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Having reviewed the entirety of races for the House of Representatives in what is supposed to be a GOP “wave” election, I find that as of now, this wave is a mile wide, but barely an inch deep.
Going district by district, you could make the case that Republicans on a good night could net 70 seats by narrowly winning many swing districts where the polling is close and the GOP candidate seems to be gaining. By the same token, though, there is a reasonable district-by-district argument for how Democrats could keep the majority with many narrow wins, especially if their GOTV operation can close some of the projected partisan turnout gap.
While there is no doubt the GOP will make big gains on election night, the plausible range of pickups is incredibly wide. Depending on if the national mood breaks one way or another, dozens of seats could be won or lost by very narrow margins.
With that in mind, here are 98 hotly contested races that Firedoglake will be watching closely over the next 10 days. . . and in the case of a few of them, maybe even longer than that.
- AL-02: Bobby Bright (D) has been bringing home the bacon to his district, but will it be enough to keep him ahead of Martha Roby (R)? He’s taking local heat for accepting ads from the Chamber of Commerce when the White House is attacking them for accepting foreign money. Roby outraised Bright for the 3Q, but Bright has more cash on hand ($578,694 to $300,271). DCCC polling have him with a huge 12 point lead, one of the largest for any “endangered” Democrats they have released.
- AR-01: (Open) Marion Berry’s seat. Republican Rick Crawsford is ahead by 12 according to the Hill. This race is a likely lose.
- AR-02: (Open) Vic Snyder’s old seat. Another red district open seat almost assure to go to Republicans. GOP Tim Griffith lead by 12 according to Talk Business.
- AR-03: New Talk Business Research and Hendrix College poll shows Mike Ross (D) in good shape going into the election, leading Beth Anne Rankin (R) 52-34. Like Mike Beebe, the poll indicates Ross is a “rare Democrat” who is not losing Independents in Arkansas.
- AZ-01: Kirkpatrick (D) was triaged by the DCCC two weeks ago, but Stu Rothenberg says they’re back in again. Two weeks ago The Hill poll found Kirkpatrick losing 39-46.
- AZ-03: Daily Kos/PPP has Jon Hubbard (D) ahead of Ben Quayle (R) 46-44. It would be a thing of beauty for Quayle to get whipped in an R+9 district in an election year with a huge GOP wave.
- AZ-05: Harry Mitchell (D) is trailing Dave Schweikert (R) by three points according to a recent The Hill poll. Mitchell does hold a huge fund raising advantage at this point though.
- AZ-07: Two recent polls show Raul Grijalva (D) in trouble. Summit Consulting Group showed McClurg (R) leading Grijalva 39-37 on Oct. 5-6, and Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies found Grijalva leading by 2 points on Sept. 29. Sarah Palin endorsed McClurg on Monday. The DCCC has entered the race, spending $63,000 for the cash poor Grijalva. Sen. John McCain and Jon Kyl are up with an ad trying to whip up anger over Grijalva supporting the boycott of his own state. Anger over that issue could make the closeness of this race an outlier.
- AZ-08: Gabby Giffords (D), Jesse Kelly (R). Giffords has an enormous cash advantage, with $1,344,412 cash on hand, to Kelly’s $113,878.
- CA-11: Jerry McNerney (D), David Harmer (R). McNerney has $1.5 million to Harmer’s $489,278. SurveyUSA poll from last week found Harmer with a six point lead.
- CA-18: Dennis Cardoza (D), Mike Berryhill (R). Cardoza $508,064 to Berryhill’s $5,920, but Berryhill has been a self-funder. SurveyUSA had Cardoza 50-44 on October 5-6.
- CA-20: GOP Challenger Andy Vidak has more cash on hand than Jim Costa (D), $206,775 to $164,493. A SurveyUSA poll from over a month ago had Costa 48 to Vidak’s 46 in this district hard hit by the foreclosure crisis. The DCCC started spending in Costa’s district this week.
- CA-44: Dem Bill Hedrick come very close to defeating incumbent Republican Ken Calvert and is trying again, although this year the climate is much less favorable for Hedrick.
- CA-47: Loretta Sanchez’s (D) untoward comments on Spanish radio has left an opening for Van Tran. Republican pollsters McHenry & Associates recently showed Sanchez 45 – Tran 43.
- CO-03: John Salazar (D), Scott Tipton (R). An indication of what a mess the independent expenditure extravaganza is for the GOP: Americans United for Life went up on the air with an ad attacking his brother, Ken Salazar.
- CO-o4: Betsey Markey (D) has only $307,781 on hand to Cory Gardner’s (R) $1,127,739. The DCCC triaged her. Two weeks ago Markey was slightly behind 41-44 according to a poll from The Hill. Too bad Gardner was up on the air attacking her for a vote made by Ed Markey. #amateurhour
- CO-07: Ed Perlmutter (D), Ryan Frazier (R). Magellan (R): 40 Frasier-39 Perlmutter
- CT-04: Jim Himes (D), Dan Debicella (R). Himes only has $669,731 on hand to Debicella’s $447,488. Merriman River Group/CT Capitol Report: Himes 49 – Debicella 47
- CT-05: Chris Murphy (D), Sam Caliguri (R). Merriman River Group/CT Capitol Report: Caligiuri 50 – Murphy 44, 10/3-5
- FL-02: Allen Boyd (D), Steve Southerland (R). On Tuesday, Sunshine State News/VSS showed Southerland +12.
- FL-08: Alan Grayson (D), Dan Webster (R). Grayson raised more money than any Democrat in 3Q, and now enjoys a $1,209,617 advantage to Webster. It is very rare for an incumbent with such a massive fund raising advantage to lose. If he can get it within 2 points, Grayson runs a crack turnout operation. A Sunshine State News poll had it Grayson 36 – Webster 43.
- FL-22: Ron Klein (D) $270,498 to Allen West (R) $1,629,394. Wilson Research Strategies (R) had West 48 – Klein 42 on 9/20-22, and Sunshine State News has West over Klein by 47-43 on 10/19. West is so down right crazy though it is hard to imagine undecideds don’t break for Klein on election day.
- FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas (D), Sandy Adams (R). Hamilton Campaigns (D): Kosmas 45 – Adams 43 9/22-23. A NRCC poll found Adams with a 12 point lead. The DCCC has not been spending for Kosmas.
- GA-02: Sanford Bishop (D), Mike Keown (R) Lester & Associates (D): Bishop 50 – Keown 40 10/7-10
- GA-08: Jim Marshall (D), Austin Scott (R): Grove Insight (D): Marshall 48-Scott 36 9/13-15
- HI-01: Charles Djou (R), Colleen Hanabusa (D) The Hill/Penn Schoen Berland: Djou 45 – Hanabusa 41 10/2-7. Traditionally it has been very hard to poll the Japanese community of Hawaii which is likely to support Hanabusa. For example Hanabusa significantly outperformed the polls in the special election.
- IA-01: Leonard Boswell (D), Brad Zaun. An internals Boswell poll has him winning 47-38 and an internal DCCC poll has him winning 49-41
- IA-02: Dave Loebsack (D), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) (Rothenberg named Loebseck one of five Dems who could be surprised). It should be noted Iowa has suffered relatively little in this economic downturn and has unemployment of only 6.6%, which should help Democrats.
- ID-01: Walt Minnick (D), Paul Labrador (R). This is a seat Democrats should have lost but Minnick will likely be saved by the simple fact that Labrador is simply truly horrible nominee.
- IL-08: Melissa Bean (D), Joe Walsh (R). $924,678 to $7,130: America/QuincyNews.org: Bean 41 – Walsh 41 9/28
- IL-10: (Open) This is one of Democrats best picks. In Republican Mark Kirk’s old district Democrat Dan Seals is up by 12 according to The Hill.IL-11: Debbie Halvorson, Adam Kinsinger. The Hill/ANGA: Kinzinger 49 – Halvorson 31 9/28-30. Even her internal polls show her trailing by four.
- IL-14: Bill Foster (D), Randy Hultgren (R): The Tarrance Group (R): Hultgren 44 – Foster 38. The Hill/ANGA: Hultgren 43 – Foster 42.
- IL-17: Phil Hare (D), Robert Schilling (R). Public Opinion Strategies (R): Hare 38 – Schilling 37 9/26-27. The Hill/ANGA: Schilling 45 – Haring 38. In comparison to Iowa, Illinois has been hit bad and saw unemployment jump up dramatically to 9.9%.
- IN-02: Joe Donnelly(D), Jackie Walorski (R) EPIC-MRA: Donnelly 48 – Walorksi 39 10/3. Donnelly’s powerful GOTV operation, aided by the UAW, will be an indication of how much early field organizing pays off for the Democrats.
- IN-08: (Open) Republican Larry Bucshon is favored to take Brad Ellsworth’s old seat.
- IN-09: Baron Hill (D), Todd Young (R). The DCCC has dropped big money in defense of Hill, who is fighting to keep his seat.
- KS-3: (Open) Democrat Dennis Moore’s wife Stephene Moore is running to replace him against Kevin Yoder (R). Yoder is viewed as the favorite.
- LA-2: Joseph Cao (R), Cedric Richmond (D). Cao won in this extremely blue seat in 2008 because he was running increased the clearly crooked William Jefferson. Democrats expect to take this blue seat back now that they have a normal candidate.
- LA-3: (Open) GOP Jeff Landry narrowly favored for Melancon’s old seat.
- MA-04: Barney Frank (D). Polling has put him down, but it will cost the GOP a lot of money for a seat they can’t keep. Probably won’t be a priority. Frank has just injected $200,000 of his own money into the race.
- MA-10: (Open) This is a very close race between Republican Jeffrey Perry and Democrat William Keating. WGBH poll has Keating 46 – Perry 43.
- MD-01: Frank Kratovil (D), Andy Harris (R). In this deep read district Kratovil should be trailing but double digits in this environment but he has been doing remarkably well. Polling has him within the margin of error and the DCCC is still spending heavily on the race. The Hill/ANGA had it Harris 43 – Kratovil 40.
- MI-1: (Open) The race to replace Dem Bart Stupak is very close. The Hill found Gary McDowell (D) 39 – Dan Benishek (R) 42
- MI-07: Mark Schauer (D), Tim Walberg (R) $1,313,384 to $451,085. The Hill/ANGA had the race tied and a new Detroit Free Press poll has Schauer up by six. With a massive fund raising advantage and tied in the polls Schauer is in better shape than most endangered freshman right now.
- MI-09: Gary Peters (D), Andrew Rackowski (R). In September Rossman Group/Team Telcom: Raczkowski 45 – Peters 41 but Detroit Free Press has it Peter 48 – Raczkowski 43.
- MI-15: It was hard to believe John Dingall (D) was in trouble when a poll in early October showed him trailing Rob Steele (R) by 4 points. A poll released yesterday by Free Press showed him leading Steele by 17 points, but Dingell isn’t taking any chances: Bill Clinton comes to Ann Arbor on Sunday to campaign for him.
- MN-01: Tim Walz (D), Randy Lee Demmer (R). A Recent SurveyUSA poll had Walz 47 – Demmer 42.
- MO-04: Ike Skelton (D), Vicky Hartzler (R). The DCCC is spending big to protect this old bull, and it looks like the NRCC is triaging Hartzler.
- MS-01: Travis Childer (D) internals from Anzalone Liszt (D): Childers 46-Alan Nunnelee (R) 41 8/30-9/1. The Hill poll found it Childers 39 – Nunnelee 44.
- MS-04: Gene Taylor (D), Steve Palazzo (R). Taylor’s internals say he is up by eight, but a poll commissioned by Palazzo released yesterday has him up by 2.
- NC-02 Bob Etheridge (D), Renee Ellmers (R)
- NC-07: Mike McIntyre (D), Ilario Pantano (R). SuveryUSA Poll from end of Sept has it effectively tied McIntyre 45 – Pantano 46
- NC-08: Larry Kissell (D), Harold Johnson (R). This another race the DCCC is investing heavily in. SurveyUSA found it also effectively tied Kissell 46 – Johnson 45.
- NC-11: Heath Shuler (D), Jeff Miller (R) SurveyUSA: Shuler 45-Miller 44 7/22-25
- ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy (D), Rick Berg (R) Rasmussen: Berg 48 – Pomeroy 45 9/20-21
- NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter (D), Frank Guinta (R). The Hill poll just out has Shea-Porter down by 5, Shea-Porter 42 – Guinta 47.
- NH-02: (Open) Ann McLane Kuster (D), Charlie Bass (R). Kuster manage to build of significant grass roots support and significantly out fund raising former Congressman Bass. The Hill found Kuster 42 – Bass 45. The DCCC spending indicates they think they can keep this one. Bass as a former Rep. is probably not the best candidate in this anti-Washington year.
- NJ-03: John Adler (D), Jon Runyon (R) $1,662,763 to $403,662. Rutger-Eagleton Poll from late Sept has Adler in good shape Adlder 40 – Ranyon 31. The presence of an actual third party Tea Party candidate should also help Alder.
- NM-01: Martin Heinrich (D), Jon Barela (R). Albuqurque Journal poll from late Sept. Had Heinrich leading 48-41.
- NM-02: Harry Teague (D), Steve Pearce (R) ($739,771 to $885,854) Teague is under funded and trailing according to The Hill poll Teague 42 – Pearce 46. That is a combo that indicates he is in bad shape.
- NV-03: Dina Titus (D), Joe Heck (R) $1,204,552 to $362,139. This race has been polling extremely close for months and the DCCC is still playing heavily in the district. If Titus lose it will probably have a lot to do with how incredibly Nevada has been hammered by the economic downturn.
- NY-01: Tim Bishop (D), Randy Altschuler (R). The three way GOP primary in this race was brutal and probably hurt Altschuler in the general. Bishops is in good shape with a recent Siena poll (PDF) showing Bishop 51-Altschuler 39.
- NY-19: John Hall (D), Nan Hayworth (R). Recent poll by Monmouth University showed Hall +1. Siena has it Hall 43 – Hayworth 46. The Hill has it tied 43-43. A true toss up.
- NY-20: Scott Murphy (D), Chris Gibson (R). Siena poll from last month had Murphy 54 – Gibson 37 yet Gibson’s recent internals claim he is now up by two.
- NY-22: Maurice Hinchey (D), George Phillips (R). Phillips “good news” internals showed Hinchey leading by seven, but Magellan has them tied 43-43 on 10/19.
- NY-23: Bill Owens (D), Matt Doheny (R). Even without Doug Hoffman splitting the vote Owens is polling well. Siena (PDF) has it Owen 44 – Doheny 39 and that is only if Hoffman supports know he has dropped out to support Doheney.
- NY-24: Mike Arcuri (D), Richard Hanna (R). McLaughlin (R): Hanna 46 – Arcuri 43 10/6-7 but The Hill just found Arcuri with a 10 point lead Arcuri 47 – Hanna 37.
- NY-25: Dan Maffei (D), Ann Marie Buerkle (R). Recent Siena poll sponsored by the Syracuse Post-Standard says Maffei +12. Clinton was to campaign for Maffei this week. In all the New York races Democrats might benefit from just how horrible a candidate,Carl Palidino, the Republican nominee for governor is. He should make it harder for the GOP to run turnout in the state and might be tainting the party as crazy in the mind of some independent voters this election.
- NY-29: (Open) Massa’s old seat is viewed as a likely GOP pickup for Tom Reed
- OH-01: Steve Driehaus (D), Steve Chabot (R). Despite a tough race the DCCC is giving Driehaus only token support. With a SurveyUSA poll from earlier this month show Chabot 53- Driehaus 41 the seat looks lost.
- OH-06: Charlie Wilson (D), Bill Johnson (R)
- OH-13: Betty Sutton (D), Tom Ganley (R). Ayres McHenry (R): Sutton 43-Ganley 41 8/16-19.
- OH-15: Mary Jo Kilroy (D), Steve Stivers (R), $187,863 to $1,278,985. Jo Kilroy has been cut off by the DCCC and The Hill found her down by nine. This seat looks lost.
- OH-16: John Boccieri (D), Jim Renacci (R). The Hill found Boccieri 39 – Renacci 42.
- OH-18: Zack Space (D), Bob Gibbs (R) ($1,392,458 to $215,308). Both the GOP and DCCC seem to agree Space is in trouble. He has a huge fund raising advantage which might end up saving him. For all the Ohio races the problem for Democrats is the economy. The state has been hammered in the downturn. If Dem lose big here the foreclosure crisis and unemployment is probably the big cause. The one piece of good news for Democrats in Ohio though is they seem to be doing a good job of getting their supporters to vote early.
- OR-05: Kurt Schrader (D), Scott Brunn (R). Internals from Brunn show him winning by four. Oregon is a vote by mail state though so I don’t think it will see a large turnout gap which should benefit Schrader, but SurveyUSA has him down 51-41 to Brunn on 10/19.
- PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper (D), Mike Kelly (R). The Hill has Dahlkemper down by 13 points. She appears to be a dead women walking.
- PA-07: (Open) The race he is effectively tied According to The Hill: Bryan Lentz (D) 39 – Patrick Meehan (R) 40.PA-08: Patrick Murphy, Mike Fitzpatrick. Monmouth poll found Murphy 46 – Fitzpatrick 51 but recently The Hill has it Murphy 46 – Fitzpatrick 43. Correction: The DCCC is not spending to try to save Murphy but maybe he was triage too soon. Based on this article the list said DCCC had “triaged” Murphy. The DCCC has told me they are still running ads. The article does specify that the ad buy was only changed but not fully cut off.
- PA-10: Chris Carney (D), Tom Marino (R). Last week the Times Leader Poll found Marino 44 – Carney 38 but The Hill has this race tied 41-41.
- PA-11: Paul Kanjorski (D), Lou Barletta (R). The Times Leader Poll Barletta 43 – Kanjorski 41. Recent polling of the PA Senate race has shown Democrat Joe Sestak improve. It could be this is just a case of Democrats in the state getting more engaged helping the party across the board by closing the project turnout gap.
- SC-05: John Spratt (D), Mick Mulvaney (R)
- SD-AL: Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D), Kristi Noem (R). An internal for Herseth-Sandlin from late Sept had her winning 51-38. A DCCC poll from earlier this month had her winning 50-41 but a Rasmussen poll from two weeks ago has it Noem 47 – Herseth-Sandlin 44.
- TN-04: Lincoln Davis (D), Scott DesJarlais (R). Desjarlais internals have him winning 45-40.
- TN-06: (Open) Bart Gordon’s seat is likely going to the GOP Diane Black
- TX-17: Chet Edwards (D), Bill Flores (R). Edwards has a big fund raising advantage but his district is extremely red and this is a bad year is project to see a lot of party line voting. Even Edwards internals have him down four.
- TN–08: (Open) Republican Stephen Fincher ahead in Tanner’s old seat by 10 points. Dem’s have effectively forfeited this seat
- TX-23: Ciro Rodriguez (D), Quico Canseco (R) ($108,189 to $281,481) Rodriguez recently had Bill Clinton come stump for him a real sign the race is very tight but winnable.
- TX-27: Solomon Ortiz (D), Blake Farenthold (R). NRCC is trying to hype this race a little but it seems hard to believe Farenthold who has no cash on hand is a threat.
- VA-02: Glenn Nye (D), Scott Rigell (R). Most polling of this race has Nye down single digits. Not a good place to be for an incumbent.
- VA-05: Tom Perriello (D), Robert Hurt (R). Recent Roanoke College poll has Hurt +5. The Hill found Perriello 44 – Hurt 45. Given how narrowly Perriello won this seat in Dem wave election the fact it is even still close is surprising.
- VA-09: Rick Boucher (D), Morgan Griffith (R). NRCC internals show the race tied but a recent SurveyUSA poll found Boucher 51 – Griffith 41. Boucher doesn’t seem to be in real danger
- VA-11: Gerry Connelly (D), Keith Fimian (R). Fimian has raised slightly more than Connelly so far which is always a danger sign for incumbents.
- WA-02:Rick Larsen (D), John Koster (R). SurveyUSA has Koster beating incumbent Larseon 50-46. A look at the top two primary results would indicate Larsen in better shape. In this normally high turnout state the GOP enthusiasm gap probably does not count for much.
- WA-03: (Open) Brian Baird’s seat, GOP Jaime Herrera ahead by 3. A look at the top two primary results would indicate this seating going to the Republican.
- WA-09: Dick Muri (R) within 3 of Democrat incumbent Adam Smith. That is roughly where the race should end up based on the top two primary results.
- WI-7: (Open) The Hill puts Sean Duffy up by 9 in this open-seat race against state lawmaker Julie Lassa (D) for Obey’s old seat
- WI-08: The Hill finds incumbent Steve Kagen (D) just one point behind Reid Ribble (R).
- WV-01: (Open) Democrat Mike Olivero has a three point lead over David McKinley for Mollohan’s old seat According to The Hill.
69 Comments
Some are worth doing GOTV calls for – Grijalva and Grayson in particular.
It doesn’t matter who wins TX 17. They’re both Republicans.
That is disconcerting, because Calvert is a dishonest, corrupt, pander-to-the-lowest-common-denominator, POS dirtbag – and that’s putting it nicely.
Quayl(e) is behind in a Republican district? Funny.
Somehow I feel like Eeyore. No matter what happens, the DFH’s lose.
NC race between Richard Burr and his opponent is going to be a good one too. The female opponent has worked hard to get the truth out.
Also, here is another post about the GOP hypocracy.
http://seminal.firedoglake.com/diary/77695
I don’t see how anyone could think CA-47 is in play. Even if 100% of Whites and Asians vote against Sanchez, they would still be outnumbered two to one by Hispanics.
Except for CA-11, which had an unprecedented demographic shift, none of the heavily gerrymandered California districts are competitive. That’s why we need “YES on PROP 20″ and “NO on 27.”
How does the cell phone issue factor into the polling? No cell phone numbers available to call people.
You’re not really representing the polling data accurately except to reflect the product The Hill/DCCC polling. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/ shows a “search by race” feature.
For instance, Maryland’s 1st District had a Monmouth University Poll out showing an 11pt lead for Harris (53-42) from yesterday. You’re citing a month old poll.
Or in Washington’s 3rd you’re citing a 3pt (it’s 2) The Hill poll from two weeks ago, but the latest poll is SurveyUSA with the R in the lead by 11.
What gives? It’s perilous to put all your eggs in one polling firm’s approach.
Here’s the bottom line. If there are 90-100 seats in potential reach, 70 in realistic tossup, then the expectation of Republican gains should be roughly in the 50-60 range (not including likely losses in LA2, DE open, HI, etc).
There is really no way the Democrats hold the House without say Osama Bin Laden caught. It may have looked like an outside shot in Mid-September, but that’s when polls historically curve more toward Dems. That said, the Reps are unlikely to take the Senate and will come 1-2 votes short.
Ultimately 2012 will result in stagnation. Obama will bring out more AA/Progressive Dems that will unseat some Reps who win and are in rented territory. The outcome will likely leave one party or the other with the slimmest of margins.
Calvert has a lot of company this cycle.
It’s mind-boggling how divorced voters are from reality. It’s as though they enter the ballot booth and check the box for the last name they heard in the teevee jingle.
Gee, it wouldn’t be the Dem sellout on the Public Option, the watering down of FinReg and bankruptcy reform, the abandonment of EFCA, coming back to bite Dems would it?
Nah. Couldn’t be.
Or (in this case) the last One Billion signs on every street they traveled over.
Couldn’t the pull a John McCain and say if they win they’ll catch him right after the election because they know where he is?
There are a lot of factors at work when it comes to cell phones and polling. First, consider where you’re polling. Virginia, for instance, doesn’t register voters per party so you’re relying upon voters to provide you with an honest assessment of their intentions. However, if you study exit polling you will find that more people say they will vote than actually do–it’s psychological. People want to be seen as voting.
Some states like Maryland have room for a phone number on voter registration forms, but don’t require it. Other states do not have a spot for phone number.
Pollsters will typically use a phone-match list they have (there are firms that will cross-reference voters to phone numbers, including cell phones…ever wonder why everyone wants you to register with a phone number on things?) and then conduct their sample from this list.
Some folks worry that younger people on cell phones won’t be contacted, but that’s more of a popular misconception than anything else. By the way, roughly 70% of your actual voters will be above the age of 40.
Congressman Tim Griffin.
Three incredibly scary words.
Absolutely Yes/20 & NO/27.
Did you see the mailer with the DVD showing some of the worst districts on the cover? Looked more like a Rorshak test than a Congressional district.
Despite your sarcasm, it isn’t the sell out of the public option. If they had pursued the public option losses would likely be 10+ seats more. Look at public opinion polling on the health care legislation as it passed. Even among the adult population (we’re not talking voters), AP estimates a -5 rating for the bill. People just don’t like it. Take your pick of reasons, but the public option’s polling was far worse. Politically-speaking, pursuing the public option would be like walking into a gun fight with a knife.
True. Teevee has become lame compared to assault-by-highway.
OH-18 is in my opinion still safe for Space. Just going by grocery store chit-chat.
OH-15, oh man, the ads are relentless. I wish the DCCC would back Kilroy.
Thanks for noticing us.
Ex-Congressman Chris Carney, on the other hand?
Thing of beauty.
Nothing on Peter DeFazio in Oregon? A progressives progressive who is going up against a candidate that lives in a militia compound and who gets all his money from a Wall Street hedge fund manager. How could FDL miss this race?
Isn’t looking too good for Ca Dems.
I got a mailer from Angle – don’t know why but it creeped me out.
I don’t know what the DCCC is doing- pulling out from under Kilroy after the democrats and independents in the region finally had someone to vote for? No wonder gerrymandering works!
…etc…
OH18 safe for Space? Even his own people don’t think that. The NRCC & AFP targeted 18 because he’s vulnerable.
Terrible anti-Brunn teevee ads from the DCCC here. Is it oil? Is it coffee? What has Brunn to do with either? Just awful 1980s animation with no discernible thread — some Dem consultant’s brother-in-law musta got a contract he shouldn’t have.
Disagree.
Polling shows that 3 out of 4 people wanted a public option. That’s a lotta people.
Another more recent poll shows a majority of people favor a public option.
THe very first political mailer I got in my new Portland address — not forwarded, actually mailed to me here — was from Sharron Angle, a fundraising letter. Hadn’t registered to vote, hadn’t changed my drivers license even. Creepy! Although somebody spent some money to buy a bad list — why would I ever give Sharron Angle money?
Especially given the name they used on the front of the envelope (I have bunches of variants, helps me keep track of who sells my name): my full first middle last and number. Weird.
Accountability Now !
You misinterpret data. The unpopularity of the health care reform is because it doesn’t go far enough. The public option scored into the 70s for popularity but was traded for campaign contributions.
The only polling on this race is paid for by the right-wing, and it shows DeFazio ahead by 6.
Art Robinson is a loon. Not sure why this race falls into a diary called “races worth watching” except for its entertainment value; Rachel Maddow had Robinson on recently, that was fun.
Must. Stay. Positive. Hold my fire and my ire for a few more days. Self-censoring here.
Or four years later, whatevs!
Oh, was he that crazy Bastid that wouldn’t shut his yap?
DeFazio was on Thom Hartman today and indicated that the loon is gaining traction and DeFazio’s negatives are going up. Never under estimate if not the ignorance of the public but their penchant to being manipulated like marionettes.
Thankfully in a few days I can tell Blanche Lincoln, “kthxbai!”
I feel the same about McNerney
p.s. did you happen to catch Dan Savage on MSNBC about 40 min ago ?
Stupaks district is the Appalachia of the midwest. Plenty of people more than willing to vote against their own interests.
She’s down 31 points !
Well, I could be wrong. We’ll see. I think he’s got some very effective ads painting his opponent as a NAFTA-loving free-trader who doesn’t give a damn about Americans making stuff here.
Like…Nevada Angle? And you’re in CA?
Gotta look forward, not backward…
yep -Ca.
Yeah, that’s creepy, alright…
Teddy. My regrets to you. What a horrible house-warming gift. What the hell kind of list do you think you got on? Rich people jumping off the California Ship for Portland? It doesn’t make sense to me. But, you know.
It made me wonder, demi.
Really wonder. It was one of those four-page double-sided aimed at oldsters kind of fund-letters, lots of “written-in” exclamation points and triple-underlining — SCARY SCARY SCARY.
Kept it to show to FDL’s resident election and fundraising experts when they arrived for their Portland visit two weeks later. We all got a kick outta it, but it remains a mystery. What list must it be?
Oh — here’s the really funny part! Two weeks ago, to the same name & address: GWB liberry fund solicitation!
It’s that creepy big brother wonder. Still, I’m sure it has nothing to do with FDL, for sure. Something to do with P’s getting his license? I’m just pulling shit out of my head, of course. I can’t imagine how you got there. But, then, I never get spam and I know other people do. I just don’t know.
Quick! Hide! They’re after you.
The polling for most of these House races is so very sparse and unreliable. Even where a public poll (as opposed to a partisan poll) is available, they’re usually from a second or third-tier polling outfit with poor sample sizes and uncertain/non-existent likely voter models.
Why do we have such very poor polling for these critical House races? Why aren’t the parties and/or campaigns releasing more of their own internal polling? We’re kind of forced to guess by where the money’s going from the national committees.
Some people are angered by Papa Bears. Some people love them.
That’s total bullshit.
The PO wasn’t opposed by PEOPLE, it was opposed by Teabaggers. Its disappearance means people are now required to purchsase insurance from for-profit companies. How is that reform?
Welcome to FDL, h20andoil, and here’s a little friendly advice: Revisionist history does NOT play here.
Wow.
You can always tell when a right winger is lying. His fingers are moving.
Dude (dudette?), no matter how many times you say it, type it, repeat it, or want want want it to be so, it’s still bullshit. The public option always was (and is) popular, and the public wanted MORE from health care reform, which is why this one is unpopular. Single payer even gets majority approval in poll after poll after poll after poll…..
It is sooooooooooooooooo funny how the right constantly must rewrite history and make facts up because reality and facts really are liberal biased. It’s no wonder they live in a fantasy world. They can’t stand how ‘librul’ the real one is.
O/T
Anybody watching Dylan??
LOL, man now that is ONE DOOD that gets it right and don’t do no damn partisan wrangling. WOW! That guy just reamed on the Democratic strategist AND the Republican one about how Democrat Bill Clinton along with the Republican Congress through repealing some laws and enacting new ones set in place the “biggest financial meltdown in history.”
GIVE ‘EM ALL HELL DYLAN!!! doG knows they deserve it.
I was going to reply to H2Oandoil but others here beat me to it, and did such a good job, too.
Guess we have another drive-by DLC-paid troll here for the run-up to the bloodbath.
I’ve made a few comments about Dylan, but upstairs. That bit, where the two Black Journalists were defending Juan Williams was interesting. And, don’t anyone dare call me a racist. They self id’d.
I have been watching Bobby Bright’s ads. I can understand why he is down.
The public option was the phonied up, single payer. Still, the public option would have helped the Dems, and the “enthusiasm gap” would have been a lot less. Just voting against the whole POS as it now stands would have helped Feingold and a few others. People don’t like sell-outs and rubberstampers.
Every pollster has his or her agenda. I remember the public option polling quite well.
I like Dylan. I used to watch Rachel and Ed and Keith too. But IMO they’ve started being a little too pro-Democratic party for me lately. I know that’s a biased statement, and it may not even be fair, but I’m so disgusted with these Democrats in Washington I may have lost the ability to be fair and unbiased about them.
But Dylan tells it straight and doesn’t let party come before facts. I like that. I like that a lot.
Making over the top racist statements as a Democratic tends to hurt you pretty badly.
I honestly don’t think it is flipping, not happening
Uh, “corrupt,” “crooked,” “crazy” to be inserted here?
IL -08 — isn’t Melissa Bean one we’re going to be happy to wave bye-bye to?
MI – 15 — Dingell is still alive??? Somehow I thought he’d croaked.
NC – 11 – I wouldn’t mind seeing a Repub beat Shuler. He’s an idiot.
This really shows why it’s worthless to give money to the DCCC. They make stupid choices.
Has it hurt Maxine Waters pretty badly?
Well, he was clearly William Jefferson, so maybe that’s what Jon intended.
Melissa Bean, Heath Shuler, Chris Carney, even Jim Himes — all of whom I gave money to at one time or another, mostly long ago — happy to see every one of them Ex-.
Yup.
Do your own homework.
Or rely on someone you trust to vet your choices, if you don’t have time to pay attention.
I’ve given to only one candidate this cycle, gay married dad Steve Pougnet, who I hope beats serial starfucker Mary Bono Mack in Palm Springs. Oh, and pot. I’ve given pot a wee bit of money this year, just because.
Cao seemed to have a mind of his own at times.
Very helpful and inclusive list – thanks Jon.
I want to ditto egregious on that!