minister Jack Layton” through clenched teeth. :)
And soon afterward, Ignatz will step down as head of the Liberal Party. Good riddance to bad rubbish.
(Full disclosure: I live in southeast Michigan, about 25 miles from the Windsor/Detroit border, and regularly tune in to CBC’s The National for real news.)
Yeah, I’m not a fan of Ignatieff either, but I think the extent to which Conservatives have attacked him is also really unseemly and over-the-top. And the stuff the Conservatives attack him for isn’t even the stuff I have problems with.
Oh, I should add to what I said above – the Liberals also passed gay marriage when they were in government and refused to go to Iraq. I’m definitely NDP by conviction, but although I disagree with some of their centrist tendencies, the Liberals deserve some liberal accolades too.
Kall does a better job of laying it out than I did (no expert, this lad).
An NDP minority would be fantastic, not least because we’ve never had one before. An NDP opposition would be nice to see as well. Having watched Michael Ignatieff carefully through the campaign, he doesn’t deserve to run the country. He doesn’t have that holy fire. I don’t much like Jack Layton either, or Elizabeth May (who heads the Green Party), but happily I just have to vote for a local Member of Parliament and not for any of the leaders.
Of course, I would say the same about every PM Canada has had since I was born. We don’t have Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness up here, we’re supposed to get Peace, Order and Good Government instead.
I’ve never once had all three at the same time, and I’ve never seen what the third one looked like on a national scale. It would make a nice change.
And you’re right, hearing Harpo utter the words “Right Honourable Jack Layton, Prime Minister of Canada” would be something I’d give someone’s right hand to hear. Maybe even my own.
You’d have to ask the Department, but you’ve got my blessing. Like I said, we’re not short of room and we’re generally pretty friendly.
Personally, I’ve always figured Canada should just take any Illegals being deported from the USA. Say, one family to every community in Canada to start with: invite them in and help them set themselves up. Adds to the work force, brings in new ideas, enriches our collective culture/s.
I think it may be a bit simplistic, as a notion, but I did come up with it as a teenager.
The right wing Conservative Government led by Stephen Harper is heading for a majority something that scares the heck out of progressives in Canada. Harper, a born again Christian and follower of ‘The Family’, wants to privatize everything. Many Canadians were hoping Harper would move to The USA and join the teabaggers.
Harper once elected with a majority will sell The CBC to Fox North.
Shediac, there’s a significant possibility of just that result. I am hoping, as are most people who aren’t rabidly conservative, that you’re wrong.
A Harper Majority could be as disastrous to Canada as George W. Bush was to the United States. Maybe more, our politics are further to the left to begin with, but Harper is extreme hard-right. He’s done enough damage already, and the sheer number of scandals, crimes and incidents of corruption involving those close to the PMO never ceases to sadden me.
So if you’re right, and Hagfish Harper wins a Majority… in the short term, we’re screwed. In the long term, maybe I should think about emigrating to Norway? I do have distant relatives there, and if Harper gets to enact his vision for Canada, I wouldn’t want to raise kids here.
I think the Liberal party as a whole is to the “left” of US Democrats as a whole, perhaps like the Progressive Caucus in practice. The NDP is further left, at least in rhetoric. If the trend continues in Quebec, the NDP is going to have some serious influence.
I took the online immigration test and barely passed. I am planning to apply soon. If I’m accepted, I don’t have to move there. If I move there, I don’t have to stay if I decide I don’t like it. Canada is really doing well now, aside from suffering similar employment issues as the US, though a bit less severe.
Let’s hope that doesn’t happen. I live on the West Coast and have been able to hear some debates on a couple of fairly powerful BC radio stations.
I’ve always thought that Canadians were much more sensible than people down here. They wouldn’t actually be so careless as to allow Harper and his minions to have unfettered control, would they?
I don’t know enough about the inside politics to forecast anything, but it seems that Canadians enjoy their left-of-center society’s benefits, including the health care system, too much to jeopardize it. l
One question: It seems like whoever wins big in Toronto would seem to have a big advantage. Which party is stronger there? I know that Harper is from Calgary, and his Conservatives would seem to appeal more to rural Canadians, but I may be wrong about that.
The thing about the Conservative Party of Canada (who are, really, a very new entity composed of the bones of the Progressive Conservatives and the Reform Party who first formed the Conservative Alliance and then the CPC) and especially this election cycle is that Stephen Harper has been campaigning in a bubble.
Aside from the two debates (one in English, one French) he hasn’t appeared in public outside of carefully controlled venues. There have been numerous incidents of people being ejected or screened from Stephen Harper’s public appearances (including a teenage student trying to inform herself before voting for the first time). There is footage out there of Harper’s flacks rousing the crowd to shout down a question he didn’t want to answer just a few days ago.
Wherever he goes, he carefully tailors his message to the local constituents and he has become notorious in the media for “campaigning in a bubble” and only taking a limited number of questions from the press each day (five, as I recall).
So it’s entirely possible that people will simply fail to inform themselves and vote against their interests and principles by voting Conservative. Happens all the time both up here and down there, no?
As far as support by region, Ontario has always been a serious battleground but traditionally goes Liberal in the urban areas and more Conservative in the rural ones. Quebec was a large conservative bastion in the 1980′s, but the formation of the Bloc Quebecois pretty much split the Progressive Conservative party. The CPC have large swathes of support out west (legacy of the right wing Reform Party, damn your eyes Preston Manning) but there are also NDP seats that are considered quite safe.
Politically, I would say that Canadians in general are far more to the Left of the spectrum than the CPC. We love our health care (thank you, Saskatchewan and Tommy Douglas for leading the way) and we are a peace loving, charitable and easy-going nation (unless you start slagging off our national sports of Hockey and Complaining about the Weather). I think that in some ways that easy-going attitude has worked against us because it has allowed a very right-wing element to take over what was once a much more moderate constituency.
Gods, I hope I’m making myself clear here. I’m an amateur, not an expert in Canadian Politics. I’m doing my best to avoid any gross misrepresentations but if any Canuck wants to correct/add to/debate this, please do.
Thanks for your assessment, Uncommoner. I will root for the common sense and good judgment that I always ascribe to Canadians to win the day.
I don’t know if you should count too much on that common sense, mon ami. We did give the world Celine Dion and Nickelback after all. ;P
Hmm, the Canadian NDP is somewhere between Marx and Keynes. To paraphrase a former NDP party leader, “Capitalism is allowed, if it behaves.”
A few others have already mentioned how political parties are financed, but I’ll add, election spending is capped, and closely monitored by the agency.
I don’t think anyone’s mentioned the NDP’s been around since the sixties, so it’s hardly new, anymore. But, the socialists back then had little marketing skills, so the name stuck.
As for the Canadian parliamentary system, we have two houses (Commons and Senate), and a head of state (King/Queen of England), but only the lower house has any actual power.
The leader of the party with the most seats in the commons forms the government through the cabinet. Unless it’s a minority government, whereupon two parties with a higher number of seats can form a coalition government.
The Supreme Court and the Senators are appointed by the Governor-General (who is the representative of the Queen for Canada). However, the Governor General defers to the cabinet (not by law, though, but by tradition).
The NDP proposes the abolishment of the senate, and possibly the governor-general.
A few other notes about the Canadian government: there’s a five year period between being a member of government, and joining a lobbying agency (although there are loopholes); the Prime Minister has near dictatorial powers, although the majority of them have tended to defer to their cabinet; and there are actually three levels of government: federal, provincial, and the Indian Act.