FDL’s Hot House: (10/31 Update) 108 Congressional Races to Watch

There has been little change yesterday but I have added updates to three races:

IA-02: Dave Loebsack (D), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) (Rothenberg named Loebseck one of five Dems who could be surprised). It should be noted Iowa has suffered relatively little in this economic downturn and has unemployment of only 6.6%, which should help Democrats. (Update 10/31: In what might be a worrying sign for Loebsack and Boswell an Iowa poll found the GOP winning the congressional generic ballot in Iowa by a margin of 48 – 41.)

IA-03: Leonard Boswell (D), Brad Zaun. An internals Boswell poll has him winning 47-38 and an internal DCCC poll has him winning 49-41 (Update 10/31: In what might be a worrying sign for Loebsack and Boswell an Iowa poll found the GOP winning the congressional generic ballot in Iowa by a margin of 48 – 41.)

NV-03: Dina Titus (D), Joe Heck (R) $1,204,552 to $362,139. This race has been polling extremely close for months and the DCCC is still playing heavily in the district. If Titus lose it will probably have a lot to do with how incredibly Nevada has been hammered by the economic downturn. (Update 10/31: final Mason-Dixon poll of the race found Heck with a big lead Heck 53 – Titus 43.)

The full list–which has grown to 108 hot congressional races–follows, with the newest updates highlighted in green:

  1. AL-02: Bobby Bright (D) has been bringing home the bacon to his district, but will it be enough to keep him ahead of Martha Roby (R)? He’s taking local heat for accepting ads from the Chamber of Commerce when the White House is attacking them for accepting foreign money. Roby outraised Bright for the 3Q, but Bright has more cash on hand ($578,694 to $300,271). DCCC polling have him with a huge 12 point lead, one of the largest for any “endangered” Democrats they have released.
  2. AR-01: (Open) Marion Berry’s seat. Republican Rick Crawsford is ahead by 12 according to the Hill. This race is a likely lose.
  3. AR-02: (Open) Vic Snyder’s old seat. Another red district open seat almost assure to go to Republicans. GOP Tim Griffith lead by 12 according to Talk Business.
  4. AR-03: New Talk Business Research and Hendrix College poll shows Mike Ross (D)  in good shape going into the election, leading Beth Anne Rankin (R) 52-34.  Like Mike Beebe, the poll indicates Ross is a “rare Democrat” who is not losing Independents in Arkansas.
  5. AZ-01: Kirkpatrick (D) was triaged by the DCCC two weeks ago, but Stu Rothenberg says they’re back in again. Two weeks ago The Hill poll found Kirkpatrick losing 39-46.
  6. AZ-03: Daily Kos/PPP has Jon Hubbard (D) ahead of Ben Quayle (R) 46-44.  It would be a thing of beauty for Quayle to get whipped in an R+9 district in an election year with a huge GOP wave.
  7. AZ-05: Harry Mitchell (D) is trailing Dave Schweikert (R) by three points according to a recent The Hill poll. Mitchell does hold a huge fund raising advantage at this point though.
  8. AZ-07: Two recent polls show Raul Grijalva (D) in trouble.  Summit Consulting Group showed McClurg (R) leading Grijalva 39-37 on Oct. 5-6, and Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies found Grijalva leading by 2 points on Sept. 29.  Sarah Palin endorsed McClurg on Monday.  The DCCC has entered the race, spending $63,000 for the cash poor Grijalva. Sen. John McCain and Jon Kyl are up with an ad trying to whip up anger over Grijalva supporting the boycott of his own state. Anger over that issue could make the closeness of this race an outlier.
  9. AZ-08: Gabby Giffords (D), Jesse Kelly (R).  Giffords has an enormous cash advantage, with $1,344,412 cash on hand, to Kelly’s $113,878.
  10. CA-11: Jerry McNerney (D), David Harmer (R).  McNerney has $1.5 million to Harmer’s $489,278. SurveyUSA poll from last week found Harmer with a six point lead.
  11. CA-18: Dennis Cardoza (D), Mike Berryhill (R).  Cardoza $508,064 to Berryhill’s $5,920, but Berryhill has been a self-funder. SurveyUSA had Cardoza 50-44 on October 5-6.
  12. CA-20: GOP Challenger Andy Vidak has more cash on hand than Jim Costa (D), $206,775 to $164,493. A SurveyUSA poll from over a month ago had Costa 48 to Vidak’s 46 in this district hard hit by the foreclosure crisis. The DCCC started spending in Costa’s district this week. (Update 10/26: the latest SurveyUSA poll of this race is very bad news for Costa. It found him trailing by 10 points. Costa 42 – Vidak 52. In response to this poll the DCCC quickly sent out an internal from a few days ago show it Costa 47 – Vidak 41)
  13. CA-44: Dem Bill Hedrick come very close to defeating incumbent Republican Ken Calvert and is trying again, although this year the climate is much less favorable for Hedrick.
  14. CA-47: Loretta Sanchez’s (D) untoward comments on Spanish radio has left an opening for Van Tran.  Republican pollsters McHenry & Associates recently showed Sanchez 45 – Tran 43. (Update 10/26: Politico has an interesting story about how the independent candidate Cecilia Iglesias might hurt Sanchez in this race driven as much by ethnic identity as partisanship. I personal doubt Iglesias will be a real factor but if the race is close enough every vote counts.)
  15. CO-03: John Salazar (D), Scott Tipton (R). An indication of what a mess the independent expenditure extravaganza is for the GOP: Americans United for Life went up on the air with an ad attacking his brother, Ken Salazar. (Update 10/27: The Hill poll: Tipton 47 – Salazar 43)
  16. CO-04: Betsey Markey (D) has only $307,781 on hand to Cory Gardner’s (R) $1,127,739.  The DCCC triaged her. Two weeks ago Markey was slightly behind 41-44 according to a poll from The Hill. Too bad Gardner was up on the air attacking her for a vote made by Ed Markey.  #amateurhour/ (Update 10/26 via SwingStateProject.com: Reports are that Markey is likely one of the last House member to be triaged by the DCCC, not a good sign for her.)
  17. CO-07: Ed Perlmutter (D), Ryan Frazier (R).  Magellan (R): 40 Frasier-39 Perlmutter
  18. CT-04: Jim Himes (D), Dan Debicella (R). Himes only has $669,731 on hand to Debicella’s $447,488. Merriman River Group/CT Capitol Report: Himes 49 – Debicella 47. (Update 10/29: New Merriman River Group/CT Capitol Report poll found it Himes 46.1 – Debicella 48.)
  19. CT-05: Chris Murphy (D), Sam Caliguri (R). Merriman River Group/CT Capitol Report: Caligiuri 50 – Murphy 44, (10/3-5). (Update 10/29: New Merriman River Group/CT Capitol Report poll shows Murphy 45.5 – Caliguri 46.9.)
  20. FL-02: Allen Boyd (D), Steve Southerland (R). On Tuesday, Sunshine State News/VSS showed Southerland +12. (Update 10/27: The Hill poll: Boyd 38 – Southerland 50. Boyd almost lost his primary to an underfunded candidate, which is not a good sign. This seat looks lost.)
  21. FL-08: Alan Grayson (D), Dan Webster (R).  Grayson raised more money than any Democrat in 3Q, and now enjoys a $1,209,617 advantage to Webster. It is very rare for an incumbent with such a massive fund raising advantage to lose. If he can get it within 2 points, Grayson runs a crack turnout operation. A Sunshine State News poll had it Grayson 36 – Webster 43. (Update 10/26: The most recent Sunshine State News poll now has it Grayson 41 – Webster 48 with TEA party candidate Peg Dunmire at 4%.)
  22. FL-22: Ron Klein (D) $270,498 to Allen West (R) $1,629,394. Wilson Research Strategies (R) had West 48 – Klein 42 on 9/20-22, and Sunshine State News has West over Klein by 47-43 on 10/19. West is so down right crazy though it is hard to imagine undecideds don’t break for Klein on election day.
  23. FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas (D), Sandy Adams (R). Hamilton Campaigns (D): Kosmas 45 – Adams 43 9/22-23. A NRCC poll found Adams with a 12 point lead. The DCCC has not been spending for Kosmas.
  24. FL-25: (Open, currently held by GOP) (Update 10/28: A new Sunshine State News poll shows this race dead even. David Rivera (R) 44 – Joe Garcia (D) 43. A pick up here would be a big win for Democrats.)
  25. GA-02: Sanford Bishop (D), Mike Keown (R) Lester & Associates (D): Bishop 50 – Keown 40 10/7-10
  26. GA-08: Jim Marshall (D), Austin Scott (R): Grove Insight (D): Marshall 48-Scott 36 9/13-15. (Update 10/27: The Hill poll: Marshall 37 – Scott 50. Bad news.)
  27. HI-01: Charles Djou (R), Colleen Hanabusa (D) The Hill/Penn Schoen Berland: Djou 45 – Hanabusa 41 10/2-7. Traditionally  it has been very hard to poll the Japanese community of Hawaii which is likely to support Hanabusa. For example Hanabusa significantly outperformed the polls in the special election. (Update 10/25: a new poll for Hawaii News Now found Djou 48 – Hanabusa 46.) (Update 10/28: Civil Beat has Djou 45.3 – Hanabusa 49.5. This remains one of the few bright spots for Democrats.)
  28. IA-02: Dave Loebsack (D), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) (Rothenberg named Loebseck one of five Dems who could be surprised). It should be noted Iowa has suffered relatively little in this economic downturn and has unemployment of only 6.6%, which should help Democrats. (Update 10/31: In what might be a worrying sign for Loebsack and Boswell an Iowa poll found the GOP winning the congressional generic ballot in Iowa by a margin of 48 – 41.)
  29. IA-03: Leonard Boswell (D), Brad Zaun. An internals Boswell poll has him winning 47-38 and an internal DCCC poll has him winning 49-41 (Update 10/31: In what might be a worrying sign for Loebsack and Boswell an Iowa poll found the GOP winning the congressional generic ballot in Iowa by a margin of 48 – 41.)
  30. ID-01: Walt Minnick (D), Paul Labrador (R). This is a seat Democrats should have lost but Minnick will likely be saved by the simple fact that Labrador is a truly horrible nominee. (Update 10/27: Mason-Dixon has Minnick with a small lead Minnick 44 – Labrador 41. If Labrador wasn’t such a terrible candidate, Minnick would be dead instead of heading to what looks like a narrow victory.)
  31. IL-08: Melissa Bean (D), Joe Walsh (R). $924,678 to $7,130: America/QuincyNews.org: Bean 41 – Walsh 41 9/28
  32. IL-10: (Open) This is one of Democrats best picks. In Republican Mark Kirk’s old district Democrat Dan Seals is up by 12 according to The Hill.
  33. IL-11: Debbie Halvorson, Adam Kinsinger. The Hill/ANGA: Kinzinger 49 – Halvorson 31 9/28-30. Even her internal polls show her trailing by four.
  34. IL-14: Bill Foster (D), Randy Hultgren (R): The Tarrance Group (R): Hultgren 44 – Foster 38. The Hill/ANGA: Hultgren 43 – Foster 42.
  35. IL-17: Phil Hare (D), Robert Schilling (R). Public Opinion Strategies (R): Hare 38 – Schilling 37 9/26-27. The Hill/ANGA: Schilling 45 – Haring 38. In comparison to Iowa, Illinois has been hit bad and saw unemployment jump up dramatically to 9.9%.
  36. IN-02: Joe Donnelly (D), Jackie Walorski (R). EPIC-MRA: Donnelly 48 – Walorksi 39 (10/3). Donnelly’s powerful GOTV operation, aided by the UAW, will be an indication of how much early field organizing pays off for the Democrats. (Update 10/29: Most recent EPIC-MRA poll shows some modest tightening. Donnelly 48 – Walorksi 43.)
  37. IN-08: (Open) Republican Larry Bucshon is favored to take Brad Ellsworth’s old seat.
  38. IN-09: Baron Hill (D), Todd Young (R). The DCCC has dropped big money in defense of Hill, who is fighting to keep his seat. (Update 10/27: The Hill Poll: Hill 46 – Young 44.)
  39. KY-03: John Yarmuth (D) (Update 10/28: A new Bluegrass Poll has Yarmuth with only a four-point lead over his Republican opponent, Todd Lally, 50 – 46. While there is not much time for Lally to close the gap, it is close enough to make it worth keeping an eye on.)
  40. KY-06: (Updated 10/25 Incumbent Dem. Ben Chandler is only has a four point lead over GOP Andy Barr according to a new Mason-Dixon poll. Chandler 48 – Barr 44.)
  41. KS-3: (Open) Democrat Dennis Moore’s wife Stephene Moore is running to replace him against Kevin Yoder (R). Yoder is viewed as the favorite.
  42. LA-2: Joseph Cao (R), Cedric Richmond (D). Cao won in this extremely blue seat in 2008 because he was running increased the clearly crooked William Jefferson.  Democrats expect to take this blue seat back now that they have a normal candidate.
  43. LA-3: (Open) GOP Jeff Landry narrowly favored for Melancon’s old seat.
  44. MA-04: Barney Frank (D).  Polling has put him down, but it will cost the GOP a lot of money for a seat they can’t keep.  Probably won’t be a priority. Frank has just injected $200,000 of his own money into the race. (Update 10/25: a new Boston Globe poll found Frank 46 – Bielat 33. Looks like good for Frank.)
  45. MA-10: (Open) This is a very close race between Republican Jeffrey Perry and Democrat William Keating. WGBH poll has Keating 46 – Perry 43. (Update 10/25: a new Boston Globe poll found Keating  37 – Perry 33.)
  46. MD-01: Frank Kratovil (D), Andy Harris (R). In this deep read district Kratovil should be trailing but double digits in this environment but he has been doing remarkably well. Polling has him within the margin of error and the DCCC is still spending heavily on the race. The Hill/ANGA had it Harris 43 – Kratovil 40. (Update 10/26: The latest poll for the Baltimore Sun shows the race tied 40 -40. It is remarking about the Kratovil is doing so well in this district this year.)
  47. ME -01: Chellie Pingree (D) (Update 10/30: Pingree is now losing to his Republican opponent Dean Scontras according to a MaineToday Media poll. Pingree 41 – Scontras 45.)
  48. ME-02: Mike Michaud (D) (Update 10/30: According to a MaineToday Media poll Michaud has only a four point lead over GOP Jason Levesque. Michaud 44 – Levesque 40.)
  49. MI-1: (Open) The race to replace Dem Bart Stupak is very close.  The Hill found Gary McDowell (D) 39 – Dan Benishek (R) 42. (Update 10/25: Detroit Free Press Poll found it McDowell 40 – Benishek 42.)
  50. MI-07: Mark Schauer (D), Tim Walberg (R) $1,313,384 to $451,085. The Hill/ANGA had the race tied, and a new Detroit Free Press poll has Schauer up by six. With a massive fundraising advantage and tied in the polls, Schauer is in better shape than most endangered freshman right now. (Update 10/28: A poll for WLNS has Schauer 50 – Walberg 43. While the race is tight, it looks like Schauer will hold on to his seat.)
  51. MI-09: Gary Peters (D), Andrew Rackowski (R). In September Rossman Group/Team Telcom: Raczkowski 45 – Peters 41 but Detroit Free Press has it Peter 48 – Raczkowski 43.
  52. MI-15: It was hard to believe John Dingall (D) was in trouble when a poll in early October showed him trailing Rob Steele (R) by 4 points.  A poll released yesterday by Free Press showed him leading Steele by 17 points, but Dingell isn’t taking any chances: Bill Clinton comes to Ann Arbor on Sunday to campaign for him.
  53. MN-01: Tim Walz (D), Randy Lee Demmer (R). A Recent SurveyUSA poll had Walz 47 – Demmer 42. (Update 10/28: This is some good news for Dems. SuveryUSA poll released yesterday has Walz gaining slightly. Walz 50 – Demmer 41. It looks like Walz should hold on.)
  54. MN-08: Jim Oberstar (D) (Update 10/30: It would be pretty amazing if this old bull lost in this relatively blue district, yet the most recent SurveyUSA poll out yesterday has him with only a one point lead. Oberstar 47 – Chip Cravaack (R) 46)
  55. MO-04: Ike Skelton (D),  Vicky Hartzler (R). The DCCC is spending big to protect this old bull, and it looks like the NRCC is triaging Hartzler. (Update 10/30: Missouri State University poll has Skelton 45.7 – Hartzler 38.8)
  56. MS-01: Travis Childer (D) internals from Anzalone Liszt (D): Childers 46-Alan Nunnelee (R) 41 8/30-9/1. The Hill poll found it Childers 39 – Nunnelee 44.
  57. MS-04: Gene Taylor (D), Steve Palazzo (R). Taylor’s internals say he is up by eight, but a poll commissioned by Palazzo released yesterday has him up by 2.
  58. NC-02: Bob Etheridge (D), Renee Ellmers (R). (Update 10/29: This is not good news for Democrats. A new Civitas Poll reads Etheridge 41 – Ellmers 46.)
  59. NC-07: Mike McIntyre (D), Ilario Pantano (R). SuveryUSA Poll from end of Sept has it effectively tied McIntyre 45 – Pantano 46
  60. NC-08: Larry Kissell (D), Harold Johnson (R). This another race the DCCC is investing heavily in. SurveyUSA found it also effectively tied Kissell 46 – Johnson 45.
  61. NC-11: Heath Shuler (D), Jeff Miller (R) SurveyUSA: Shuler 45-Miller 44 7/22-25
  62. NE-02: (Update 10/25: Incumbent Republican Lee Terry has only a five point lead over Democrat Tom White according to the first public poll of the race. While close enough to be worth in this environment it seems unlikely to flip. Omaha World-Herald poll Terry 44 – White 39.)
  63. ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy (D), Rick Berg (R) Rasmussen: Berg 48 – Pomeroy 45 9/20-21. (Update 10/27: The Hill poll: Pomeroy 45 – Berg 44)
  64. NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter (D), Frank Guinta (R). The Hill poll just out has Shea-Porter down by 5, Shea-Porter 42 – Guinta 47.
  65. NH-02: (Open) Ann McLane Kuster (D), Charlie Bass (R). Kuster manage to build of significant grass roots support and significantly out fund raising former Congressman Bass. The Hill found Kuster 42 – Bass 45. The DCCC spending indicates they think they can keep this one. Bass as a former Rep. is probably not the best candidate in this anti-Washington year.
  66. NJ-03:John Adler (D), Jon Runyon (R) $1,662,763 to $403,662. Rutger-Eagleton Poll from late Sept has Adler in good shape Adlder 40 – Ranyon 31. The presence of an actual third party Tea Party candidate should also help Alder. (Update 10/27: there are two new independent polls of this race. Monmouth has Adler losing by five points, Alder 43 – Runyon 48. But the Rutger-Eagleton poll has the race completely tied 44-44.)
  67. NM-01: Martin Heinrich (D), Jon Barela (R). Albuqurque Journal poll from late Sept. Had Heinrich leading 48-41.
  68. NM-02: Harry Teague (D), Steve Pearce (R) ($739,771 to $885,854) Teague is under funded and trailing according to The Hill poll Teague 42 – Pearce 46. That is a combo that indicates he is in bad shape.
  69. NV-03: Dina Titus (D), Joe Heck (R) $1,204,552 to $362,139. This race has been polling extremely close for months and the DCCC is still playing heavily in the district. If Titus lose it will probably have a lot to do with how incredibly Nevada has been hammered by the economic downturn. (Update 10/31: final Mason-Dixon poll of the race found Heck with a big lead Heck 53 – Titus 43.)
  70. NY-01: Tim Bishop (D), Randy Altschuler (R). The three way GOP primary in this race was brutal and probably hurt Altschuler in the general. Bishops is in good shape with a recent Siena poll (PDF) showing Bishop 51-Altschuler 39.
  71. NY-19: John Hall (D), Nan Hayworth (R). Recent poll by Monmouth University showed Hall +1. Siena has it Hall 43 – Hayworth 46. The Hill has it tied 43-43. A true toss up.
  72. NY-20: Scott Murphy (D), Chris Gibson (R). Siena poll from last month had Murphy 54 – Gibson 37 yet Gibson’s recent internals claim he is now up by two. (Update 10/26 in a surprising reversal of fortune Siena now has it Murphy 42 – Gibson 51. It is hard to believe an 17 point deficit was turned into a nine point lead in only a month.)
  73. NY-22: Maurice Hinchey (D), George Phillips (R). Phillips “good news” internals showed Hinchey leading by seven, but Magellan has them tied 43-43 on 10/19.
  74. NY-23: Bill Owens (D), Matt Doheny (R). Even without Doug Hoffman splitting the vote, Owens is polling well. Siena (PDF) has it Owens 44 – Doheny 39, and that is only if Hoffman supporters know he has dropped out to support Doheney. (Update 10/28: Siena poll (PDF) released to day has it Owens 40 – Doheny 37. Interestingly, what is saving Owens is that Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman is still grabbing 15% of the vote even though he has stopped his campaign. If Democrats keep this seat it, will be a very lucky break.)
  75. NY-24: Mike Arcuri (D), Richard Hanna (R). GOP polster McLaughlin: Hanna 46 – Arcuri 43 (10/6-7), but The Hill just found Arcuri with a 10-point lead: Arcuri 47 – Hanna 37. (Update 10/27: A new Siena poll released today is showing Acuri 48 – Hanna 43. While still close, I expect Acuri is going to keep his seat.)
  76. NY-25: Dan Maffei (D),  Ann Marie Buerkle (R). Recent Siena poll sponsored by the Syracuse Post-Standard says Maffei +12.  Clinton was to campaign for Maffei this week. In all the New York races Democrats might benefit from just how horrible a candidate,Carl Palidino, the Republican nominee for governor is. He should make it harder for the GOP to run turnout in the state and might be tainting the party as crazy in the mind of some independent voters this election.
  77. NY-29: (Open) Massa’s old seat is viewed as a likely GOP pickup for Tom Reed
  78. OH-01: Steve Driehaus (D), Steve Chabot (R). Despite a tough race the DCCC is giving Driehaus only token support. With a SurveyUSA poll from earlier this month show Chabot 53- Driehaus 41 the seat looks lost.
  79. OH-06: Charlie Wilson (D), Bill Johnson (R)
  80. OH-13: Betty Sutton (D), Tom Ganley (R). Ayres McHenry (R): Sutton 43-Ganley 41 8/16-19.
  81. OH-15: Mary Jo Kilroy (D), Steve Stivers (R), $187,863 to $1,278,985. Jo Kilroy has been cut off by the DCCC and The Hill found her down by nine. This seat looks lost.
  82. OH-16: John Boccieri (D), Jim Renacci (R). The Hill found Boccieri 39 – Renacci 42.
  83. OH-18: Zack Space (D), Bob Gibbs (R) ($1,392,458 to $215,308). Both the GOP and DCCC seem to agree Space is in trouble. He has a huge fund raising advantage which might end up saving him. For all the Ohio races the problem for Democrats is the economy. The state has been hammered in the downturn. If Dem lose big here the foreclosure crisis and unemployment is probably the big cause. The one piece of good news for Democrats in Ohio though is they seem to be doing a good job of getting their supporters to vote early.
  84. OR-05: Kurt Schrader (D), Scott Bruun (R). Internals from Bruun show him winning by four. Oregon is a vote by mail state though so I don’t think it will see a large turnout gap which should benefit Schrader, but SurveyUSA has him down 51-41 to Brunn on 10/19. (Update 10/26: A new Elway Poll found Schrader 50 – Bruun 38. As we have seen in the Senate race Elway’s polls are much friendly to Democrats that SurveyUSA or PPP.)
  85. PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper (D), Mike Kelly (R). The Hill has Dahlkemper down by 13 points. She appears to be a dead women walking.
  86. PA-07: (Open) The race he is effectively tied According to The Hill: Bryan Lentz (D) 39 – Patrick Meehan (R) 40.
  87. PA-08: Patrick Murphy, Mike Fitzpatrick. Monmouth poll found Murphy 46 – Fitzpatrick 51 but recently The Hill has it Murphy 46 – Fitzpatrick 43.
  88. PA-10: Chris Carney (D), Tom Marino (R). Last week the Times Leader Poll found Marino 44 – Carney 38, but The Hill has this race tied, 41-41. (Update 10/28: The Times Leader poll out today shows small movement toward Marino, Carney 38 – Marino 47. I don’t expect an incumbent to overcome an 11-point deficit with only days to go before the election.)
  89. PA-11: Paul Kanjorski (D), Lou Barletta (R). The Times Leader Poll: Barletta 43 – Kanjorski 41. Recent polling of the PA Senate race has shown Democrat Joe Sestak improving; it could be this is just a case of Democrats in the state getting more engaged and helping the party across the board by closing the projected turnout gap. (Update 10/27: The Hill poll: Kanjorski 43 – Barletta 48. This is a steep hole for an incumbent to climb out of.) (Update 10/28: Some good news for Democrats is that the most recent Times Leader Poll shows the race moving significantly in Kanjorski’s direction. He now has a large lead in this new poll, Kanjorski 47 – Barletta 39.  Interestingly, the result diverges greatly from the recent Hill poll.)
  90. RI-01: (Open, currently held by Democrats) (Update 10/29: The NBC 10-Quest Research poll has Democrat Cicilline at 42%, Republican John Loughlin at 40%.)
  91. SC-05: John Spratt (D), Mick Mulvaney (R). (Update 10/27: The Hill poll: Spratt 39 – Mulvaney 49. I had heard this seat was a potential pick up, and now, based on the first public poll, I can see why.)
  92. SD-AL: Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D), Kristi Noem (R). An internal for Herseth-Sandlin from late Sept had her winning 51-38. A DCCC poll from earlier this month had her winning 50-41 but a Rasmussen poll from two weeks ago has it Noem 47 – Herseth-Sandlin 44. (Update 10/26: The newly released Argus Leader Poll has the race effectively tied, Noem 45 – Herseth-Sandlin 43.) (Update 10/27: The Hill poll: Herseth-Sandlin 45 – Noem 42.)
  93. TN-04: Lincoln Davis (D), Scott DesJarlais (R). Desjarlais internals have him winning 45-40.
  94. TN-06: (Open) Bart Gordon’s seat is likely going to the GOP Diane Black.
  95. TN-08: (Open) Republican Stephen Fincher ahead in Tanner’s old seat by 10 points. Dem’s have effectively forfeited this seat
  96. TX-17: Chet Edwards (D), Bill Flores (R). Edwards has a big fundraising advantage, but his district is extremely red and this is a bad year, Expect to see a lot of party line voting. Even Edwards internals have him down four. (Update 10/27: Things don’t look good for incumbent Dem Chet Edwards. According to The Hill poll, he is trailing Republican Bill Flores by 12 points.)
  97. TX-23: Ciro Rodriguez (D), Quico Canseco (R) ($108,189 to $281,481) Rodriguez recently had Bill Clinton come stump for him a real sign the race is very tight but winnable.
  98. TX-27: Solomon Ortiz (D), Blake Farenthold (R). NRCC is trying to hype this race a little but it seems hard to believe Farenthold who has no cash on hand is a threat.
  99. VA-02: Glenn Nye (D), Scott Rigell (R). Most polling of this race has Nye down single digits. Not a good place to be for an incumbent.
  100. VA-05: Tom Perriello (D), Robert Hurt (R). Recent Roanoke College poll has Hurt +5. The Hill found Perriello 44 – Hurt 45. Given how narrowly Perriello won this seat in a Dem wave election, the fact that it is even still close is surprising. (Update 10/28: Obama is coming to campaign for Perriello, and the freshman Dem is going to need the help.  A SurveyUSA poll out today has it Perriello 43 – Hurt 51.)
  101. VA-09: Rick Boucher (D), Morgan Griffith (R). NRCC internals show the race tied but a recent SurveyUSA poll found Boucher 51 – Griffith 41. Boucher doesn’t seem to be in real danger. (Update 10/26: I may have spoken too soon when I said Boucher looked safe. The latest SuveryUSA poll out today has the race effectively tied Griffith 47 – Boucher 46. It is a real toss up.)
  102. VA-11: Gerry Connelly (D), Keith Fimian (R). Fimian has raised slightly more than Connelly so far which is always a danger sign for incumbents.
  103. WA-02:Rick Larsen (D), John Koster (R). SurveyUSA has Koster beating incumbent Larseon 50-46. A look at the top two primary results would indicate Larsen in better shape. In this normally high turnout state the GOP enthusiasm gap probably does not count for much.
  104. WA-03: (Open) Brian Baird’s seat, GOP Jaime Herrera ahead by 3. A look at the top two primary results would indicate this seating going to the Republican. (Update 10/28: Newest SurveyUSA poll has it Herrera 50 – Denny Heck (D) 46. Race remains effectively unchanged.)
  105. WA-09: Adam Smith (D), Dick Muri (R). Muri is within three points of Democratic incumbent Smith. That is roughly where the race should end up, based on the top-two primary results. (Update 10/28: SurveyUSA poll shows the race still close, Smith 49 – Muri 43.)
  106. WI-7: (Open) The Hill puts Sean Duffy up by 9 in this open-seat race against state lawmaker Julie Lassa (D) for Obey’s old seat
  107. WI-08: The Hill finds incumbent Steve Kagen (D) just one point behind Reid Ribble (R).
  108. WV-01: (Open) Democrat Mike Olivero has a three point lead over David McKinley for Mollohan’s old seat According to The Hill.