When fully in control of Washington, the Republican Party has traditionally shown no concern for budget deficits. They had no problem passing both unpaid-for tax cuts or huge entitlement expansion on nearly party line votes. As Republican Vice President Dick Cheney famously said, “Deficits don’t matter” –at least as long as Republicans are in the White House. As soon as the Democrats take control, they manage to always, as if by magic, rediscover a burning passion for fiscal responsibility. Some feel this demonstrates the incredible hypocrisy of the GOP, but it goes beyond that. Whether it developed by clever design or happenstance, in our broken political system, these Democratic victory-inspired revivals of deficit hawking really are a win-win for Republicans. It allows Republicans to get cuts while transferring the blame to Democratic party.
Most specific cuts in government spending are extremely unpopular. Not only that, but cuts often lead to slower growth, which in turn really hurts the party in power. It would be politically a bad decision for Republicans to waste the times when they are fully in control of Washington to push for party-line cuts. Now, if the only way to force cuts in the social safety net was to pass them while Republicans were fully in control, the GOP might actually be willing to take this political hit to achieve this policy goal. After all, most elected Republicans really seem to enjoy slashing the social safety net. For example, think of how the Tories in the UK can only force the spending cuts they want when they are in control, so that is why they are pushing them now, despite it hurting their poll numbers.
Fortunately for Republicans, our broken political system doesn’t function like most democracies, so they are relieved of this tough choice and direct accountability. Thanks to divided government, and more importantly the filibuster, even in the minority, Republicans still have sufficient power to hold basically everything hostage to demand spending cuts. They are able to win the cuts while forcing the Democrats who control the White House to share the political blame for unpopular moves.
This strategy is on the verge of working out great for the Republicans again
Republicans are about to push President Obama to reach a “compromise” on spending cuts so he will share the blame. Cuts that are not only likely to be unpopular, but as David Dayen points out, highly anti-stimulative. The CBO’s baseline assumptions are already very dark.
CBO projects that the unemployment rate will gradually fall in the near term, to 9.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, 8.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012, and 7.4 percent at the end of 2013. Only by 2016, in CBO’s forecast, does it reach 5.3 percent, close to the agency’s estimate of the natural rate of unemployment (the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand, which CBO now estimates to be 5.2 percent).
These employment assumptions are based on basically consistent spending levels. If Republicans manage to push for immediate cuts, further reducing aggregate demand, the likely result is higher than projected unemployment in 2012. Slow growth and high unemployment is almost always devastating to incumbent presidents, which, in this case, would be a huge political win for Republicans.
I can fully appreciate how the Republican Party’s seemingly bipolar behavior on deficits and spending cuts is such a smart policy and political win-win for the party. What I fail to understand is why Democrats are so willing to play into their rhetorical trap, or Democrats’ stubborn refusal to even consider changing the absurd rules that make this strategy possible.



40 Comments
I can never seem to understand it, but the Repugs are always in a “Heads we win, tails you loose” position.
If the economy grows and unemployment declines, then the Repugs will claim credit.
If the economy doesn’t grow and high unemployment continues, then the Repugs will blame the Democrats.
The GOP brand name is so strong when they say Democrats want to spend money their base knows knows they mean the Democrats want to spend White People tax dollars on Dark People.
The facts don’t matter they believe.
From his track record, there’s no reason to think that he’s being pushed.
It’s what he’s wanted all along. The Third Way or the highway.
There is nothing to stop Dems from doing the same thing with war spending but the Dems have no spine.
Yes and if they cut SS I think we will go Egypt on their Ass!
As Obama surrenders more and more we have to step up.
A win win for Republicans means a lose lose for the working and middle class.
Our Dem elite still believe Chicago and Austrian Schools of economics despite 8 years of Bush and two years of Obama real world evidence proving otherwise.
The dems are sellouts!That makes them more evils not lesser evils.
The Republicans are in this position because Mr. Bipartisanship and the Professional Dems never addressed the actual problem of their poisonous policies for 2 years and the President basically just sat in his office so as not to offend anyone. Apparently he thinks that when his (self-described) Republican health care bill is seen as the miserable failure that it is and health care costs keep going up because he kept the private for-profit industry going strong unlike every other developed country, the Republican party is going to step up to the public and cop to the fact that the problem was it had too many of their ideas in it.
If a Republican House, Senate and President had passed inadequate garbage like their Democratic counterparts did, at least they’d be obliged to take the hit for it. Instead, the Obama 2012 campaign is apparently going to be stuff like saying he’ll rescind the Bush tax cuts for the rich – but he’ll pinky-swear this time, so people will believe him.
I don’t think anyone could be that dumb, so the only rational conclusion is that these are their preferred policies.
Obama thinks his African American support never will fade but at this rate he will be the worse President for African Americans since Hoover.
We can work with that. The Dem Base us the Left does most of the grass roots stuff for Dem campaigns lets see David Axelrod win a campaign without unpaid volunteers.
Obama is betting Sarah will be the GOP candidate and he can run as our only choice. He never thinks that we are willing to lose with a third party candidate rather than let him win again.
For a man who betrayed us so bad it seems he does not understand the lengths we will go to retaliate. He thinks he can smile like Reagan give a good speech and all will be forgotten. (Reagan raised taxes but the GOP forgot that).
We are not as forgetful as the GOP.
“.. why Democrats are so willing to play into their rhetorical trap ..”
Because they are two wings of the same party with the same long term goals just different opinions how to get there?
Events in the ME might soon be over taking our economy as OIl spikes upward again in response. Under those circumstances cutting the deficit would drive us back into an even deeper Depression then the one were suffering through right now. But it would at the same time greatly enrich the OIL cartels which are a powerful arm of the GOP so they won’t care.
Yes. That’s the whole deal. Liberals have no voice in leadership.
I wish that were true, but all the evidence we’ve seen is that the Repugs always lie about their failures, and too many of the voting public swallow it hook, line and sinker.
If the true facts were believed by the voting public, there would be no Repug party.
Ok, I’m exaggerating. *g*
There might still be a Repug party equal to the number of totally batshit crazy people in the US.
http://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/ole-hansen/the-economic-impact-of-higher-oil-prices-2455
My bold Now imagine what happens if Saudi Arabia starts having riots.
True but we can’t be blamed for the bad economy either the Tea Baggers took some power now they get some blame we just need to remove ourself from the Dem name to avoid the stain of Obama.
There isn’t a fictitious Wall Street-fueled housing economy for Republicans to hide the real effects of their policies behind anymore like they did right through 2008 which is what got people to swallow their lies, and the public overwhelmingly rejects their wars. Any failures would have been out in the open this time.
The problem with the true facts is that the Democratic Party is fine with rescuing Wall Street rather than the real economy, and keeping up the wars… which is what led to the wonderful state of affairs currently…
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703956604576109772560128768.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Now imagine a 1% loss in GDP or more its only now that GDP is up that some economists thinks unemployment will drop. But the Obama economic recovery story disappears if GDP drops again.
He’s a Reagan Democrat.
They should have known it didn’t work after 8 years of Reagan and 4 years of Bush41.
Agreed but they are stupid even I never thought they were that stupid though.
Ever know anybody who operates in that manner? :) Sounds to me like the Reps just have a higher percentage of obligate shits leading their party. The Reps then are just the bad cop foil for the facade that is US gov’t. Have you read Dean’s “Conservatives Without a Conscience”?
Nah, just stupid.
To whom is he surrendering? :)
Or they did until the rallying cry of deficit, deficit hit the fans.
I am horrified with Obama obviously having swallowed the Randian garbage hook line and sinker, is proceeding to apply the same policies that got us to the brink. He and the Blue Dogs even use their language.
“Into valley of death rode the
400″USA.D.H. Hughley on Bill Maher says it brought tears to his eyes to listen to Obama speak, to see a black man doing such a superb job as President of the United States. Hearing him react this way, with weak knees, a tremulous lip and glistening tears, over Obama doing exactly what Bush did, is one of the saddest, most hope-devoid things I have ever seen.
It’s all working out as intended. Nobody of any significance, or in any great numbers, cares that everything the bad ole repugs are doing now is actually the work of Obama. One republican guest on the show finally wearied of the ragging about the tax cuts for the rich and spoke up. He was quickly talked over. The size of the crowd that gets it is shrinking, not growing.
Fingers plugging ears, tongues going “La la la la la!”
To my mind, an essential criterion for being considered a leader is that you do not ask those with less power than you have to do anything that you haven’t or wouldn’t do yourself. So in terms of austerity, where is the leadership by example? We have a government packed with corrupt politicians in that they take bribes from corporations, money that is necessary for them to run a successful campaign and keep their jobs. Are we to believe that these people are so morally weak and selfish that the only way they can keep themselves from accepting corporate bribes is to pass laws forcing them to do so? This is the behavior of a leader? The great majority of them are richer than the average US citizen and are attached to the public teat and weaned at the corporate slop trough. I will consider them leaders and change my opinion that they are more than just corporate cocksuckers when they put their money where their mouths are by exempting themselves from the receipt of tax dollars and turn their positions of “leadership” into something more than sinecures. “Congressperson _________ , what are you doing, personally, to tighten your belt? What public funds are you declining for the good of the country?”
Exactly. Watching it all fold out is really quite flabbergasting. People that identify themselves as progressive and liberal have completely lost their marbles in the last 2 years, praising and lapping at everything Obama has done. It’s actually mortifying that previously intelligent people, become so stupid even with reality hitting them right in the face.
Maybe “doing exactly what Bush did” is what Hughley meant by “doing such a superb job”? Obama does do a more convincing job of playing “The President” on TV than Bush did. :) Bush could never keep a straight face or otherwise stay in character.
“change you can believe in”
“I feel about you the way you think I do”
We hear what we want to hear.
If Obama had been a popularist he could govern as a popularist and make a case to the court of public opinion. But he aint and he cant.
Oh no, the new slogan is “Winning The Future”. The only, and I mean ONLY, time ever in this reality that I have to almost agree with Palin. WTF is right. What kind of moron in this administration actually came up with that slogan? I can hear the chants now for 2012.
WTF! WTF! WTF! WTF!
It’s still down to voters, who are now rightfully more disillusioned than ever. Obama is a sad joke, as is most of the Dem party. The GOP is basically pure evil, but their base is a bunch racists and bible thumpers who will always march in line. Add the wonderful Supreme Court decision to allow unlimited corporate funding of campaigns and it’s clear that the US is basically toast.
Because the Democrats who vote Republican are. Republican, that is.
Great analysis of Obama mind/motives/approach/direction is posted at
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-bromwich/obama-incorporated_b_815756.html
“Obama thinks his African American support never will fade”
Yeah, about that: Black voters turned out no better than any other segment of the Democratic base in the 2010 mid-terms.
First, our Dems need to grow a lot of spine. Don’t just talk the talk. Walk the walk — a rarity thus far.
Example: failing to force on a vote for extending the tax cuts to the richest 2 percent prior to the election, not after. Let them explain to their voters why their puppet masters should be immune to belt-tightening while the rest of us fall further behind, as they concurrently plan to raid and privatize Social Security.
Another example: Had a vote been forced on the public option, and the GOP killed it, then they could explain to America why health reform needs to be repealed because health care is too expensive. For too long, our Dems have let the GOP dictate the agenda.
They are masters at turning the Dems’ strengths into weaknesses.
Defending a woman’s freedom to choose and a person’s sexual preference is a strength. Yet they’ll paint it as an immoral sin.
Most of us want our air and water to be clean and food safe. Yet, they’ll make you look anti-American and anti-business when we ask that regulations be enforced.
Who doesn’t want better schools and teachers, safer highways and bridges? Yet we are branded as big government, budget-busting deficit spenders.
Besides Wall Street and big banks’ friends in our government, who liked the big bank bailouts and record bonuses? Yet when we demand accountability and enforcement, the GOP comes to their defense. That should a liability for them. But it won’t be.
Why? Cause Dems haven’t yet learned how to play offense as a team, stay on the offensive, turn the tables and set the agenda. They need to force Republicans to defend their lamestream positions.
For example, after having had nearly a decade in power, now they want lower taxes and a balanced budget? Since they won’t say how, choose for them. Cut defense and war spending. Force a vote on campaign finance reform. Close tax loopholes for our companies that create jobs overseas and make the rest of us pay proportionately higher taxes.
Make them vote. Make them be accountable. Stop playing Rahm’s game of counting votes. We won’t win every vote. But politically, we’ll win when they have to explain to their voters why our government isn’t working the way it ought to work.
Some of our Dem leaders who have spine don’t need to hear this rant. The others with no spine don’t want to hear it.
So what to do? Primary the spineless and the blue dogs with progressives, at all levels. From bottom to top. Then we can set the agenda.
Good point. It could all be that simple.
I hear ya. It might take such a series of events to finally break us our OILY habit. We can count on the western cartels to cash in and then use their ill gotten gains to make sure politically we can’t do a thing.