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Over the past few weeks we have seen a small but significant improvement in President Obama’s poll numbers. Over the past 12 days the Gallup daily tracking poll found Obama’s job approval numbers have been net positive every day.
The latest NBC/WSJ poll found that Obama has a 53 percent job approval, with only 41 percent disapproval. That is a large gain from last month when the same poll found him in negative territory with 45 percent approval and 48 percent disapproval.
In addition, the newest PPP poll found that Obama is now at his strongest position against the top Republican contenders in years.
PPP’s monthly look ahead to next year’s Presidential race finds Barack Obama in his best position against the major Republican contenders since 2009.
The GOP hopefuls who would make it most competitive against Obama continue to be Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, each of whom he leads by 5 points. Against Romney that’s Obama’s largest advantage since December of 2009 and against Huckabee it’s his biggest lead since November of that year. As hyper as people are getting about Obama’s improved approval numbers right now it’s still worth noting that his performance against each of these folks is worse than what he posted against John McCain in 2008. He’s in a stronger position than he was throughout 2010 but he’s still in a weaker position than where he started his Presidency and that’s something that should probably be kept in perspective.
For the most part, Obama’s approval numbers, now just under two years out from the 2012 election, mean very little. After all, Democrats were polling very well in January 2009 and we know how things turned out last November.
It is possible, however, that Obama’s improving poll numbers could have an impact on the Republican primary. There might be some potential candidates, like Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, who were thinking about running, but are now more inclined not to because Obama has started looking less vulnerable.
38 Comments
Too bad the unemployment hasn’t dropped proportionally.
For purposes of assaying the potential outcomes of presidential elections you need state by state polling. National polling averages for presidential elections like national unemployment averages really are not worthy.
Please provide the polling numbers for Obama in Ohio, Wisconsin and Florida?
Well, now this IS good news for John McCain. ;-)
We’ll see where those numbers go after he guts Soc Sec and puts a big hit on Medicare. (See David Dayen’s column.)
Isn’t this a well-known phenomenon? National crises and tragedies almost invariably cause the President’s approval ratings to go up. I’m sure this is why Bush-Cheney tried to keep us scared to death all the time. Put in this context, the small size of the uptick is remarkable.
My thoughts exactly.
Again, poll results depend upon who you ask…they do not speak for all
Americans…whatever percentage cited, it is microscopic in relation to the population and shouldn’t be relied upon as fact. JMHO
Tuscon and taxes. Short-term in all likelihood.
Obama’s perceived strength is bipartisanship. He needed a clearer Republican majority and when he works with them even against average people it will be perceived as action rather than gridlock.
It would appear that a fairly large number of independents approve of Obama right now. It’s certainly not the right wing and it’s unlikely that it’s us professional lefties.
Michigan, too. Obama’s prospects in my state have fallen off considerably since 2008. The Republicans control all branches of government; the state Democratic Party is still ruled by the UAW gerontocracy, even though it continues to hemorrhage members; Detroit’s mayor will be a non-player in GOTV efforts; and the state party chairman, elected in 1995, is averse to change.
“…you need state by state polling …”
My first thought exactly. A 5% swing in three or four states is all it would take for Obama to go down in flames. And I suspect the dems will continue to have a turnout problem to boot.
It is easy for me to tell a guy on the phone that I prefer Obama to a Romney or a Huckabee but that doesn’t mean I like him or that I will make any effort for him.
Its kind of like asking a guy that hates vegatables whether he prefers broccoli or brussel sprouts. What ever answer he gives doesn’t mean he is going to go down to the supermarket and buy some for dinner.
Obama’s corporate poll numbers go up as he hires more corporate lackeys into his administration and news here is…?
And I suspect the dems will continue to have a turnout problem to boot.
Young voters, in particular, will see Obama as a politician who promised big and delivered little. Many of them will remain alienated from electoral politics for many years to come.
Many independents are professional lefties. Which ones are we talking about, the low information independents?
And when the Republicans are for eliminating any gains from Insurance reform, Dems do look a little better to the low information types.
I know how I have answered polls and I have expressed support of the President just so it would not be taken as further excuse for Obama to move to his natural state, the right, or show weakness of supposed support of the President.
The people answering the polls are more thoughtful than how the numbers are used.
Obama’s high approval ratings will make it easier for him to put Social Security and Medicare on the chopping block. And I’m sure that he’s licking his chops just thinking about this, just like the Big Bad Wolf did when he thought about Little Red Riding Hood.
Strongly agreed.
Why have his numbers improved? What good has he done?
If the economy doesn’t improve, polls will mean absolutely nothing. Repubs could run Palin and she’d win if unemployment is still high. No, it isn’t that far fetched.
Appears to be in response to the Tucson speech.
Protecting social security may depend upon her being President. At least then Dems can play the opposition to bad policy.
According to the latest WaPo poll Huckabee is 21%, Palin at 19% and Romney at 17%. Newt has 9% and Christie has 8%. If only 19% like Palin now, I don’t think she is going to be the nominee because that’s her cult saying yes to her.
You are getting too far ahead of yourselves talking about the presidential race in 2012. These numbers do not tell us much, if anything, about that.
They do cast some light on the improbability of a Democratic primary challenge.
Never underestimate them. Polls showed Hillary Clinton would be the Dem nominee for years ahead of the actual primaries, did they not?
This isn’t a mystery is it. He has been catering to the powers that run the media, duh.
Gee, it would be a shame if we had Palin as president. That would mean endless wars, huge expansion in offshore oil-drilling (leading to environmental disaster), government saying it could kill anyone it wants without trial, huge breaks for big corporations, erosion of civil liberties, and so on.
In other news 49.99% of the population is below average, with regard to….
everything.
True
Do we give away a DINO choosing the SCOTUS in exchange for the Dems pretending opposition on things like war, oil, etc.
This is a significantly insignificant and misunderstood data point. Obama’s numbers are generally taken from the top 20% of registered voters. 75% of Americans don’t even vote. But the main point to this that is insignificant is that many Americans incorrectly believe we are now in a recovery. When the future is worse than it was back in 2008, and that day will come before his re-election, his approval ratings will look like George Bush gone mad.
The GOP and the luny right (and some far lefties) wrote obama off within his first two years in office. He could do no right. However, if he ends those wars and ends Gitmo and the economy picks up…finally he should win a second term, but it will be much closer. Romney is a Gore, he wont even win his home state and Huckabee is not acceptable to the base. And if the GOP nominates a Palin, Bachmann loony type the only thing they will have a chance of winning is a beauty contest. The GOP has assumed to win, at their peril.
I disagree with your statement, Jon, that “For the most part, Obama’s approval numbers … mean very little….” I think “Clarence thomas” Obama’s rising poll numbers speak hugely, not to his accomplishments, but to the dumbing down of America.
How about an Poll, Jon, asking regular FDL visitors if they voted this last time around for their Dem. Incumbents?
I disagree. I’m a far lefty and I know some nazi right-wingers. I and they never wrote him off. He has shown himself to be a skillfull chicago politician whose language deceives all but folks like us here.
I consider him dangerously electable again.
Jon,
I really enjoy your excellent analysis regarding heathcare, but find this post rather light in its horserace scenario.
Seems to be a post that could have been done by MSM.
This site has been strongly pro-issue and not so personality-centric as this post. I intend no criticism but find the issue rather irrelevant.
Yep, temporary bounce from the Tucson shootings.
You have a point – “then democrats can play opposition to bad policy.” The key word here is “play.”
Who cares.
Didn’t listen to his vacuous speech on Tucson, just waiting for the next diebold republican election.
I guess everyone is a neo-liberal now, if not a neo-con, but of course most people wouldn’t know a neo-liberal if they came up and bit them on the a$$.
I do not see much change in Obama’s poll numbers. He has been around 50% most of his presidency, give or take a few percent. Check http://www.pollingreport.com/obama_job.htm for the numbers since his inauguration.