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In many Congressional elections, most close races tend to break in the same direction at the last minute–and this year is unlikely to be any different. If the bulk of undecided voters on the east coast decide at the polling station to vote for Republicans, there is a good chance that the same thing happened across America. Similarly, if, in the first few races called we find out the polling had slightly underestimated Democratic turnout, possibly because of problems with likely voter models due to sky-high conservative enthusiasm, a similar pattern will likely be repeated all night. With that in mind, here are twelve districts in the eastern part of the country to watch for signs of a national trend.
A really good (relatively speaking) night for Democrats:
VA-05 – Perriello, FL-22 – Klein, IN-09 – Hill, OH-16 – Boccieri
Polling says Democrats are expected to lose all four of these races. If Democrats manage to hold on in these districts, it would likely mean Democrats will outperform expectations and might just hold on to the majority in the House (i.e. 39 or fewer losses).
A bad-but-expected night for Democrats:
GA-02 – Bishop, WV-01 – (Open Democrat), VA-09 – Boucher, KY-06 – Chandler
Most all political observers are expecting a historically bad night for Democrats. The projections are that Democrats in the House of Representatives will suffer a net loss of between 50 and 60 seats, if not more. If Democrats manage to hold onto most of these seats, but not the more hotly contested seats mentioned above, their net loses will probably be about what is expected.
A massive Republican wave:
IN-02 = Donnelly, OH-18 – Space, KY-03 – John Yarmuth, NC-11 – Shuler
If Republicans start to win in these districts, in addition to the districts outlined above, we are likely seeing a really big wave that could result in Republicans winning far more races than even the historic numbers that are currently expected.
28 Comments
From today’s Courier-Journal on Yarmuth
The Herald-Leader didn’t appear to have a poll story today but IIRC, the last one I saw had Chandler in a toss-up
Sure, Let’s spend ALL our time on stuff that means NOTHING. In the meantime:
“The US Corporate tax rate is 35%. Care to guess what tax rate Google paid?
Bloomberg reports Google 2.4% Rate Shows How $60 Billion Is Lost to Tax Loopholes”.
It’s absolutely ansurd to think the Dems we elected care one hoot about the people who put them in office! Don’t these Dems. deserve to hald accountable for what theu do & don’t do while in office?
VOTE AGAINST EVERY DEMOCRATIC INCUMBENT UP FOR REELECTION TOMORROW, you owe it to yourself!
“I cannot take this election for granted,” Kucinich said. “We need immediate help to raise the funds to spend for last-minute media buys to make sure there is no question about the outcome. Please send a contribution.”
FU, Dennis!
Troll alert
Where are all the ignorant americans?
Most will be on TV calling themselves pundits election night.
What the USA currently has, is conservatives vs conservative politicians. “The Corporate Party = Dems and Republicans
Intelligent America, knows there is nothing Progressive about the Obama agenda of the last 20 months.
A lot of americans learned a valuable lesson from OBAMA, their GOVT has been hijack by Corporations. (Corporation = some of the leaders of these corporations make “the scary terrorist trying to destroy the USA with mail bombs” look like Saints)
ROME probably did not fall like this. One would hope ROME had a few intelligent people in charge, the USA is under the control of a bunch morons. Let us give ROME more respect.
How does Democracy End? With thunderous applause! look at the Tea Party.
Interpreting the NC vote.
If McIntyre (NC-07) is the only Dem to lose, it is going to be a passable night.
If McIntyre (NC-07) and Etheridge (NC-02) lose it is worrying but not disastrous.
If McIntyre (NC-07), Etheridge (NC-02), and Kissell (NC-08) lose, it is as predicted — bad.
If McIntyre (NC-07), Etheridge (NC-02), Kissell (NC-08), and Shuler (NC-12) lose, it is very bad.
If McIntyre (NC-07), Etheridge (NC-02), Kissell (NC-08), Shuler (NC-12), and Miller (NC-13) lose, it is a tropical storm of an election.
If McIntyre (NC-07), Etheridge (NC-02), Kissell (NC-08), Shuler (NC-12), Miller (NC-13), and Price (NC-04) lose it is a Class 1 hurricane of an election.
If McIntyre (NC-07), Etheridge (NC-02), Kissell (NC-08), Shuler (NC-12), Miller (NC-13), Price (NC-04), and Butterfield (NC-01) lose, it is a class 3 hurricane of an election.
If all of the Democrats, including Mel Watt lose, it is a class 5 hurricane of than election.
But if all are re-elected, there is a 50-50 chance, Democrats will hold the House.
My OoMA guess is that only McIntyre, Etheridge, and Kissell will go down.
And I hear that Shuler is measuring the drapes in the majority leader’s office.
Bishop brings home the bacon for his district, but he’s had ethics issues & is a poor fundraiser. Chandler had about a 5:1 CoH advantage going into the final month, and Boucher had a 7:1. But the composition of both their districts is overwhelmingly GOP.
If I had to place money today, I’d say:
Chandler – may win
Bishop – on the edge, could pull it off
Boucher – looks dicey, hope has a kickass turnout operation
Awesome.
That’s a post.
Rome turned into an empire when the big money bought the Senate and made it irrelevant to executive (Caesar’s) governance.
Rome fell when the privatized tax farmers could no longer collect taxes to pay for a military that was increasingly composed of foreign mercenaries from the colonies of the empire. And then, after several invasions, a move of the capital to Constantinople (like moving the US capital to Taiwan), and dueling emperors, it collapse in a whimper as the private security forces (lords) took over the protection of people in exchange for serfdom.
We are not quite as the declaration of the emperor and irrelevancy of Congress phase. But things could unwind much faster.
the duel capital in Constantinople is nothing like moving the US capital to Taiwan. By the time that happened that part of what is now Turkey had been under Roman rule for like 300 years. It would be more like moving the capital to Seattle.
One nice thing about the new setup is that you can quickly see the gist of troll themes and then just scroll, scroll, scroll….
Oh, I was thinkin’ it’d be Dubai.
I live in Southeast Florida and am in the FL-22 – Klein district. Bad news, from down here because he will not win this race. He hardly ran a campaign and he was outspent by Alan West like 3 to 1. I have been getting e-mails all day from his campaign asking for help for GOTV. I really wish it wasn’t so but West was out campaigning everyday and he bombarded the tv with negative ads.
I will not cry if Shuler loses.
How about just don’t vote at all? It would have the same effect and it has the bonus of not forcing you to pretend that there’s a difference between the Republibillionaires and the Demobillionaires parties.
You’re probably closer to the spirit of the thing.
Although in 300 years, Taiwan might be a state.
I would prefer that he is the only one, but he’s the Blue Dog in NC who has the best chance of getting re-elected according to the polls and local sentiment.
I certainly agree. But, I’m so fed up with the Dems I ELECTED I WANT at least a little closure!
Are any Democratic House members pissed off at Nancy, Harry, and Obama?
They should be!
It is hard to grasp the idea that all Democrats are complete fools.
I know some democrats are asking, what in the world we thinking following Obama? All we had to do was focus on the economy and main street.
Obama, Rahm, Gibbs, Axelrod, Jarett, Harry, and Nancy, are complete sell outs! It is impossible to make the GOP popular after 20 months, unless you intentionally wreck your party and attack the base of your party.
To those Democrats who got played for fools by Obama, go read the Art of War by Sun Tzu, because you all are clueless and deserve to stand in un-employment line, you will not be along, your belief in Obama resulted in un-employment staying at 10% or greater around the USA
I hear you loud and clear. But, take a moment to consider that just maybe not everyone’s dem’s are as bad as yours and maybe we have a little bit of a different perspective. You called me Tribal earlier. You do know that it’s part of a fundamengalist viewpoint to think that Everyone has to agree with your purview, right? You might not want to climb on that bandwagon. I understand that you’re pissed. But. But. I’m not going to take the oath you are demanding I embrace. And, the point is, that should be okay with you. Somewhere in your heart. Okay?
I don’t think anyone has a clear idea of how the election is going to go.
It seems really strange to me that the House projections are potentially all over the place, but many of the Senate contests are polling like they’re settled already.
I realize the Senate is 6 years (so only 33-35 up tomorrow), but how do the Democrats just lose 8 in the Senate and then another 80 in the House?
I think corporate media money has been pushing this idea of inevitable Republican landslide, in order to discourage Democratic voters, and I wonder whether (Friendly)FireDog-type frustration by the progressives isn’t contributing to that, too.
Actually, voting against the candidate you don’t wish to be elected has exactly twice the effect of just staying home.
On the other hand, voting for the opponent may be difficult without losing your lunch in the voting booth.
Decisions, decisions.
8 out of 33 – 35 is a slightly higher percentage than 80 out of 435 (or whatever the number is now).
I rather feel like our pres and representatives have not listened to us and now they want our votes. Sorry, it is a 2 way street. You don’t listen to me, I don’t vote for you and besides I am only learning from Obama who came out for the former republican in Rhode Island rather than endorsing his democratic candidate. Why should we vote Democrat if he doesn’t even support them?
I don’t believe you ever voted for a Democrat.
Message boards are filled with hirelings who sound just like you.
If you indeed did “elect these Democrats”, now is a good time to shoot yourself in the foot, which is the only shooting lesson the Republicans teach, or they would never win a single race.
Good point. I thought about that a bit, but concluded the opposite of you. Late night.
I agree with the sentiment, but not protesting in an organized fashion, and one that doesn’t harm yourself, does little good.
Everyone wanted to send Lyndon Johnson (who was leaving) a message, so they refused to vote for Humphrey. Or, they voted for Nixon. Better off, those ones?
I refuse to invest even a trip to the polls for these morons.