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With all the entries in Firedoglake’s Election Projection Challenge now in, I decided to see if the aggregate projections of the FDL community can outperform the professional political prognosticators. With that in mind, here is the average of all entries in our contest:
- Democrats Hold 218 seats in the House
- Democrats Hold 52.6 seats in the Senate
- Prop 19 passes with 50.39% of the vote
That’s a loss of 37 seats in the House–or, to look at it another way, it leaves Democrats hanging on to the majority by a single seat. The Democratic caucus in the Senate would see a loss of six to seven members, still leaving it with a working majority.
At least that is how the FDL entrants saw it; as for the professionals. . . .
The professional prognosticators:
Cook Political Report: GOP gains 50-60 seats in House and 6-8 in the Senate.
The Rothenberg Report: GOP gains 55-65 seats in House and 6-8 in the Senate.
Larry Sabato: GOP gains 55 seats in House and 8 in the Senate.
Nate Silver: GOP gains 54-55 seats in the House and 7-8 in the Senate.
My personal prediction is that the Republicans will gain a net total of 51 seats in the House–giving them the majority and leaving the Dems with 204 seats–and Democratic caucus will hold on to 53 Senate seats. I got my House total by systematically going race by race, counting each seat I though would flip, mostly based on the public polling. I know my projections are boring, simply slightly on the low end of most other prognosticators. I was tempted to predict that Democrats would lose as many as 80 seats or as few as 30 seats, not because I think either is likely, but because, on the off chance that something very unexpected happened this year, I would looking like a super-genius. In the end, though, I think the conventional wisdom on this election became conventional for many good reasons.
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11/01 Final 2010 Midterms Forecast: RV/LV Polls and Election Fraud
http://richardcharnin.com/2010ElectionForecastModels.htm
Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
The 2010 House and Senate Forecast Models are based on a comprehensive analysis of Registered Voter (RV) and Likely Voter (LV) polls.
Pollsters claim that LV polls are good predictors – and it’s partly true. Since the 2000 selection, LV polls have matched to the fraudulent recorded vote quite well.
But RV polls more closely matched the True Vote – before the miscounts.
The LV Model predicts a 234-201 GOP House and a 50-48 Democratic Senate. But the registered voter (RV) projections tell a different story.
The Democrats lead the weighted average of 18 Senate RV polls by 8.5%. They lead the corresponding LV sub-samples by 0.9%.The RV projections indicate a 53-45 Democratic Senate.
The GOP leads the latest 30 House Generic LV polls by 6.8%. They lead the latest 19 RV polls by just 0.7%.The RV projections indicate a 221-214 Republican House.
The Democrats lead in the following Generic Ballot RV polls: Pew, ABC/WaPo, CBS/NYT, McClatchy/Marist, Newsweek, NBC
Both House and Senate models assume an even UVA split of the undecided 10%.
Pre-election (RV) polls interview registered voters. Likely voters are a sub-sample based on the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM). Media pundits focus on LV polls during the final weeks of every election cycle while RV polls are phased out.
Well, the Corporate Stooge in Chief, Barack Hoover-Bush Obama will certainly be happy when his party is back in charge of the House at least….. what, really, oh…but…
Here in Oklahoma we have a state question to deny local judges from using Sharia law in deciding cases. I guess I missed that trend. Really? Our local legislators are wasting brain power by whipping this issue? Red meat for red necks in a red state I guess.
What’s the over and under on the number of Democratic strategists who’ll blame tonight’s loss on Obama going too far to the left? Whatever the number is, bet the over.
.6 of a senate seat?? i was wondering who that would be so i figured i could match it up with the .6 of a brain. that was no help.
Jon:
You know what bugs me? That Charlie Cook really doesn’t know crap. Can he tell me what’ll happen in PA-06? Will Gerlach squeak by again? Will Gerlach get over 52% of the vote(which Nate Silver claims) despite never getting above 52%(even against an empty box)?
let’s try it this way…… easier for me. will there be anybody NOT saying that? On TV, anyway. Maddow, Olberman. That’s about it.
LOL. I don’t know how that works. These guys get a reputation and they never lose it no matter how shitty they perform. Happens alot in politics.. pollsters, “consultants,’ campaign managers. Don’t get it.
On this election day, a very important article to read -
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,726447,00.html
The Village consensus, after much distillation, will be Democratic losses were a result of crybaby DFH’s not getting 100 percent of everything they wanted, led by the Hamsher faucus caucus. This is, obviously a center-right nation.
Way down yonder on the Indian Nation/Ridin’ my pony on the reservation…… What’s up OFG? I thinkl that question is on the ballot other places too. We had one in FL, a ballot question– should the federal budget have to be balanced. Oh yeah. It’s non-binding. Very nice of FL to recognize that.
Don’t know the number but the percentage is 100%.
If the Republicans take the house and the Senate blocks all future Presidential appointments (which it has pretty much done so far), and if the House refuses to raise the debt limit, as it did in 1995, there will be a big shake-out in the Republican Party. The banking interest cannot afford a partial sovereign default (postponing interest until the gridlock is broken), and the international financial community will be putting strong pressure on them to get the thing fixed. The outcome will depend on the Senate Democrats holding firm on social security. It’s basically coming down to that. Good-bye pensions.
That’s like depending on the Michigan Wolverines’ defense to keep their opponents off the board.
The problem with the 2010 mid-term election is everyone is avoiding the obvious, a lot of intelligent voters now know their govt has been hijack by corporations.
Both parties are under the control of a few corporations.
Few Dems and GOP voters like the current state of their govt.
The question all pollster need to ask, and did not ask, is how many DEMS are going to vote and hold their nose and shut their eyes while they vote. (It is not like GOP base of voters grew the last 20 months, from all accounts it got a lot smaller)
All intelligent democrats know that Obama the trojan horse and corporate dems, are responsible for bringing the GOP back from the dead.
An average Democratic with an average democrat chief of staff could have destroyed the GOP, a real democratic would have focused on Main Street and Jobs the last 20 months.
A real democratic president would have been doing town hall meeting all around the USA, making sure his citizens knew he cared about them. (copying FDR fire side chats)
A real democratic president would not have attacked every part of his base.
Obama and corporate dems woke up a lot people, and they are FURIOUS!!! at being CON by Obama,Democrats and Republicans.
I was watching tv all the Talking Heads predict we will lose but they also expect huge voter turnout. This is a logical contradiction why Jon got over twice the numbers Glen Beck did at his rally.
Forecasting models are as accurate as the methodology and the data. It is the data, which is the problem. There is not enough local district-by-district data to tell you anything except in the races that the pollsters have deemed “most competitive”. For everything else there is a model that depends on national voter sentiment. The result is one heck of a lot of uncertainty this year.
Nate Silver’s forecasting model, which has a solid methodology if very conventional, has the following 2-sigma ranges:
Senate: 48D – 56D, 93% chance of D control but 0% of filibuster-proof control, definite loss of 3D seats – North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana
House: 160D – 250D, 16% chance of D control; definite loss of 5D seats
Except nationwide turnout seems to be way higher than normal in the early going. So much for predictions based on “likely voters”.
The Tea Baggers are considered likely voters they were already factored in by the pollsters. Younger Minority, and Gay voters were expected to be disillusioned with Obama.
But if the likely voters were already factored in then just where will the pro GOP voters come from to create a huge turnout of voters?
With all due respect, that is not the hidden obvious.
Bit of an oxymoron, given that sixty didn’t work…
When we can start building Hooverville on the National Mall?
I can’t wait to hear some Clinton Follower (phony democrat) say Obama went to far to the left.
The person that says it, better be ready to meet the FURY, that will be delivered to them by the Liberals and Progressives.
The OBAMA CON is Over!
Voter turnout at my precinct is above what they expected (I talked to one of the poll workers) and I could see for myself that it was busy. I’ve never had to wait for a seat to vote like I did this morning. Unfortunately, I figure in the area I live, that probably means a high turnout of wingnuts voting for wingnuts.
I made two protest votes. It was surprisingly difficult not to vote for the Dems in the Senate and House raes, but I stayed strong. No more lesserevilism for me. I couldn’t vote for Republicans, and the only other two choices were also very conservative/liberatian, so I wrote “Medicare for All.” It could be argued I threw away my vote since the ballot said write ins were for approved candidates only, but I decided rather than look at it as wasted, it’s a protest vote that has a teeny tiny chance of sending a message. I did vote Dem for state and local races.
Never mind how many GOP voters have nothing to vote for lets face it top ticket races get the press that and scandal.
Can anyone who hates immigrants vote for a GOPer with a Hispanic Nanny? Can any GOPer who hates immigrants vote for McCain when he said Whites won’t pick crops for $50 an hour? By the way I worked on a farm this summer Whites will pick crops for minimum wage.
Read Lanny Davis and wait no more.
Wow. Thanks for that insight. My fundie wingnut family in the NorthEastern area of the USA have been rabbiting on about Sharia Law for some time now. They are members of one of Doug Coe’s execrable C Street “Family” churches, and these churches are cults. So I just figured it was the C Street/T-Bag/Koch brothers influence on these church goers to get them very riled up (and it worked) about how we’re all doomed because we’re all going to be living under Sharia Law.
One sibling was most emphatic that “they” (I guess Muslims, not sure) have “instituted Sharia law for sure” in Detroit. I guess now that’s “leaking over” in to OK??? Whatever… these victims sure do love being scared out of their ever-loving minds, don’t they?
As you say: what a waste of time and voting paper. Duh.
Pollsters, beginning with Gallup have always assumed a turnout of 39 percent Republicans and 18 percent of Democrats. That seems absurd to me, hence my contempt for the polling this cycle.
My religious sister heard the GOP candidate partied with Satan on a bloody altar well after bug eyed disbelief she said as a Christian she would have problems voting for her. Problems is sister speak for not Damm Well Likely!
Can a Person who hates Gays vote for the GOP Governor candidate in New York who had his son run a Gay Club he owned?
Can a true Christian vote for a guy who forwards an email of a woman Fing a horse?
Facebook has a tally running at the top of the page where you click if you voted. It’s around 3 million facebook users thus far.
The Front Pagers should wait for that and post I’ll have my knives sharpened:)
The GOP I think has not counted what I call the Church effect if you can’t brag to your friends in church you voted for a GOPer without risking shame you can’t vote for the guy.
Rand Paul kidnapping a girl and forcing her to worship aqua budda?
Sorry Pride among friends is a closer circle than Fox and friends.
Old Lanny Davis our favorite Right Wing Tea Party Follower and Clinton’s right hand man.
Someone needs to ask Lanny Davis how do you define Liberal? Progressive?
Because in Lanny Davis world Ronald Reagan is a Progressive, because Obama is to the right of Reagan.
Just once I’d like to hear just how it is that we are moving toward sharia law?
Gosh, I think that piece was last week or maybe the week before. If I was interested, I would look for a link but the man turns my stomach.
Methinks its time to change out of my beard costume and take this election seriously. To the KrisAinCA cave!
I remember when he told Ed Schultz that he was a progressive and even Ed looked skeptical, though he didn’t challenge the assertion.
Especially appropriate since you Brian Wilson’s Beard is now put away until next season.
youDamn I miss edit.
Whats that advertising joke a new dog food was launched they had Lassie as a spokesdog they did a million dollar TV commercial campaign but after good sales for a few months sales fell off.
The ad people did a survey to find out why just where had they gone wrong in their advertising campaign was Lassie no longer the IT Dog? Was a million dollars of tv ads not enough to brainwash consumers to buy a new product? Were TV watchers getting their facts from the Net?
Nope the Dogs didn’t like the dog food.
My current odds as to who’s the first: Harold Ford 2-3; Paul Begala 2-1; Lanny Davis 5-2; James Carville 6-1.
Over and under on when it’s said: 9:37 Eastern time.
No way. The Beard has a parade to attend tomorrow morning at 11. On Market St. Then some press conferences. And maybe a reality show. Who knows what’s in store for the beard?
I think if eMeg and iCarly wore beards today, they could win.
Time to bring it up again we have to hold our lunch to stop this guy.
I think Dems lose 58 seats in the House, and wind up with 51 seat caucus in the Senate.
Will Lieberman stick with the Dems or caucus with the GOP? That’s the question.
What they won’t wait until after the polls close??? Just how Desperate are they to spin a failing Corporate imposed Media story to brainwash folks as Reality kicks in?
Reality like we can’t find jobs we are losing our jobs and the Fucking Banks get a bailout?
Only if even with Biden voting breaking a Senate tie Joe can swing things GOP.
Well ok can Joe help the GOP filibuster if the Dems do better than expected and hold seats.
Odds that they will all mention it if the Democrats lose big: 1-1. Odds that they will all mention it if Dems hold on to their majorities: 1-1. These people have opne message and only one message: “This is a center right country and pretending to be more republican and Republicans is the only way to electoral success.”
I am expecting violence at polling places I hope the Lake is watching for and ready to report as it happens.
I’ll bet he goes to the Republicans no matter what happens. He knows he’s toast running as a Democrat or Indie in Connecticut.
In Texas, nearly 21 percent of registered voters voted early. Stand by to revise your prognostications!
I can’t argue with your picks
I am going to go all in on Lanny Davis
James Carville, just saw BP destroy the GULF OF MEXICO, and Obama done nothing! Obama re-action to the BP Disaster in the GULF, made it clear to all intelligent Dems, that he is a complete tool of Wall Street.
I also think Lanny is the one Clinton right wing member that did not get the memo, THIS IS NOT 1994! and Progressive are not in a Joking state of mind.
I think all the four letters words being directed towards Dems from the left has gotten to the white house.
Never mind Obama is to the right of the American People on the issues we care about most Homes and Jobs? Never mind that to get jobs and keep our homes we would end both wars in a second?
Never mind cutting SS to keep the wars going is as popular as a tax on beer?
That’s a great question that I hadn’t considered. He’ll probably buck his constituents even more and caucus with the GOPers.
If the Dems end up with 51 Senate seats including Lieberman, even if he switches, I think the Dems retain the majority and committee chairmanships because of the VP’s vote. So I doubt if Joe would switch.
Now, if the Dems end up with 50 Senate seats including Joe, …
You’re preaching to the choir.
I can’t wait for Sarah Palin to help old Joe Lieberman win.
Priceless!
Can you say Awkward?
I can hear Joe Telling Sarah, don’t attack OBAMACARE, I work for the Big Health Care companies.
Will Lieberman stick with the Dems or caucus with the GOP? That’s the question.
If he thinks he can be an even bigger prick by remaining a Democrat and undermining the caucus from within, he won’t switch.
The problem you have there, even with the VP vote, is there is nary a whisper of straying from the Super Majority bullshit. Democrats will whistle through the dark for the next two years, claiming they can’t get anything done because of that damned super majority and the Republican obstructionism. Probably in hopes of swinging things back their way in 2012.
The pollsters don’t understand the carry over effect the crazy guy at the bar who fights with dark people and gays doesn’t get respect even in the bars I used to go to.
I broke up a fight between a Gay coke using a ex Con and a skinhead once I grabbed the skinheads arms nobody cared the guy was gay the skinheads brother ratted out the Gay guy and sent him to prison us scum bags have morals.
Heck more morals than Civilization we have immediate consequences for Disrespect never mind ratting us out.
If I had known he was a Rat I would not have grabbed his arms and try as he might he could not move.
I said no fights in Maria’s bar (sadly gone)
Skinheads only in a like minded group can let their ideas work. but interacting with the rest of us the Gay guy would have killed him.
The Mexican saved his life but if he had known oh well.
Still the blonde invited me to an after hours party at the skin heads house without telling me it was the skinheads house the guy could paint we talked.
People are People I hope the skinhead remembers what I did for him now.
Have you seen my Diaries if I talk about this stuff I get a trollfest. My Green Energy diaries never get that much attention. I throw out ideas here and if they survive I write diaries why so I’m better prepared for trolls.
Copying my reply to you from the comments on the Ruminations post …
PA-6 was polled October 18-20 by Monmouth U. and sorry to say the poll showed Trivedi behind 54-44.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house/pennsylvania/6
I think Trivedi is an excellent candidate — better than Roggio, Murphy, and Wofford — and I’m voting for him, but unfortunately it seems likely the despicable Gerlach will have his easiest victory yet.
This is going to be a big turnout election, blowing the likely voter models out of the water. They counted all the teabagger / republicans, but refused to count the hold-their-noses-and-vote-anyway democrats. It will turn out to be a normal midterm. Dems 56 in the Senate, with a possibility of 57 if McAdams wins.
In other news, Obama has a press conference scheduled for 1pm tomorrow, at which he is expected to officially turn over the government to the republicans. When the democrats end up holding both houses, he will have to do a quick rewrite to come up with a new excuse.
Don’t forget the kids the MSM won’t let anti GOP songs play but the kids got U tube
http://my.firedoglake.com/thingscomeundone/2010/11/01/republican-woman-stay-away-from-me/
Check the links minority kids are up and awake:)
you are probably right
I held my nose, the entire time
All the democrats I know are furious at Obama, they can care less about the moronic Tea Party.
It is snowing heavily in joe Miller’s biggest strongholds – the Mat-Su Valley and Kenai Peninsula. I’ve got three inches at my place in Wasilla in the past 90 minutes.
There were very few voters at the place where I went to vote (in heavily Democratic Silver Spring MD). Maybe a quarter to a third of the voters who were there around the same time in 2008.
Some clippings from TPM:
Misouri: “Voter turnout has been heavy this morning throughout the region”
Washington Post: “A record number of voters have cast early ballots for a midterm election.”
Pennsylvania: “Voter turnout is reportedly higher than normal, shocking polls workers”
Washington: “Secretary of State Sam Reed predicts that 66 percent of Washington’s 3.6 million voters – nearly 2.4 million – will vote in Tuesday’s election. His office says that would be the biggest participation since 1970.”
South Carolina: “Nearly 147,000 voters had cast absentee ballots as of Monday … The most recent high point for midterm absentee voting was 2006, when 75,651 ballots were cast”
what’s the latest on feingold and did we predict he would lose or hold his seat?
normally that’s great news for democrats, I suppose it might be bad news this election though
My guess was very close to the FDL average. I suppose it represents wishful thinking on my part, although what kind of a wish is it when you’re rooting for the servile corporate hacks?
http://www.wlos.com/shared/newsroom/top_stories/videos/wlos_vid_3192.shtml
There are people saying it si related to the election.
I’ll see your story and raise you by more disturbing news
Yeah the old “Were a Center Right Nation” bs. If that were the case 60-70% wouldn’t be in favor of Single Payer Health Care. This is why I will not watch the mainstream cable media’s coverage of today’s affairs.
This is ridiculous and I see no end in sight because the majority of Americans have no idea what to do. Even the Tea Party has been co-oped and driven out its Libertarian founders in favor of Corporate Funded RNC members and remnants of The Project For A New American Century.
Nader says Bloomberg might run as a Independent, I say fine, he can’t be bought he has too much money as it is. If anything he can pull Obama to the Left.
We’ll still have workable majorities in both Houses, the bought media just wants to have fights on TV, more eyeballs.
I just read the article. Thank you. It summarizes our country’s and our world’s situation nicely.
I read Der Speigel for years, waiting for this article. It’s finally come. Hope Asahi Shinbun, Le Monde, etc. pick it up. Especially Asahi. The Diet really needs to read it.
Der Spiegel. Damned Edit.