It was only three months ago that the Republican Party saw one of its largest political gains ever, yet already the electorate has swung back to supporting Democrats. From Tom Jensen at PPP:
Beyond Boehner’s numbers the most amazing thing on our poll this week is that not only are Democrats back ahead on the generic Congressional ballot by a 45-41 margin, but they’re ahead by a 38-31 margin with independents! That’s a quite change from what we saw over the course of 2009 and 2010. The four point lead for Democrats on the generic ballot represents an 11 point shift from the November elections and there were more than 40 districts that Democrats lost by that margin or less so if we went to the polls today under the current district configuration it’s entirely possible Democrats would get their House majority right back.
That is a huge change in a very short period of time. The last few years have seen a really volatile political environment with big swings and massive wave elections; it looks like this pattern is likely going to continue at least in the short term.
While this is good news for Democrats, there is still almost two years until the 2012 election. That is not only enough time for things to swing back toward the GOP, but apparently enough time to swing back and forth a few times between the two parties.
The fact that Democrats’ standing in the generic ballot has improved so quickly re-affirms my conviction that Democrats aren’t predestined to lose the Senate, and at least have a modest chance of retaking the House.