Tomorrow is election day, and PPP has just released a slew of polls on the most important Senate races. PPP found Republicans leading in Pennsylvania, Illinois, Alaska and Kentucky, and Democrats with the lead in California and West Virginia. Colorado, Nevada, and Washington are all likely too close to call.
Lean Republican
Kentucky
Rand Paul (R) 55
Jack Conway (D) 40
Illinois
Mark Kirk (R) 46
Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42
Pennsylvania
Pat Toomey (R) 51
Joe Sestak (D) 46
Alaska
Joe Miller (R) 37
Scott McAdams (D) 30
Lisa Murkowski (Write in) 30
Lean Democrat
West Virginia
Joe Manchin (D) 51
John Raese (R) 46
California
Barbara Boxer (D) 50
Carly Fiorina (R) 46
Toss-Up
Colorado
Ken Buck (R) 49
Michael Bennet (D) 48
Washington
Dino Rossi (R) 50
Patty Murray (D) 48
Nevada
Sharron Angle (R) 47
Harry Reid (D) 46
If these races break exactly as PPP polling dictates, the Democratic caucus would be reduced to only 51 members. On the other hand, if the three toss-up races each break for the Democrat instead of the Republican, the Dem caucus would be down to 54 members–still a substatial margin by historical measures.



34 Comments
Obama’s old Senate seat may go to a Republican? Sounds about right, no real change.
It’s shocking that Pennsylvania will be represented by the Santorum-clone Toomey.
Can PA cede the land west of Lancaster to Alabama?
Good One!!!
Washington is close how a Dino supporter hit a cute white girl at a rally where the heck is CNN with the 24 hr coverage or if your a Dem does even being a white woman not matter?
Not likely Kirk’s replacement to fill his seat in Congress is running a close race, Dem Rep Melissa Bean next door is also in a close race. If the Illinois GOP is having a wave election those two wealthy suburban districts should not be close.
It seems that wimmin don’t matter. Certainly no one has pointed out that most of the violence has been directed towards wimmin.
bunch of cowards. I thought they hated people of color, but i don’t see any of these enraged white guys taking a on someone of their own gender.
There’s a definite subtext here.
I suspect there’s more propaganda here than readily meets the eye…and it’s being used craftily as voter suppression…”Why bother if they’re going to win anyway?” …like that
Still Alexi is running commercials in Illinois with Obama saying Alexi is his friend Obama suffers if Alexi loses.
Alexi is a banker but the GOP has failed to really push his banks connections to home loan fraud.
So if Kirk loses then he loses in part because the GOP won’t criticize bankers in an anti banker election. Either way we can spin this to win.
Agreed just why do Tea Baggers hate women I am sure there are Dem Men at these protests but the Baggers always find women to attack why?
Questions for Sarah Palin
If it breaks so that the Democratic caucus is 51 members, does Lieberman decide to caucus with the Republicans making a 50-50 split?
Biden as VP decides the tie so I think Dems keep a majority even if Joe joins the GOP. Unless of course the GOP wins one more seat.
The Corporate Party Plan to Stay in Power
Program Name: “THE OBAMA HOPE A DOPE
2008 Republicans had no chance of winning, so the corporate party created a TROJAN HORSE named Obama to keep a real progressive out of the White House. (Obama would talk like a progressive, but his Corporate Bosses knew he would govern like Bush.)
2008-2010 Obama, the corporate dems and the republicans would do everything in their power to wreck the Democratic Party.
To get the GOP back in power after Bush, would take work, and Obama has prove his Corporate Bosses right again, Obama attack every part of the Democratic Party Base.
2010 MID TERMS, are here and as Plan Obama has delivered the USA back to the GOP.
(The corporate media is already telling the ignorant americans that Obama will have to govern from the center right? WOW!!! The corporate media views the american people as complete morons, only ignorant americans would believe Obama has been governing like a progressive.)
2010-2012 Obama like Clinton (Clinton gave the USA NAFTA, Obama gave the USA the Bob Dole Health Care Bill)
Obama will pull a Clinton, and say he is force to work with the republicans. When every intelligent american knows Obama is a republican and has always been a republican. (Obama knew, that no black republican could ever get elected, ask Colin Powell.)
2012 Obama will not get re-elected as president. In 2012 the corporate Bosses know that a republican will win. (Obama will attack the base of the democratic party, with vengency the next 20 months, to make sure that he loses in 2012)
What one must understand is that an average Democratic President could have destroyed the GOP and kept the Democrats in power for years. An average Democratic President would have made Job 1, Job 2, and Job 3 fixing the economy, and expanded the base of his party, Just like FDR done.
Most elected officials do everything in their power to get re-elected, not OBAMA, he has done everything he could do to lose in 2012!
The so call liberal media, own by rich republicans, ignored the fact that 47% of democrats want Obama to be primaried in 2012.
I find it difficult to believe that Joe Miller has a 7 point lead over Murkowski and McAdams in Alaska because I read articles late last week that said his support was plunging out of sight after he admitted to lying in order to conceal that he was forced to resign from a job he had for misuse of computers for political purposes. I specifically recall that McAdams and Murkowski had passed him in the polls and his campaign was basically over.
Does anyone think an anti immigrant Tea Bagger can vote for John McCain after he said white people can’ t pick crops even at $50 an hour? Thats like me voting for Joe Lieberman.
Does anyone think that Satan Girl can get truly religious people’s votes? How many GOPers have Immigrant Nannies this election?
Joe Miller hates government spending but seems to take every little bit he can get.
Mark Kirk voted for tax cuts to outsource jobs to China?
If you can’t brag at church about who you voted for without fear of being laughed at chances are you won’t show up on election day.
Thats the reason the Daily Show rally got more than twice the people Glen Beck did.
Agreed :) I find all polling this election funny. A party that expects to win would not be screaming voter fraud Acorn, no more Al Frankins and be sending poll watchers/thugs and lawyers to suppress minority votes.
A party with supporters who expected to win would not be hitting white women or any women for that matter.
Are White Women who are getting hit being hit because they by supporting Dems make the Tea Baggers think they are in love with Obama and this makes the White guys jealous?
Republicans think that will always win because liberals will fight among themselves and not seriously oppose Republicans. So far it seems to be true. Too bad that a lot of progressives are going to be going down with the Blue Dogs. We now have a deeper hole to crawl out of. But that’s OK because things will get so bad that the country will snap back to progressive policies. Or that’s not OK because the corporations so control everything that democracy is dead, so why bother to fight.
It is not only the right that is going off the rails.
It’s time to start planning for a 435-seat progressive campaign (mixing third party and Democratic candidate depending on location) for 2012. Which means that persuading folks has to start now. Candidates, campaigns, communications strategies, financing plans, get-out-the-vote strategy, filing papers, FEC reporting operation have to be in place by January 2012. If progressives can’t get that done, then they might as well start getting their passports and setting up their flights out of the country. Because without that broadscale organization and action, there is no way that your choices won’t be between the lesser of two evils.
He doesn’t. It will be either Murkowski or McAdams. It depends on whether Democrats vote for McAdams or hedge their bets by writing in Murkowski. And how many folks write in Murkowski.
Jon,
David Dayen reported last Thursday,
Link.
How recent is the PPP poll and do you believe it’s reliable?
William Black has a fresh cross-post already in progress: If Obama Thinks the Response to the S&L Debacle Failed, Why Is He Adopting It?
I don’t have much faith in PPP polls but even less in one showing Miller in the lead when every other poll shows him nosediving. Sounds like bullsh*t to me.
If Lieberman thinks he can be an even bigger prick by staying in the Democratic caucus and undermining it from within, he’ll do that.
The PPP poll giving Rossi the lead should be heavily discounted. It was taken in the past few days, but most Washington voters vote by mail and started voting 18 days ago. Most ballots have already been cast. During this time, Murray has never been behind in the many polls that have been taken, except one Rasmussen poll, which is well known for GOOP bias in defining likely voters. Also, PPP’s track record is not that great.
FiveThirtyEight.com, which looks at all polls and trends, today is predicting Murray has an 81.4 percent chance of winning and that her share of the vote will be 51.6 percent to Rossi’s 48.4 percent. If you live in Washington make certain your ballot is mailed so that it will be postmarked on or before election day. There are a lot of other progressive races at stake as well as several important ballot initiatives and constitutional amendment questions, so please make the effort.
Frankly, I’m having a hard time giving a shit. With Reid and Pelosi in charge and large Dem majorities, the Obama administration produced a giant whopping nothing that I cared about – i.e. HCR reform that didn’t, financial reform that didn’t, a stimulus that didn’t, continued support for DADT and DOMA, continuation of Bush’s policies on Guantanamo, interrogation, etc., and expansion of the war in Afghanistan. And we’re still looking at extending Bush’s tax cuts and implementing the recomendations of Obama’s Catfood Commission in the lame-duck session. At least with the GOP in charge we’ll be getting fucked by people who won’t pretend to care.
Hi, Mason. I took a look at that poll (I live in Alaska) and the demographics show some sampling bias. The respondents were, on average, older and more female than the Alaska population, and the poll was taken by phone. I think that rural and Native Alaskans were probably badly underrepresented, although I think you could make an argument that rural white Alaskans, at least, are less likely to vote (there’s a big GOTV effort in the villages, and the Alaska Federation of Natives endorsed Murkowski and is campaigning for her pretty hard).
So, I think that given the demographics of the sample it probably overstates Miller’s support, but I’m not really clear on the rest. Young people seem more likely to vote McAdams but it seems to me (and this is just a guess) people without phones are more likely to vote Murkowski. But on the other hand women are overrepresented in the sample and another guess is that they’re more likely to vote Murkowski, as well (she’s positioned as the heir to Ted Stevens’s keep-the-pork-flowing role) and the poll might show more support for Murkowski than she’s actually got. I think this is actually very good news for McAdams but I’m just guessing.
Now we’ll get the worst of both world’s as they say. The next two yrs. were going to watch as Obama basically begs the GOP not to hit him in the face as long as he does whatever they want. Of course he’ll claim that it’s all the people’s will. I hope they Impeach the prick anyway and save us all from having to primary him.
What difference will it make what the Democratic majority is? They didn’t do jackshit when they had 60 votes, they won’t do jackshit when they have 54 votes, they wouldn’t do jackshit if they had 80 votes. Fuck the Democratic Party. I’m voting Socialist Party from now on. It won’t make the slightest difference because Democrats today are basically disorganized Republicans, and this way at least I can vote my conscience.
Amen.
I’ll leave it at this…..Circa November 2008…”THE BEST MAN FOR THE JOB WAS A WOMAN!
And one more thing…Mr Nice guy Obama got steamrolled by the Repubs. He was playing the “Can’t we all just get along” game while the repubs had their nightsticks out smashing him over the head. If Obama wants to get relected, and after tomorrow I don’t know how that will be possible, he better realize that the republicans HATE HATE HATE him and they will not relent until they have removed him from office either by vote or by some other process now that they will have control of the House of Reps. He let them walk all over him and we are paying for it.
I believe and hope you’re right.
Now that we have very aggressive tax-breaks-for-propaganda (what the tax payers paid for in “Deregulation” and “faith-based initiatives” just to mention a few things) the dollars poured into to the Media-Politico A-Go-Go really is chump change relative to the corporate benefits if folks fall for it. PSA: Wall Street Executive Air brought to you by The Villagers and their pals.
I agree. Whether the Openly Conservative Billionaires’ Party gains a majority or the Thinly Disguised Conservative Billionaires’ Party retains its majority, why should I care? It’s not like either of them gives a damn about anybody who isn’t rich. Whichever wins it’s still just professional wrestling.
Bill Maher is a Democratic Party apologist no doubt, but he did hit upon something that explains all this. In his New Rules rant about Brett Favre and his sexting issue, he made the connection between why Favre did what he did and why white males with their mostly exclusive support have made pseudo-celebrities out of what he called “The MILFS of the New Right, (Sara Palin, Christine O’Donnell, and Michele Bachman). White males have enjoyed dominance for so long that they harken back to the days of the idiot housewife, which would explain why white males are not coming to the defense of women being attacked by other white males at political rallies.